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The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting on this day in the lower ionospheric there was also confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3‐11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground based ionosondes, which return to normal after the main earthquake. We found a positive correlation between the atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and the Tohoku earthquake. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere /ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake.
Global maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) are produced in real-time (RT) by mapping GPS observables collected from ground stations. These maps are produced to test real-time data acquisition, monitoring facilities, and mapping techniques. The RT TEC mapping can provide accurate ionospheric calibrations to navigation systems.
Looking to the sky in hopes of predicting an earthquake is not a new idea. The theory, which in science circles is called "Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism," goes like this: Right before an earthquake, the stressed fault releases more gases, especially the colorless, odorless radon gas. Once in the upper-atmosphere ionosphere, the radon gas strips air molecules of their electrons, splitting them into negatively charged particles (the free electrons) and positively charged particles. These charged particles, called ions, attract condensed water in a process that releases heat. [Infographic: Tallest Mountain to Deepest Ocean Trench] And scientists can detect this heat in the form of infrared radiation. IN PICTURES: Japan's 9.0 earthquake Using satellite data, Ouzounov and his colleagues looked at what the atmosphere was doing in the days before the Japanese quake. They found that the concentration of electrons in the ionosphere increased in the days before the earthquake, as did infrared radiation. March 8, three days before the quake, was the most anomalous day, Ouzounov told LiveScience. [Read: The Science Behind Japan's Deadly Earthquake] The researchers have crunched data for more than 100 quakes in Asia and Taiwan, Ouzounov said, and have found similar correlations for earthquakes with magnitudes bigger than 5.5 and depths less than 31 miles (50 kilometers). The team is now working to involve researchers in Japan and worldwide, as ambitious atmosphere monitoring will take international effort, Ouzounov said.
The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term earthquake precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that earthquake is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term earthquake precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space–Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of earthquake precursors united by physical basis in one common theory. Keywords: Radon; Tectonic fault; Thermal anomaly; Earthquake precursor
Originally posted by StealthyKat
There have been 3 quakes in Cali, one in Alaska and one in Pakistan in the past 30 minutes...just FYI
Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.
We study the Earth's electric field monitored at PYR (Greece) monitoring site, for a period of more than six years (May 23rd, 2003 to September 7th, 2009). It is compared, in particular its oscillating component of T = 365 days, with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, with the same component of the Earth's magnetic field, with the corresponding same period tidal oscillation and with the occurred large EQs of the same period of time. The obtained results suggest that the oscillating electric field component is generated by large scale piezoelectricity triggered by the Earth's shape - lithospheric oscillating deformation. The driving mechanism (yearly tidal variation) precedes the Aphelion - Perihelion dates for a month complying with the corresponding tidal friction behavior of the Earth's shape deformation. The Earth's oscillating electric field peaks coincide with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates while the triggered large EQs are clustered very close to the Perihelion - Aphelion dates. Moreover it is shown that the observed Earth's oscillating electric field is not related to or induced by the corresponding Earth's magnetic field. In conclusion, the Earth's oscillating electric field character could be used as medium to long term electric seismic precursor of large EQs.
this is an email exchange from my boss regarding some research from an organization that is connected to jpl in pasadena, ca. this place is a buzz right now with new info. i've had to protect identities so i x'd out names and emails, and i don't exactly know what the info is.
Subject: Re: M8
Just got here. Heading to (XXXX) office now. Current calcs in hand... hope it's not on the larger end.
Meet me in there.
On Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 5:07 PM, xxxxxxx wrote:
Absolutely. I'm concerned that we may be jumping the gun? do we NOT say anything and let it play out for another week or two?
We knew this was a possibility..
We're for sure, right?
On Aug 25, 2011, at 4:55 PM, xxxxxx wrote:
Ugh. None really. We have to think this thru and make sure to not send alarm bells.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
On Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 4:54 PM,xxxxxxxx wrote:
Is the plan to send an alert or something? What protocol do we have for this anyway?
Afraid so. Just spoke to (XXXX), we’re gathering shortly to discuss. On my way in now.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
On Thu, Aug 25, 2011 at 4:53 PM, xxxxxxxxxx wrote:
Did we really just get this report??