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Can the Oil Reserves In The Newly Independent States help if the House of Saud Falls?

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posted on Aug, 23 2004 @ 07:57 AM
Any interuption of the Saudi oil production will have catastropic effects on the economis of the world. Be it an internal revolution like one that overthrew the Shah of Iran, or a terrorist attack that destorys thier production capacity it will cripple the world. How would we make up such a huge shortfall in the near term? One aspect that has largely not been looked at in the discussion of the effects of ME oil on the US is the potential of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union. They may have to potential to bring stability to the global market for a while. More importantly, these countries seem interested in western help to develop thier petroleum reserves.

Kazakhstan sits astride the northeast portion of the Caspian Sea and claims most of the Sea's biggest known oil fields. Kazakhstan's combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been estimated to be between 9 and 17.6 billion barrels (comparable to OPEC members Algeria on the low end and Qatar on the high end). Although only a minor world oil exporter in 2002, Kazakhstan is poised to become a more significant player in world oil markets over the next decade.

Kazakhstan produced approximately 939,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of total liquids in 2002 and consumed only 140,000 bbl/d, resulting in net exports of 799,000 bbl/d. Markets for exported Kazakhstani oil are growing rapidly, with oil being delivered to world markets through the Black Sea (via Russia) and the Persian Gulf (via swaps with Iran), as well as some additional traffic northward to Russia via pipeline and rail.

[Quote]Azerbaijan's oil production (total liquids) averaged 318,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2002, of which approximately 310,000 bbl/d was crude oil. This represents a 4% increase over 2001 production, and builds upon five consecutive years of growth (see graph). At the same time, domestic petroleum consumption in Azerbaijan has fallen since independence, resulting in a growing margin for net petroleum exports (see graph). Azerbaijan exported approximately 178,000 bbl/d in 2002, most of which was routed to Russia, Turkey, and Italy.

Estimates of Azerbaijanís proven crude oil reserves range between 7 and 13 billion barrels according to industry journals and government sources. The countryís largest hydrocarbon structures are located offshore in the Caspian Sea and account for most of the country's current petroleum production. The majority of Azerbaijanís oil output (64% in 2001) comes from the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).

Ukraine has 395 million barrels of proven oil reserves, the majority of which are located in the eastern Dnieper-Donetsk basin. Although Ukraine has made efforts at exploration, particularly in its sector of the Sea of Azov, oil production has remained relatively flat since independence (see graph). Consumption, on the other hand, has fallen dramatically , from 813,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 1992 to 296,000 bbl/d in 2002 (see graph). Despite this decline in consumption, Ukraine remains highly dependent on imported oil, most of which comes from Russia with lesser amounts coming from Kazakhstan. In 2002, net oil imports totaled roughly 212,000 bbl/d, representing 70% of consumption

Estimates of the Caspian Sea Region's proved crude oil reserves vary widely by source. For this reason, we have estimated proven oil reserves as a range between 17 and 33 billion barrels, which is comparable to OPEC member Qatar on the low end, and the United States on the high end. In 2002, regional oil production reached roughly 1.6 million barrels per day, comparable to annual production from South America's second largest oil producer, Brazil. By 2010, the countries of the Caspian Sea Region are forecast to produce between 3 and 4.7 million barrels per day, which exceeds annual production from South America's largest oil producer, Venezuela

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[edit on 23-8-2004 by FredT]

[edit on 23-8-2004 by FredT]


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