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Magnitude 4.1 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
* Thursday, September 15, 2011 at 11:02:09 UTC
* Thursday, September 15, 2011 at 04:02:09 AM at epicenter
Location 49.452°N, 127.154°W
Depth 22 km (13.7 miles) set by location program
Region VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
* 139 km (86 miles) S (170°) from Port Hardy, BC, Canada
* 151 km (94 miles) WSW (247°) from Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
* 221 km (138 miles) NW (304°) from Neah Bay, WA
* 292 km (181 miles) W (275°) from Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 10, Nph= 10, Dmin=89.7 km, Rmss=0.76 sec, Gp=180°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS
Event ID at00lrk9bl
The mechanisms that lead to foreshocks, main quakes, minor tremors, microquakes, and aftershocks are complex. I've described them as being the essence of Chaos Theory... like the weather. Predicting such things means predicting something that should, by definition, be unpredictable.
But, then, anyone who's seen the Beautiful Mind knows just how predictable seemingly random things can be. Pigeon movements... soccer players... they're all able to be described by mathematical algorithms, and, I suppose, it makes perfect sense to me that the same principles could be applied to earthquakes. But, such an application would require a vast amount of information gathering.
Even modern meteorologists with all of their equipment, their satellites, weather stations, balloons, ground observers, high-powered computers and world-wide sharing of data -- even they do not get the weather forecasts right all the time. They say this is because small changes in one place can create larger, unforseeable changes elsewhere. Well, that's fair enough, but (in my opinion) world-wide seismic activity functions very similarly to the weather. So why should we (not only here but in other places), who are working with nothing more than a little data and pooled knowledge and experience, somehow be expected to do better?
Well...if we can learn enough, if we can see beyond the statistics and the maps, the plates and the fault lines -- and really see the bigger picture, then maybe there will come a time when we will!
I can't help but repeat a comment I made a while back (either here or to Kat via email), that we perhaps should look at seismic activity in much the same way as we do the weather. Averages are useful as a rough guide, but there is a "chaos" factor -- the "butterfly in Beijing" concept -- which suggests to me that even a small change in one place can lead to massive changes elsewhere, but not necessarily through some logical event-'A'-leads-to-event-'B'-leads-to-'C' kind of process. In the same way that throwing one snowball at a steep, snow-covered mountainside might do no more than make a pretty little "crater" in the snow, but another snowball landing mere feet or even inches away from it could bring an avalanche of several million tons of snow down on the (foolish) thrower, we might have to go beyond the scientific and purely logical left-brain methods of prediction and look far more into the right-brain intuitive ones to find the answers that we seek. (...)
Makes me a bit edgy about what this day might bring
then there might be energies involved or related to seismic events pre-quake which -- while not being detected by publicly-known instrumentation
however the people who have focused on "M8" being a seismic measurement are correct. So Cal. The ground is already moving as well. Best wishes for all of us in So Cal. I wish I could part with more info
a major event is at the doorsteps of southern california, again, "imminent". I stress, timing is everything, and thus why there is no current public data
A model of stress transfer implies that earthquakes in 1933 and 1952 increased the Coulomb stress toward failure at the site of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. The 1971 earthquake in turn raised stress and produced aftershocks at the site of the 1987 Whittier Narrows and 1994 Northridge ruptures. The Northridge main shock raised stress in areas where its aftershocks and surface faulting occurred. Together, the earthquakes with moment magnitude M ≥ 6 near Los Angeles since 1933 have stressed parts of the Oak Ridge, Sierra Madre, Santa Monica Mountains, Elysian Park, and Newport-lnglewood faults by more than 1 bar. Although too small to cause earthquakes, these stress changes can trigger events if the crust is already near failure or advance future earthquake occurrence if it is not.
Arroyo de en Medio (Spanish for "in the middle creek") is a 2.5-mile-long (4.0 km) coastal stream in western San Mateo County, California. Arroyo de en Medio rises on the western slopes of Montara Mountain and discharges to the Pacific Ocean at Half Moon Bay at the location of the unincorporated community of Miramar at Miramar Beach. The watershed of Arroyo de en Medio consists of relatively permeable sandy soils capable of significant recharge to its aquifers, which supply considerable potable water to the local area. Arroyo is Spanish for creek; de en Medio means literally "of in between" but a closer more functional translation may be in the middle.