New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

reply to post by MamaJ


Well....I think it's on my end....I just did another restore.My computer would just freeze, then boom...no internet connection. Doing a scan as we speak. Seems ok now *fingers crossed* ....I'm hoping to get the rest of the info for the map and get it to Doodle before anything goes awry again ....just in case....

reply to post by Doodle19815


Sorry to be off topic, but I need to know if you got the u2u I sent you last night. I have been getting knocked offline all morning....I THINK it's fixed now though. I had a long list to send you in a u2u, and got knocked offline again....so let me know if you got it ok? Be looking for more soon....working on it now!

If you can find it, there's a great documentary on the Salton Sea.

www.youtube.com...

reply to post by StealthyKat


Sent you a u2u. Didn't get the list you sent though, just two other messages from you.

Okay, back on topic now. Did anyone ever find the actual date that we are preparing for yet? October 20th - November 5th?

The PSA is on the 20th if I am not mistaken. Will it be enough to warn people?

reply to post by Cherryontop
Kdog found this back on page 14 on the 12th

And then in a follow up he added this post:

Originally posted by kdog1982
Ok,I'm back and here is what I got.
They predicted the quake for Japan,but called it off in January 2011.

The premature termination of TIP in the 2011a Update of the Global Test of M8-MSc predictions happen to be due to the function Z1 (an inverse of the Zhurkov criterion, which is linear concentration of ruptures) anomaly threshold change from 2407 to 2440 bringing the voting scores from the required (and factual in the 2010b Update) 4:6/4:6 down to 4:6/4:5... A reasonable man would not even notice this change in one of the seven graphs involved in TIP diagnosis, while the prefixed in 1992 "black box" version of the M8 algorithm does.

www.mitp.ru...

Abbreviation: TIP, time of increased probability of a strong earthquake (an alarm).

Although the M8-MSc predictions are intermediate-term middle-range and by no means imply any "red alert", some colleagues have expressed a legitimate concern about maintaining necessary confidentiality. Therefore, the up-to-date predictions are not easily accessed, although available on the web-pages of restricted access provided to about 150 members of the Mailing List.

They may know something,but are not to alert the public.

And notice this link where access is restricted

www.mitp.ru...

edit on 12-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)

Now,I have downloaded this power point presentation on how all this works,trying to figure out how to upload it.
I got it from this link.
www.lmd.ens.fr...

the file is [email protected]. It goes into great detail and how the have had alot of success predicting earthquake.

edit on 12-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)

edit on 12-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)

edit on 12-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)

would be nice if we could access the restricted section, anyone have an invisibility cloak?

Dear T Middlebrook,

Could you please answer this following question? And could you be as specific as possible? I'm only do as you've asked, to remain skeptical.

Why did you start your writings on the Arkansas thread?

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Or better yet,there has to be some good hackers on here somewhere.

reply to post by Robin Marks


Does it REALLY matter why he first posted on the Arkansas thread?

I imagine this,
he joined,
being new he really did not know his way around.
He went to Recent posts and probably saw that thread on there and figured that it was posted to often and that's where he first posted.

There... I will bet TM will tell you the same thing.

reply to post by berkeleygal


Yes it matters. Motive is always a detective's strongest lead.

One problem about your theory. tmiddlebrook's first post came over 24 hours after the last post on Arkansas.

Had to edit and add. It would have been much more likely tmiddlebrook would have found QuakeWatch on the recent posts. There were seven posts on the day middlebrook first posted. Coincidentally, yours was the first of the seven on that day.

Sorry, I obsess over the little things. I love the tiny details. My favorite hobby is growing microbes in compost. I learned about tiny things from the writings of Sir (*questionable because he was most likely involved in one of the biggest hoaxes in history) Cohan Doyle.

I just wanted to pop this up here and document it. It is a follow up to Kdogs
Mitp link. It is an interview with the professor of the group. He mentions somethings that you all might find of a little interest.Last Exit interview.

Anyhow, heading out to Dallas in a couple of days and I am praying it stays quiet in that region while I am there. Ya'll don't have too much fun without me.

reply to post by Doodle19815


That was a great interview. It answered many questions we all keep asking, and consider. It touches on the M8 algorithym, on informing the California public to a near disaster and why not, and to the fact that yes, those morning breifings probably are happening as said and there is a leak at one of these geological/geosocial organizations. Thank you, TM. It touches on more, read it.

And thank you Doodle, great diggings. I don't have time, glad you do.

My kid just went off to college this last month, in L.A., I gave him earhtquake instructions for his old brick dorm he lives in, and told him not to park in the underground structure for a while, even though his car gets very dirty in the open. My husband had to go down to his school 2 nights ago, and asked him why he was not parking in the parking structure? My kid said, "it's a mom thing." Ah, no more questions.

reply to post by Doodle19815
Great find!

Cherryontop, here is one of the leading researchers in the world in the field of earthquake prediction:

You asked [earlier] about “the next big one” in California. By existing regulations the newly issued alarms should be distributed only among professional community, lest they trigger disruptive anxiety of population, profiteering and crime. Their further release is at the discretion of public safety authorities; leaks do occur. Our web sites open to public each alarm after it expires, whether it proved correct or false. This information is important as quality control both for predictions and disaster preparedness.

emphasis mine

They know, they've known for a while. They keep it from us because they think we can't handle the truth and lawlessness and chaos would ensue. There is an error factor as with any predictive technology which argues for caution when discussing the accuracy (I believe recent research in this thread shows a greater degree than is acknowledged by "authorities") but the plain and simple fact is that in general the public is not to be trusted with such awareness.

The members of this site are not your average citizen. We are more aware, prepared, open minded, curious, self-reliant, and mentally toughened just to name a few of the qualities I've seen around these boards. We don't listen to mass media but rather search wider and dig deeper into any topic that gets discussed. We bring different backgrounds and expertise to bear and an incredible synthesis takes place wherein any subject gets examined fom a multitude of angles. In short, we are not simple people with narrow views capable of only short sighted planning.

The last admin u2u I got indicated jut under 16000 members having logged on in the past month. That's a small-town, but it's spread world wide. To go a step further, there are perhaps a dozen regular contributors posting in this (HOAX) thread, and an unknown number of readers not posting for whatever their reasons are. Compare that to the millions that live in the target area (southern California) and you begin to realize the difference in scale.

reply to post by Doodle19815



Watching this video blew my mind. It shows several (3d) angles of the Christchurch seismic sequence with foreshocks of the main quake and then the after shocks and then the larger aftershock and it's aftershocks.

What I am reminded of is the scene in "The Abyss" where Lt Coffey is sinking after the submersible battle and the pressure dome begins cracking. Small cracks at first then the sudden implosion followed by smaller implosions as different components inside the submersible collapse under the tremendous pressure of the water.

The foreshocks are small cracks appearing before the larger mainshock. Since these foreshocks aren't releasing any appreciable amounts of strain in the region, the latent stress level of the rock is still high and as a result the seismic waves would have a different and quantifiable signature from other quakes of a simlar magnitude. These represet small pre-event failures that are similar to the way small breaks will occur in an object before catastrophic mechanical failure.

The mainshock occurs, a large rupture rips along a fault line creating a lot of new "surface area" along which aftershocks are the result of smaller breaks forming along the newly formed surfaces of the rupture point. This is clearly seen (at least I do, I hope I've been able to articulate my thoughts on this in a way that others can grasp my meaning) in the two large shocks and subsequent aftershock sequences.

Here is an excerpt from interview:


Prediction Algorithm Scores

- Algorithm “M8”. Since 1992 it has captured into the alarms 11 out of 15 earthquakes with magnitude 8 or more worldwide. Altogether the alarms cover one third of the time-space considered. Among missed is the recent Wenchuan earthquake in China. A typical alarm covers time interval years and area hundreds to thousand km in diameter.


- Algorithm Second Strong Earthquake (“SSE”) is applied after a strong earthquake occurs. It predicts whether a next strong earthquake will or will not occur nearby during the 18 subsequent months. 30 predictions have been made since 1989. 24 of them were correct; [the errors include 2 failures-to-predict and 4 false alarms).


- Algorithm “Reverse Tracing of Precursors” (“RTP”) gives shorter alarms, down to 9 months. It is tested since 2003 in California, Northern Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean, and Italy with adjacent areas. By now 5 out of 6 target earthquakes are captured by the alarms; and 9 alarms were false (two of them being near misses).


- Such predictions, their limited accuracy notwithstanding, do allow preventing a considerable (often – a major) part of damage by undertaking extra preparedness measures. Among such measures are out-of-turn repairs and safety inspections, simulation alarms, mobilization of post-disaster services, stoking up vital supplies, etc




The RTP may be what TM is going by for our L.A. area.

www.cnn.com...

reply to post by Robin Marks


Excellent link, Robin. Thank you for keeping up wih this!

He said parallels could be drawn between what happened in L'Aquila and elsewhere in the world, such as Japan. "We all have to work on new, and more clear, protocols, on the transfer of information," he said.

And let's not forget that this is actually about control of the information.

This is the crux of the issue, I believe:

After that meeting some members of the commission made reassuring statements to the press.

Would like to see which specific statements this refers to. The language utilized and any caveats that may have been used also could play a role in how what was said would be interpreted.

And this next statement seems to be very absolutist to me:

"Despite decades of scientific research in Italy and in the rest of the world, it is not yet possible to accurately and consistently predict the timing, location, and magnitude of earthquakes before they occur," the AGU statement said.

Could this be used as a basis to keep further advances from the public ken?

"It is thus incorrect to assume that the L'Aquila earthquake should have been predicted. The charges may also harm international efforts to understand natural disasters and mitigate associated risk, because risk of litigation will discourage scientists and officials from advising their government or even working in the field of seismology and seismic risk assessment."

Source for all above quotes.

Originally posted by Robin Marks
Dear T Middlebrook,

Could you please answer this following question? And could you be as specific as possible? I'm only do as you've asked, to remain skeptical.

Why did you start your writings on the Arkansas thread?

Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one.

If you use the search function and enter "earthquake" .......





So....a new poster who wants to write a warning about earthquakes may just select the top thread to put it in, no?

reply to post by westcoast


This is very simple and would be the way I would go about warning of an Earthquake....Good job once again WC!!!

reply to post by westcoast


Also the way I would have done it,
using the search function. I think
that answers the question!!

reply to post by westcoast


Good point. I've never used the search on here. And I was just assuming Quakewatch would be tops on the list. But it gets lost in the search because of there's no earthquake in the title.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Thanks again for that addition info. Doodle, thanks for the link, star for that find. I read the interview.
Thank you and the others who have contributed so much. I guess it's going to be a Darwinist scenario when the big one hits. The research done here has me 100% convinced we know a lot more than the general public will ever know, or maybe even wants to know.
Tmiddleborroks, thanks for the inspiration and the golden nuggets you have dropped.