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SO MUCH FOR DOOMSDAY: Comet Elenin breaking apart...

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posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 03:56 PM
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Originally posted by Aloysius the Gaul

Originally posted by Nastradamus
Does anyone else find it odd that this comet comes around every 3000-something years and it just happens to "break apart" while it's within observable distance of the Earth... actually, I thought it was confirmed that there were "multiple" objects inbound with Elenin... hmmm


Given that it's never actually come around" earth before at all...EVER, yeah - I find it amazing that anyone thinks it comes around every 3000 years!!


edit on 31-8-2011 by Aloysius the Gaul because: (no reason given)


Isn't it just that until now, we've not had the technology to observe it before now?

I had heard that based on it's orbital trajectory, it's passage through our area of space had been plotted back through time..not so then?




posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 03:59 PM
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reply to post by Illustronic
 



Density fluctuation of the comet will not change it's trajectory, and CME's are electrons and protons and possibly various heavier atoms such as helium and oxygen but the point is these are atomic and subatomic particles and no matter how fast they are traveling they simply can only effect particles with similar mass, like a comet tail and coma. There is insufficient mass to alter the inertia of a body larger than atomic particles. Any thoughts of electromagnetic radiation causing inertial changes is fantasy because electricity has no mass.


I wasn't saying that density fluctuations had anything to do with it. In fact, in general I don't think that the comet body can exhibit density fluctuations. I was referring to density only in the sense that the comet's density would be a key factor in determining the outcome of a collision.

I agree that CME's are made up of protons and electrons. I also understand that there may be ions of other elements up to the atomic mass of Oxygen. While electrons have minimal mass, protons do have mass. So, with respect to their inability to impart a force on matter other than particles of their own size, I would have to disagree.

One practical example of this is the Solar Sail. While the solar wind pressure is not great, it does have a large enough effect that it can be used as a means of locomotion in space.

Here's a rudimentary calculation of the force of 1 teaspoon of H2O impacting a non-elastic stationary object at the average speed of a CME:
p=mv (linear momentum = mass * velocity)
- Mass of 1tsp of H2O = 4.93E-03 kg
- Average CME velocity = 4.89E+05 m/s
p = (4.93E-03 kg)*(4.89E+05m/s) = 2.41E+03 kg-m/s

F=dp/dt (force = (change in momentum)/(change in time))
- assume instantaneous deceleration of teaspoonful of H2O @ 1ms against stationary object
F=(2.41E+03 kg-m/s)/(1.0E-03 s) = 2.41E+06 kg-m/s^2

This is approximately equal to dropping 1 metric ton from 2.5 meters onto a very hard surface. (1 ton from the top of an 8 foot step ladder)

Even when a high speed particle impacts another particle that makes up a larger "macro space" object, the momentum imparted on the impacted particle is transferred to the surrounding matrix of particles. The effect of the momentum transfer to the "macro space" object is a function of the elasticity of that object.

Of course the actual energy transfer between the particles is significantly more complicated than that simple example. There are also energy conversion factors to take into consideration. The high energy of the plasma relative to the low energy of the comet body would probably cause some portion of the matter that comprises the comet nucleus to change state.



Without positive verification of the comet actually breaking apart (which still won't alter its trajectory) hasn't anybody thought that the recent CME has just temporarily stripped the comet's tail and coma that diminished its luminosity? I mean we know a comet nucleus (the actual body) in not a very reflective body. I've read an albedo in the ranges of less than 5% as the highest and near 2% as the lower. If I must I can site specific measurements from the NASA Stardust mission on this very topic, and I'm sure any ESA close comet approaches would also bear out the same kinds of readings if they took such readings.


As I recall, the coma stripping theory has been proposed. So, that may be exactly what has happened. I don't think we'll know for a few days whether that's the case or not.

Dex



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 04:04 PM
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Originally posted by Mogget

What caused it to break this time around since this
geezer has been coming around our neighbourhodd every 3000 yrs or so.


No, it hasn't. C/2010 X1 Elenin is a new arrival from the Oort Cloud, where it will have been perturbed by a passing star hundreds of thousands (or maybe even millions) of years ago. It has never had a 3000 year orbit. That figure comes from idiots who have tried to associate this comet with the mythical Nibiru.

The orbital period of C/2010 X1 Elenin after it leaves the planetary region of the Solar System would have been around 11800 years (due mainly to gravitational perturbations by Saturn and Jupiter). However, if the comet is indeed disintegrating, then there will probably be nothing left to make another return in the distant future.
edit on 1-9-2011 by Mogget because: (no reason given)


So, it 'would' have had a return trajectory if it hadn't broken up, one of roughly 12000 years?

And we know that it is a new arrival from the Oort cloud / Kuiper belt because we haven't noticed it before?

12000 years ago, is a long time mate technology was pretty thin on the ground, records don't exist from that period either, apart from the odd hunting spear or cave art.

How do we know it hasn't been around repeatedly before?



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 04:14 PM
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"we" are guessing - based upon what we know of it's current trajectory, and probably influences of gravity.

Basically its period is shortening as it comes under planetary gravitational influence.

It came to our notice on a "hyperbolic trajectory" - which isn't an orbit at all but rather a trajectory where the body will pass by and then coast away to infinity and never return. As I understand it the flip side is that it was never "here" before either, or else it would be on a parabolic orbit already.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 04:15 PM
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reply to post by DexterRiley
 


Cheers for the calculations Dex...made me go cross eyed..honestly.. thanks, now i have two screens!

In my limited comprehension of cometary dynamics, i would imagine that variations in it's trajectory would occur due to many factors. Not least of which could be explosive out gassing, from within the comet itself. If close to a heat source, a portion of the comet's material would out gas, sometimes explosively.

This would act as a prime mover surely? A jet of material, shooting off the asymmetrical surface would push the thing in the opposite direction, despite forward velocity. So variations in orbital trajectory would occur in that respect.

There's also other factors...collisions with other debris, the mass and composition of the object in relation to nearby gravitational bodies, and so on.

Lot's of uncertainties.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 04:17 PM
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reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul
 


I see.

Thanks for the info mate.

Appreciated.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 04:21 PM
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reply to post by ldyserenity
 


He said the same thing I did, a comet coma is a virtual vacuum. You can't even see a comet when the sun is out. That is why I said you would have to be very close to said comet to not see the sun, you see because in reality they are tiny comparatively to, lets, say our moon. In fact, NASA can't even see a comet nucleus with the best detection methods available when a comet passes between the sun and the earth, which is how they determine that comets (that they have tried to image in such situations), have to be less than 50 km in diameter at the most. What you see in images is largely the immediate comet coma, which is highly light reflective, not the body. If you didn't read every page in the thread and get upset that someone points out something already covered, that is not my issue, that is your issue. Don't misdirect/deflect it towards me.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 04:46 PM
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Originally posted by Illustronic
reply to post by DexterRiley
 




One thing to think about with respect to the smaller fragments is the fact that a very large quantity of smaller fragments can also have a devastating impact. Even though those smaller fragments vaporize in our atmosphere and never reach the surface, the aggregate effect of a large quantity of atmospheric entry events can be the heating the planet's atmosphere. As we've seen with global climate change, even small changes in our climate system can have catastrophic effects.


The small changes the school of global warming site are small LONG TERM climate changes, indicating a trend. Very short period climate changes quickly dissipate. I remember during Gulf War One and correct me if I'm mistaken, but I heard even the renown and respected Carl Sagan say that if all of the Kuwaiti oil wells were set ablaze it could have devastating global climate implications, yet it did not. The 1950's nuclear & hydrogen bomb testing did not alter global weather. Earth is subjected to annual meteor showers that don't effect the weather. Mt. Saint Helen and that Indonesian volcanic eruption (KRAKATAU (1883)) changed the short term weather more than things burning up below or in the atmosphere. I remember 1983, it was a relatively cool summer temperature wise where I lived.


I understand that climate change is a LONG TERM process. When one calculates the severity of an event, the end result is the primary factor in determining that level of severity. So, if a catastrophic and irreversible event occurs and the end result is immediate or if the end result is a long term consequence of that event, the end result is still the same. Dead is dead.

The explosive force of a meteor is 100 times greater than 1 gram of TNT. Link So if the average weight of a refrigerator is 180 kg (400 lbs) then that is equivalent to 18000 kg (about 20 tons) of TNT. I don't know how many refrigerators worth of mass there are in Elenin, but I suspect that number could add up quickly.

As you noted, KRAKATAU did have a short term impact on the climate. Other such events had similar or even greater impact. However, that same class of events happening in today's context would have a much more profound influence. Given today's global population, imagine the impact of the loss of only one growing season. The number of deaths due to famine and starvation would truly be apocalyptic.

Dex



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:01 PM
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Originally posted by spikey
reply to post by DexterRiley
 


Cheers for the calculations Dex...made me go cross eyed..honestly.. thanks, now i have two screens!

In my limited comprehension of cometary dynamics, i would imagine that variations in it's trajectory would occur due to many factors. Not least of which could be explosive out gassing, from within the comet itself. If close to a heat source, a portion of the comet's material would out gas, sometimes explosively.

This would act as a prime mover surely? A jet of material, shooting off the asymmetrical surface would push the thing in the opposite direction, despite forward velocity. So variations in orbital trajectory would occur in that respect.

There's also other factors...collisions with other debris, the mass and composition of the object in relation to nearby gravitational bodies, and so on.

Lot's of uncertainties.



I completely understand going cross-eyed looking at all of those numbers. Now, for me, in addition to going cross-eyed I have a full stock of migraine headaches to go along with it.
It's been a while since I played around with that stuff...

I completely agree about the number of uncertainties. There are far too many variable to take into account to actually plot a new trajectory based on a series of chaotic influences. In fact, I believe that the scenario I've laid out is rather improbable and I would go so far as to say that the chances of it occurring are infinitesimal. But it was a fascinating thought experiment and a nice debate.

Dex



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:13 PM
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Perhaps everyone jumped the gun... reports and images are coming in now that Elenin is still intact and growing again. Look it up. It's not over yet!



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:35 PM
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reply to post by AstroBuzz
 


Exactly. It never broke up. It was nothing but a theory because it supposedly had a different glow which there could have been numerous reasons for. ~SheopleNation



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:40 PM
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Originally posted by AstroBuzz
Perhaps everyone jumped the gun... reports and images are coming in now that Elenin is still intact and growing again. Look it up. It's not over yet!

It doesn't matter. Even if it isn't breaking up, its orbit keeps it well away from Earth.

It's simply another average comet, one of many that have previously passed through the inner solar system. No big deal. Even if it does break up, that's fine too. Comets do that from time-to-time.


edit on 9/1/2011 by Soylent Green Is People because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:44 PM
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Originally posted by AstroBuzz
Perhaps everyone jumped the gun... reports and images are coming in now that Elenin is still intact and growing again. Look it up. It's not over yet!


Links??

If you're going to say something like this the least you could do is provide links to these new reports and images!



posted on Sep, 2 2011 @ 12:37 AM
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Elenin the Overhyped as this comet should be known around here from here on out is a non threat--surprise, surprise.

Considering the nature of this site it should be no surprise to me or anyone else with half a brain around here that some members are strongly committed to believing almost anything as long it runs counter to mainstream thought. In fact, to many around here, things that oppose mainstream thought or acceptance are often accepted as fact by virtue of no other reason than it's simply contrary; and erego correct.

I think a lot of these type of people are teenagers that need to temper their wonder and cynicism and just--sometimes--growup and accept the facts for what they are, not what you want them to be.



posted on Sep, 2 2011 @ 10:35 AM
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Kind of weird it breaks up so soon after people start paying attention to it. but i highly doubt we have the tech to go there and blow it up. seems like wishfull thinking to me,but that's just my opinion.



posted on Sep, 2 2011 @ 11:06 AM
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Originally posted by Terrion
Kind of weird it breaks up so soon after people start paying attention to it. but i highly doubt we have the tech to go there and blow it up. seems like wishfull thinking to me,but that's just my opinion.

People started paying attention to it several months ago.

If it is breaking up, it is probably doing so because it is getting closer to the Sun, just like the many other comets that have broken up in the past.



posted on Sep, 3 2011 @ 10:01 AM
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I saw this on the Comet Elenin Facebook page: (Link)


According to the latest images coming in from Australia, comet Elenin may not be disintegrating and ultimately dieing. Take a look at these images by John Glossop as reported by Rob Kaufman. They show that it is reforming a condensation coma around a split nucleus.


Can someone either confirm or debunk this info and/or image? Thanks...





posted on Sep, 3 2011 @ 10:11 AM
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reply to post by DexterRiley
 


I have read a little about solar sails, quite possibly the only means we could have to actually alter the trajectory of a large body collision given a considerable amount of time from discovery to impact. Not sure if the math adds up to success though. Thanks for intriguing discussion.



posted on Sep, 3 2011 @ 10:17 AM
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reply to post by thinkingthing
 


Yes, as stated before, there is a lot of agreement that last week's CME blast may have temporarily stripped the coma and tail, and has been documented to have happened before.

But I have no hard data to share, just a consensus of opinions.



posted on Sep, 3 2011 @ 12:58 PM
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Originally posted by thinkingthing
Can someone either confirm or debunk this info and/or image? Thanks...


Look's like it's his.

Comet Elenin september 2, 2011

The image of Elenin in the link above clearly is the same image as you posted. You can tell by it's location and the surrounding stars. Look at the posters name. ~SheopleNation



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