That which is next to come. The next Hurricane is coming.

Current info on this storm

LOCATION...10.2N 28.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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Wow, some members are really on top of things. Not even a hurricane yet and there's a thread about it, fantastic! I look forward to checking up on this storm multiple times a day to see how it changes.

Originally posted by riddle6
reply to post by MrWendal

 

From what I understand, the preliminary reports say it won't enter the Gulf of Mexico. That is what I was basing my post off of. Of course the storm can always can its direction, and it will be several days before it is anywhere near the US, but that doesn't mean I can't hope and dream a little.

Feel free to dream as much as you like.

I personally do not put too much stock into the early Preliminary reports, cause just as you also said, it can always change directions. This storm is still in it's early stages. What it does and where it goes is anyone's guess and at this point it is pure speculation at best.

I know how you feel though, Texas is having a very severe drought. I live in SW Louisiana about 20 minutes from the Texas boarder. I can be in Beaumont Texas in 30 minutes and I can be in Houston in 2.5 hours. Things are pretty dry here also, though not as bad as most of Texas. As I said in one of the many "Irene is coming it's the end of the world" threads, there is no shortage of people in the Gulf right now who are hoping for a hurricane. Not only for the rainfall, but because Hurricanes in this area equals money.

Originally posted by Turq1
Wow, some members are really on top of things. Not even a hurricane yet and there's a thread about it, fantastic! I look forward to checking up on this storm multiple times a day to see how it changes.

Actually this thread is a bit of "catch up". Below is my post from THIS THREAD in which I tell people that this is a storm to watch if they really wanted to keep an eye on a storm.

Originally posted by MrWendal
Easy killers.. the thread title does say "possible"

Seriously, this storm the OP is linking was a tropical depression (technically) it is currently falling apart. 3 days ago it was much more formed up. I just did some more checking around and this depression has a 30% chance of reforming.

That being said, it is not expected to reform. The one to watch (if you really want to watch something) is what is right behind it. It is a large depression coming off the coast of Africa that also has a 30% to form... and it has a lot of ocean to do so.

Weather Underground Tracking

NOAA

Can you imagine if it takes the same/similar path as Irene??

That would be nuts.

I saw this on my local station tonight, lots going on in the house at the time so I was not able to make out the whole report, but it showed a couple of possibilities for the US and one went in the same direction as Irene and the other veered off towards the Gulf Coast.

It is just too early to know if it is going to become more than a Tropical Depression yet or not.

Remember all the talk about hurricane preps this year? It is no surprise that we are going to start getting hit fast and hard.

The water temperature in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean has cooled down since 1998, oceanographers report. Measurements since 1957 had shown a rise of more than ¼ of a degree up to that point, but between 1998 and 2006 the ocean stopped warming and cooled by 0.15°C in the same area.

The measurements of sea temperature were carried out along the parallel 24.5 degrees of latitude north of the equator running from the African coast to the Caribbean by Spanish government oceanographers. The oceanographers used a network of "Argo" instrument buoys and survey vessels. The scientists describe the cooling as "unusual".

source

what does that have to do with hurricanes you ask?

Scientists have looked at potential correlations between ocean temperatures and tropical cyclone trends worldwide over the past several decades. A 2005 study published in the journal Nature examined the duration and maximum wind speeds of each tropical cyclone that formed over the last 30 years and found that their destructive power has increased around 70 percent in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Another 2005 study, published in the journal Science, revealed that the percentage of hurricanes classified as Category 4 or 5 (based on satellite data) has increased over the same period. The findings from both studies correlate with the rise in sea surface temperatures in regions where tropical cyclones typically originate.

source

So since the ocean has actually cooled since these findings linking high water temperatures with hurricane strength does that mean mother nature is in fact less pissed?

Basic Hurricane Information:

Meteorologists use the term "tropical cyclone" for a closed atmospheric circulation that forms over a tropical or subtropical ocean. Once maximum sustained wind speed exceeds 74 miles per hour these storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, typhoons in the Pacific Ocean, and cyclones elsewhere.

Many factors influence tropical cyclone behavior, but three factors must be present for them to intensify: warm ocean temperatures (hurricanes can occur when surface ocean temperatures exceed about 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius)), low vertical wind shear (i.e., no strong change in wind speed or direction between two different altitudes), and high humidity. (3,4,5) As warm, moist air rises, it lowers air pressure at sea level and draws surrounding air inward and upward in a rotating pattern. As the water vapor-laden air spirals in and rises to higher altitudes, it cools and releases heat as it condenses to rain. This cycle of evaporation and condensation brings the ocean's heat energy into the vortex, powering the storm.

There are several natural factors that can "put the brakes on" a tropical cyclone: moving over colder ocean water; strong winds that churn up colder ocean water; high wind shear that can diminish or destroy the vortex; dry air migrating to the hurricane's core; and moving over land, which creates high frictional drag and deprives the storm of warm ocean "fuel." (3,4,5,6) But as long as conditions are favorable, the storm will thrive.

source

A question asked in the other (now closed) thread

Originally posted by lisaloeb1214
I remember that the media made many statements in the spring saying this year would be a bad hurricane season. It was the reason they were trying to get everyone to have emergeny kits and plans in place. Hopefully everyone has these plans in place and no one get hurts. Does anyone remember where these articles were and how many hurricanes they expected this year?

I posted a thread about this at the end of April found HERE

Good heads up by the OP - s&f for being on the ball

Originally posted by radosta
Take it from someone who lives in Hurricane Central: this time of year LOTS of big storms form off Africa. Every year. This is actually a pretty slow year for storms. Irene was a light drizzle.

I'm agreeing here. A very light year. There've been many years where they were stacked up six or seven deep heading off the coast of Africa or forming off the Gulf of Mexico. I think hurricanes are now just a bigger part of the collective consciousness, after Katrina and since the advent of faster and more immediate widespread communication. It's actually been very light, hurricane-wise SINCE Katrina. Those who live in typically hurricane-prone zones, it's been nothing. And even with Irene, it was not as if it was unheard of for one to go up the east coast. It's just relatively rare.

Looks like Katia's best chance of landfall will be Bermuda. Not gonna make the continent based on current projections

Katia is projected to be a Cat. 3 hurricane by Saturday.

Also, going by Katia's projected path, could this not keep building strength until it hits the Eastern coast, unobstructed, unlike Irene was?

Just look at it's course, if it continues on that turn then it could be making landfall at Rhode Island, again unobstructed apart from Bermuda.

Katia's Course


Regards, Skellon.

Originally posted by radosta
Take it from someone who lives in Hurricane Central: this time of year LOTS of big storms form off Africa. Every year. This is actually a pretty slow year for storms. Irene was a light drizzle.

Glad your house or neighborhood wasn't submereged in 7 feet of water. Plenty of people around me and upstate beg to differ with you.

Gotta love the people in the southeast. You guys swear you somehow own hurricanes or have this guru attitude toward storms. Look, Irene killed 40 people and caused billions in damage across 10 states or something. I watched people row boats down main roads. it wasn't Katrina, but to call it a drizzle shows your childish nature.

5:00 PM update

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 35.4W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Katia is expected to reach Cat 3 in about 80 hours or so. The 5pm report says

Katia should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of the subtropical ridge for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period...a weakness in the ridge produced by a trough over the western Atlantic is expected to induce a gradual turn to the right with a decrease in forward speed.

It will be interesting to see what happens in 5 days and if this turn will happen. It is my opinion, and my opinion only, that if this thing hits the warm waters in the Gulf, there is a strong possibility that it will see significant strengthening. However, this storm is still very far away from being a threat to the US at this point.

My interest for now has shifted to South of the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Cuba where a new low pressure system has just popped up. No listing for it on Weather Underground at this moment but I would not be shocked to see some mention of it on the 5am report. You can see it at the link below, and yes it currently shows only a 10% chance of forming into anything. However, it is close enough that I plan to keep an eye on it.

NOAA

That low pressure system I was watching in the gulf has been upgraded to a now 30-50% of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. It has now been named TD Eight - E

TD Eight - E

This is the same area where Hurricane Mitch formed back in 1998.

wow it looks like a tropical storm is already forming an eye. Looks to be well organized. But what do I know.

Have to wait for the next slide.

5:00 PM EDT update on Katia.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 42.6W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

Katia now a hurricane.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 44.4W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

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Regardless of where it hits and how strong, can we please keep all general discussion in one thread this time around? A separate one for a list of mandatory evacuations would be perfect, but we have 7-8 different threads talking about Irene, and I really didn't know which one to openly discuss it in.

Just a suggestion.

So far everything has been kept to this one thread, although I do think there is a 2011 Hurricane watch thread somewhere as well. I have just been posting here. Not only for Katia but the new storm in the Gulf that sure looks like it will develop into a Tropical Storm.

On topic... That depression I been watching in the Gulf has been upgraded again. It now shows as a 60% chance or greater to develop. It is something to keep an eye on if you are in the Gulf States.

NOAA