New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

reply to post by kdog1982


I know...I do the same thing Pretty interesting though...

So,we have come along way.
We have sort of strayed from the original purpose of this thread.
TM stating that there was eminent danger in the So.Cal. region due to conflicting data of a "major" event.
So,keeping true with this thread,we most focus our attention and efforts to the Southern California region.
Anyone coming up with any patterns?
Any foreshocks?
Animals going crazy and running away?
Weird smells?

Keeping an eye on this site,getting alittle active.But from normal,I don't know.
www.data.scec.org...
Just throwing it out there ,peeps,til TM shows back up again.

reply to post by kdog1982


Am I right in saying this event should
now take place in about 35 days?
Would have to look back to find the
timeline TM gave us in last posting.
I have noticed there is a lot of activity
in California (small quakes) and then
today the 3.3 LA area. I feel I am in
a waiting period now until we hear
from TM. I am reading, referencing and
keeping alert.

I must say the 3.3 today has made me
a little uneasy. Just hope it is not a
foreshock.

reply to post by crazydaisy

Well,crazydaisy,like has been said before,stay alert,be prepared.That is all one can do living in that area.

As I think about this,it is growing legs,or becoming a spider web.
Take for instance this thread.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
Could it be connected?

Has anyone mentioned this site yet? I am tired and have been looking at maps all night. I wanted to take a brake so I started thinking about this site again. It has a lot of papers for download that are a little over my knowledge range but maybe ya'll can make heads or tails out of it.

CSEP

Originally posted by Doodle19815
Has anyone mentioned this site yet? I am tired and have been looking at maps all night. I wanted to take a brake so I started thinking about this site again. It has a lot of papers for download that are a little over my knowledge range but maybe ya'll can make heads or tails out of it.

CSEP

I looked at it,and to be honest,it looks like my wife's school board meetings.
Tried to get some info off there,but no luck on my end.
Maybe someone else can have better luck.

reply to post by kdog1982
\

Thanks for giving it a look. I read through some of their downloadable papers that seemed interesting. Could just be because I am tired though. I love this thread because I can speak out loud and not get ridiculed. Off to bed I go.

reply to post by Doodle19815

A little bit of poking and prodding produced some interesting results:

Initial development of the CSEP testing center is funded by the W. M. Keck Foundation.

Furthermore:

CSEP has several testing centers around the world and is expanding. Live testing centers include:

Southern California Testing Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
GNS, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
EU Testing Center at ETH Zurich

Southern California Testing Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) Project will be organized around three related questions:

How should scientific earthquake predictions be conducted and evaluated?
What is the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process?
Can knowledge of large-earthquake predictability be deployed as useful predictions; i.e., reliable advance warning of potentially destructive events?
In response to public expectations, scientists have long sought a heroic answer to Question (3): the discovery of a precursory phenomenon or pattern that can reliably signal when a fault is approaching a large earthquake. While it is premature to say such deterministic predictions are impossible, this “silver bullet approach” has not been successful so far. An alternative is a “brick-by-brick approach” to Question (2): building an understanding of earthquake predictability through interdisciplinary, physics-based investigations of active fault systems across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

However, the study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure—the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance (Question 1). To remedy this deficiency, SCEC is working with its international partners to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability.

The CSEP Project will have rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments, community-endorsed standards for assessing probabilistic predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products, and software support to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments and update their procedures as results become available.

For more detailed information, please read our Executive Summary.

I'm in my iPhone right now, so I can't upload the image on this page, but as you can see it shows some interesting results.

Also keep in mind that this is but one of a plethora of different models and forecasts all of which can be found on this page all you have to do is click on "SCEC Results" then choose your options.

The software they ran to produce these models can be found here.

Nice find all in all! Sorry if I missed this the first time it was mentioned.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Interesting and another place TM may work at in L.A.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Ok, I've subscribed to the Earth Observation Portal at the EUMETSAT website.

Now all I have to do is figure out exactly which data feeds I need and make sure those are the correct ones as the subscription cost I am seeing looks like around 100 euros. I'd hate to drop the funds only to find out that the coverage area does not show what we are looking at (SoCal) or that the bands (frequencies) are not the ones in which the data we are looking for reside.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

Looking a little deeper in to CSEP and
Southern California Testing Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA and more specifically in the Executive Summary, I find the following:

We will be writing a new proposal to NSF and the USGS to fund SCEC activities beyond 2/1/2002 during 2000.

So we are now 10 years later, what has become of that proposal?



They are at SCEC4 initial implementation now and are studying:

1. Stress transfer from plate motion to crustal faults: long-term fault slip rates
2. Stress-mediated fault interactions and earthquake clustering: evaluation of mechanisms
3. Evolution of fault resistance during seismic slip: scale-appropriate laws for rupture modeling
4. Structure and evolution of fault zones and systems: relation to earthquake physics
5. Causes and effects of transient deformations: slow slip events and tectonic tremor
6. Seismic wave generation and scattering: prediction of strong ground motions

Several of these are topics that we have discussed here; others I've seen discussed in the general Quake Watch thread.

I know this proposal was written some months ago but I have to wonder, are they looking in on our little chat?

More from the Section 1: State of the SCEC, 2011 (428KB .pdf):

Through its CEO Program, SCEC offers a wide range of student research experiences, web-based education tools, classroom curricula, museum displays, public information brochures, online newsletters, workshops, and technical publication

I wonder if there are any of these programs listed that we could take advantage of in our search for understanding.

The more I look in to the SCEC, the more convinced I am that tmiddlebrook is potentially (if legitimate) attached to the project in some fashion:

A major focus of the CEO program since 2008 has been organizing the Great California ShakeOut drills and coordinating closely with ShakeOuts in other states and countries. The purpose of the Shakeout is to motivate all Californians to practice how to protect ourselves during earthquakes (“Drop, Cover, and Hold On”), and to get prepared at work, school, and home. 7.9 million people participated in the 2010 ShakeOut, up from 6.9 million in 2009. More than 500 TV and radio news stories across the state and country aired in the days surrouding the drill, including a lengthy story on CBS Sunday Morning, and over 300 print stories appeared, including a front-page photo in the New York Times. Recruitment is well underway for the 2011 ShakeOut, with over 7.1 million participants registered as of August 31; the goal is to exceed 9 million. I would like to encourage California members of the SCEC community to register for the ShakeOut (at www.shakeout.org) and to encourage their institutions to join USC and others that are already registered

Ok, we now have some hard numbers to compare with. If as TM indicates:

The emphasis right now will take the form of a steady increase in PSA's in the region coupled with a lead up to what's called "The Great California Shake Out". You'll hear more, you'll see more, about this routine drill than you have ever before. Both USGS and Washington agree that this will be a "subtle yet aggressive" effort to prepare as many people without disclosing a full blown, "one of a kind", sanctioned warning.“

Then we should be able to confirm if there is a substantially larger effort to get this in the public awareness.

Back to research for a bit before I go to work this evening.

P.S. I've got more musings on the expanding earth and how they relate to geology in general and seismology in specific if anyone is interested in this line of discussion...

Ok, many of you share lots of scientific research, and quite honestly it's too complicated for me to put each theory together to point me in one cohesive direction, so I have given up a bit on reading some of the science, sorry.

But for those that just want simply stated facts and/or predictions from direct sources, here you go. I'm putting this in this thread, since it's not too far from Los Angeles, the prediction, and I like you guys here.

Here's a prediction for a large quake (7.6) in the next 5 days for the Salton Sea area (soutneast of Palm Springs, nearing border of Ca and Mexico )

twitter.com...#!/quakeprediction, th Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts

65 hour earthquake warning for Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea; www.quakeprediction.com...
2 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
75 hour earthquake warning for the Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea in the next 75 hours
12 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
76 hour earthquake warning for Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea; www.quakeprediction.com...
13 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
77 hour earthquake warning for the Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea in the next 77 hours
14 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
78 hour earthquake warning for Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea; www.quakeprediction.com...
15 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
79 hour earthquake warning for the Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea in the next 79 hours
16 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
80 hour earthquake warning for Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea. 7.6 earthquake likely to hit near the Salton Sea. www.quakeprediction.com...
17 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Los Angeles basin & Salton Sea; 7.6 earthquake likely September 25-29 near the Salton Sea; www.quakeprediction.com...
17 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
Extremely dangerous situation in Southern California near the Salton Sea. Please have extra food, gas, water, cash and flashlight on hand.
17 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
EARTHQUAKE WARNING for the Los Angeles basin area & Salton Sea; 7.6 earthquake likely September 25-29 near the Salton Sea.
19 hours ago »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
72 hour earthquake warning for Tokyo and Yokohama, Japan. 5.5 to 6.5 earthquake likely www.quakeprediction.com...
25 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Los Angeles basin area & Salton Sea; 7.6 earthquake likely September 25-29 near the Salton Sea.
25 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Los Angeles basin area & Salton Sea; 7.5 earthquake likely September 24-29 near the Salton Sea.
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Los Angeles basin area & Salton Sea; 7.5 earthquake likely in the next 5 days near the Salton Sea.
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Los Angeles basin area & Salton Sea; 7.5 earthquake likely in the next 5 days near Salton Sea; www.quakeprediction.com...
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
Even though this major earthquake will occur near the Salton Sea. LA should be prepared as well. (This quake could trigger the "big one")
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
7.5 earthquake likely Sep 24-30 in Niland, SE Salton Sea, Bombay Beach, Calipatria, Ocotillo Wells, Pine Valley* www.quakeprediction.com...
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
Earthquake risk near the Salton Sea has risen to 95 units !! (Max is 100) - please be prepared with extra food, gas, water and cash.
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
New earthquake forecast for the San Diego / Salton Sea area (updated every 3 days) is now online; www.quakeprediction.com...
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
NOTE; Here was the forecast for the San Diego / Salton Sea area on August 25, 2011; www.quakeprediction.com...
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
New earthquake forecast for the Los Angeles basin area (updated every 3 days) is now online; www.quakeprediction.com...
24 Sep »
Quakeprediction Earthquake Forecasts
@toddlangwell - Very subtle temperature variations which must take into account seasonal variability as well. Kinetic + seismic gap


Here is his website: quakeprediction.com

reply to post by jadedANDcynical
I really don't mean to be a thread hog, however, I keep finding these things and, since I have time and the ability, wish to share them.

From the Section 4: Research Accomplishments: (4.1MB PDF, a long read but well worth the time!)

Kagan (“Testing Global Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts”) produced an improved global earthquake forecast that is updated daily. This model is based on smoothed seismicity, and includes focal mechanism forecasts. Because of the daily update of the model, it successfully forecast a high earthquake probability at the location and time of the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, based on the occurrence of the M7.5 foreshock two days earlier (Figure 59). This model is less successful for great earthquakes that were not preceded by foreshocks, such as the 2004 M9.3 Sumatra earthquake.

emphasis mine

Well now, what do you make of that?

Earthquake forecasts, particularly frequently-updated time-dependent forecasts, could be improved through a better understanding of what triggers earthquakes. Bürgmann et al. (“Static vs. Dynamic Triggering of Earthquakes and Tremor at Parkfield”) found that repeating earthquakes at Parkfield tend to be preceded, at higher rates that expected, by up to several days by earthquake that transfer >1 kPa of static stress. Immediate triggering, within a few seconds to minutes, can happen when the separation distance is within a few km. Short-term triggering only occurs when the triggered repeating event is already late in its recurrence cycle, so the regularity of the repeating events is not substantially impacted

Again, much of this is what we've discussed within this thread so it would seem that we are on the right track.

Speaking of the right track, here's something that tells me I may be on it:

M8 Study

The SCEC M8 study comprises a set of scenario earthquake simulations of magnitude 8.0 southern San Andreas ruptures. The M8 scenario earthquake is an Mw 8.0 earthquake that ruptures the entire 545-km length of the southern San Andreas Fault, from Cholame in central California to the southern termination of the San Andreas Fault on the Salton Sea. The SCEC M8 earthquake scenario represents the outer scale required for standard California seismic hazard calculations because there are few, if any, larger ruptures in the existing USGS Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF 2.0)

Does "M8" ring a bell?

Running the M8 earthquake simulation involved a two-step process. First, we ran a dynamic rupture simulation, on NICS Kraken supercomputer, to create a physically realizable slip-time history on the fault. Second, we ran a ground motion simulation, on NCCS Jaguar supercomputer (the world’s fastest at the time), to model the anelastic seismic wave propagation from the fault rupture. The latter calculation represented the 3D seismic velocity structure by 436 billion mesh points and ran for 24 hours on Jaguar at full machine scale (more than 223,000 cores), making it the largest-ever earthquake simulation. The M8 simulation team, led by Y. Cui, was recognized as an ACM Gordon Bell Finalist in 2010

I think we have a ringer for "M8" that is not the algorithm.

The M8 simulation results have led to several significant scientific conclusions: (1) the likelihood that large ruptures on the San Andreas fault will transition from sub-shear speeds during rupture propagation; (2) the importance of directivity and basin effects in ground motion amplification at high frequencies; and (3) the need to model off-fault plastic yielding and non-linear site effects at frequencies above 1 Hz

We've got a few more numbers and scenarios to work with here.

These unexpectedly high peak ground motions, at frequencies above 1Hz, indicate a need to model the plastic yielding of near surface layers at higher frequencies. Until now, SCEC deterministic simulations at lower frequencies have not needed to model this additional non-linear behavior. Results from M8 show that SCEC simulations will need to model non-linear behavior as our deterministic simulations reach frequencies above 1Hz.

This sounds like they've discovered something that they had not considered before, which could be the "leaked" emails were referring to. This being the case, I can see how new methods and programs would still be "up in the air" with results thus giving the scientists shuddering bones.

This was a reply to JandC above post
, I think I erased that part.

M8 Study

The SCEC M8 study comprises a set of scenario earthquake simulations of magnitude 8.0 southern San Andreas ruptures. The M8 scenario earthquake is an Mw 8.0 earthquake that ruptures the entire 545-km length of the southern San Andreas Fault, from Cholame in central California to the southern termination of the San Andreas Fault on the Salton Sea. The SCEC M8 earthquake scenario represents the outer scale required for standard California seismic hazard calculations because there are few, if any, larger ruptures in the existing USGS Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF 2.0)

Does "M8" ring a bell?



The SA fault ending at the Salton Sea rings a bell. See my post above for a quake prediction there. The guy doing the predicting measures kinetic energy heat and I guess this area(Salton Sea) is extremely high right now. I tried to look up how that is done, but could not find anything.

reply to post by SunnyDee


Actually, The Salton Trough is mentioned throughout Section 4: Research Accomplishments: (4.1MB PDF)

I've got to go on a pizza run and then get ready for work (I close tonight and open tomorrow) so I won't be able to research much more today.

When I get the chance, and if no one else has found anything about

See my post above for a quake prediction there. The guy doing the predicting measures kinetic energy heat and I guess this area(Salton Sea) is extremely high right now. I tried to look up how that is done, but could not find anything.

I will see what I can find.

Keep it up, everyone!

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


www.quakeprediction.com...

Here is an image showing the reasons behind this current prediction.

I don't know, he doesn't give much information on how he comes up with these numbers. I'll take this prediction for the "prediction" that it is. Not too many pan out.

Following the csep scec trail lead me to this video. (Sorry I don't know how to embed).

Foreshock sequences

It is really neat to watch for someone who is just learning like myself.

This is the link that led to the video
Link for video info

Ok, this guy has now, in the last 2 hours, kicked the prediction up to a 7.7, that is getting close to the magic 8.

twitter.com...#!/Quakeprediction

reply to post by SunnyDee


Well, the latest real-time ionospheric infra-red map from JPL has a HUGE signature centered over the lower half of North America and South America:

Ionosphere map

Again, I don't know how (if) unusuall this is...but worth paying attention to.


Funny you should mention that area of prediction. I have been looking more closely at it myself just recently, based on the quakes and the odd readings at the GPS stations around it.

The fact that it is mentioned is close relation to the SA 'unzipping' in J&C linked articles (which are very impressive, BTW)...is a bit more concerning. I'll be focusing my attention more there.


ETA: Wow...when looking up some maps of the Salton sea, I came across this screen-shot of a swarm back in 2005. USGS screen-shot of swarm - 2005

Here's what I don't understand. And maybe middlebrook can answer this one.
Why did you choose the Arkansas thread in the first place.?

Apparently, the warning is for California and not Arkansas.
The warning has nothing to do with fracking.
Why not start your own thread?
Or write on another thread that subject was California quakes, or earthquake prediction.
I just don't get it.

In any mystery you intend to solve, you must first discover the motive.
I don't understand the motive.

Exactly.