New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge...

reply to post by westcoast


Susan posted this in another thread:

This site is predicting a good sized quake in the next 72 hours.

Highest earthquake risk cities in California; 5.8+ likely - risk of 6.3+ earthquake: August 28-31.

www.quakeprediction.com...

The two stations I found with the greatest change over the past 30 days are these ones:

P642

and

P644


Even if you select the cleaned/filtered option, there is an obvious change in the very recent days.

????

Originally posted by westcoast
reply to post by westcoast

 

Well....I couldn't stay away from this for long.

As always, I have come back around to the West Coast.

I just made a huge update post on my Putting It All Together thread.... , (go up a few posts from the bottom. It is headlined 'BIG UPDATE')

You may want to start with the OP if you haven't seen the thread before...it's a big one. But possibly relevant.

*sigh*....may be beating a dead, pretend horse here. It is just possible too that this dead horse lead me to the trough.

Okay. I have been thinking more about it. The statement about the 'bigger end' got me. Because, as I have already said several times, one of the very few ways to predict anything with quake related events (possibly) is through ground deformation. GPS was the best -known way for this, others have been introduced on this thread.

I keep coming back to the Long Valley Caldera, becuase of my other thread. After not thinking about this 'hoax' for a day, I read that original email again. It regards a company that submits stuff to JPL in Pasadena....so while JPL is a government agency, they could have private companies sub-contracted to them. Way I see it, the only people JPL is going to be reporting too are Government ones...especially when it comes to issuing alerts, so the obvious one there is the USGS.

This lead me to some searching for real-time GPS studies of the Long Valley Caldera. Guess what?

The private company that does the GPS monitoring for the Long Valley Caldera for the USGS.

I found this website for the USGS that seems to have all the realtime info at your fingertips: Continuous GPS monitoring at Long Valley Caldera

I hit the jackpot with this map of live stations


I need help interpreting this stuff. It is not my thing. BUT...by browsing through a few of the real-time stations, it appears to me that there has been a marked uplift in the north end very recently, as indicated by the blue dots on the top graph HERE


So there we are. Is the warning real? Are they talking about an excelleration of deformation in the Long Vallery Caldera? We know it is monitored and is something that most definately could cause a real warning to be issued. We also can't ignore the swarm going on there right now, and the neighboring swarm on the san andreas directly West of it.

What do you all think? someone want to help interpret this stuff, just in case??

edit on 28-8-2011 by westcoast because: (no reason given)

I'm just quoting this to keep it on the same, current page. I want some other people to take a look at it.

Originally posted by westcoast
reply to post by westcoast

 

snip


I need help interpreting this stuff. It is not my thing. BUT...by browsing through a few of the real-time stations, it appears to me that there has been a marked uplift in the north end very recently, as indicated by the blue dots on the top graph HERE

snip

edit on 28-8-2011 by westcoast because: (no reason given)

Taking a look at just the station you linked in this portion of your post, I will say that it appears that the station (and the ground beneath it obviously) has been moving steadily northwest (the plot for 'north' steadily ascends, while the plot for 'east' steadily descends) for the time frame plotted and the ground has been "breathing", up and down as much as 40 mm total (20 up, 20 down, from mean) in the course of a year.

Whether that amount of motion is significant, I am unsure, but that is my analysis of that particular link.

Hey, where is everyone? I'm jumping out of my skin here! Tmiddlebrook is back on the Arkansas thread with a new post. Pertains to California!

Thanks, I went there and read the
post, he did say M8 is pertaining
to earthquake and mentioned the
swarm. Should we be concerned
now, actually I already was before
hearing from the informer. I don't
like the look of the swarm in Cali.
I just have a feeling, I think something
is brewing. I hope not!!

Okay, here is the post by the 'new' tmiddlebrooks:

Originally posted by tmiddlebrook36
I'm so very sorry I have to be so evasive and "non-informational". I'm trying to warn people without getting into trouble in the process. Know that I'm watching this thread and trying my best not to mislead anyone, however the people who have focused on "M8" being a seismic measurement are correct. So Cal. The ground is already moving as well. Best wishes for all of us in So Cal. I wish I could part with more info, but I'm sorry, I can't. Be prepared and stay alert. The swarm has already begun. We all knew this would happen....

Please know that I'm having to change my account frequently.

Are we to believe them? I haven't quite decided, but I am obviously still intrigued, otherwise I wouldn't be writing this.

As I already posted earlier on my other thread, there is another little swarm of quakes going on further south from the one on the San Andreas, very near some 'smoking rocks' on the beach. Sound wierd? It is.

MAP 1.6 2011/09/02 00:50:35 34.350 -118.465 6.0 6 km ( 4 mi) ESE of Newhall, CA
MAP 1.9 2011/09/02 00:09:04 34.337 -118.457 3.5 6 km ( 4 mi) NNW of San Fernando, CA
MAP 2.1 2011/09/01 23:15:33 34.344 -118.470 5.3 6 km ( 4 mi) SE of Newhall, CA
MAP 1.4 2011/09/01 21:50:12 34.349 -118.460 5.1 7 km ( 4 mi) ESE of Newhall, CA
MAP 1.5 2011/09/01 21:43:26 34.340 -118.490 7.3 5 km ( 3 mi) SE of Newhall, CA
MAP 2.2 2011/09/01 21:40:48 34.342 -118.476 5.2 6 km ( 4 mi) SE of Newhall, CA
MAP 2.9 2011/09/01 21:35:34 34.353 -118.448 3.0 7 km ( 5 mi) N of San Fernando, CA
MAP 2.6 2011/09/01 20:53:44 34.341 -118.471 4.9 7 km ( 4 mi) SE of Newhall, CA
MAP 1.5 2011/09/01 20:52:38 34.338 -118.480 11.0 6 km ( 4 mi) SE of Newhall, CA
MAP 1.4 2011/09/01 20:50:29 34.356 -118.467 8.7 6 km ( 4 mi) ESE of Newhall, CA
MAP 4.2 2011/09/01 20:47:07 34.339 -118.475 7.3 6 km ( 4 mi) SE of Newhall, CA

source




SO.....I'd suggest we just continue watching Mid to Southern California. I'm going to browse some of the stations of the Caldera again.

What I would really like is for whoever this person is (who now seems to have made up several different accounts....and is sure to be banned once again) to just come out and say whatever it is. If they are so sure of the danger this (whatever this is) poses....than why come onto ATS with little tid bits of info instead of something solid, if for any other reason than to just string us along?

I would HOPE...that whoever YOU are, if you really believe getting this information out would save lives....that you are doing something more than what we have seen.

reply to post by westcoast


The swarm near the steam
and/or smoke coming from
the rocks is interesting. Thanks
for the vid.

Even tho we don't know if this
person is legit or not and why
they are not giving more info
we now know it pertains to
earthquakes and California
and oh yea - one week. I
don't know what to think either
but I am focused.

I have to admit that my curiosity is piqued.

A good troll will do that, but then again so will a legitimate source.

Too many questions, too much vagueness with the merest whiff of the possibility of legitimacy.

Regardless of this person's "warnings" being real, I have found some more information about the uses of the M8 algorithm which I have posted here and hopefully others will have more to add soon too.

And I have uncovered another algorithm, "CN," which seems to be used in tandem with M8. Someone else may have posted about that one too, not sure, speak up if you have.

I may be completely misreading what I've found, but it seems like there is a fairly high degree of accuracy in this area of forecasting (the term I've seen used somewhere to replace "predicting") earthquakes, much more so than we may think.

IF

, and that's a big "if" this person is legit (I'm thinking troll at this point) then I don't know what I will think.

More to follow that post too!

Just coming in here to share updates.

Member tmiddlebrook36 has posted 2 new updates over the past few days, over here in the ATS Thread - Earthquake Swarm In Arkansas....

Here is his/her post from September 4th:

In today's local news:

"In recent years, a camp has emerged that’s more hopeful. It’s pushed by researchers using satellites who say it may be possible to someday predict quakes from space and others who think they can tease out signals in rocks.
The two groups recently met in Los Angeles to start a dialogue. Scientists have been trying to solve the riddle for decades."

I implore you to not be casual in your approach to safety at this time. Please remain prepared.

I will share more info shortly and I will NOT take any credit when the event happens. I'm only trying to pass along information that I am hearing and reading at my office.

Stay alert.

Link to September 4th, 2011 post

Next... He/she has come in today (September 6th) and made the following post:

If you think outside of the box, you may be able to read between the lines here. I'm posting as much as I can, and more info coming in constantly. I can't really post what I "hear" as it's all hearsay and that's not right.

Minutes from a closed door that was forwarded to me, based on recent information connected to earlier posts

"A 7.0 quake in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area would potentially kill millions and cause upwards of $1 trillion in damages,"

I shouldn't be saying this but there has been new studies that are not yet published. The risk is "imminent".

I'm sorry I can't print more.

Stay alert.

Link to September 6th, 2011 post...

Like I said, just keeping this thread current.

Anyone have any thoughts???

Why was this thread marked Hoax?

Has something been proven fake?

Does anyone remember reading that the big quake that is supposed to rock Cali would be centered in Valencia, Ca?

I know we had a small swarm of quakes there recently, and I downplayed it since I felt it, and it seemed like nothing unusual, but it is coming back to me that Valencia (the Newhall swarm is basically the same area-miles apart) was some scientificly predicted area that would crack Califorinia. OR I was dreaming this(don't want
to panic anybody here).

reply to post by UtahRosebud


Thank you for the updates!! I haven't been around much all weekend, so I have some catching up to do.

I continue to be fascinated by these posts...but again question the vagueness. I guess I could understand this if they are hearing things second-hand and are unable to back anything up yet, since there isn't anything published. it seems to me that this is (supposedly) someone who works in an office that deals with scientific data related to quakes, but isn't the one who actually receives it. Secretary?

I guess it doesn't really matter....there is enough activity around LA right now (ties into my theory too...so I am a bit jaded there ) to raise questions and lend a little bit of weight to what they are hedging at.

Obviously this mystery poster is privy to info from recent studies that say a large quake is going to hit the LA area....in the 7.0 range which will cause massive damage, casualties and loss of life.

The thing is...we need more than whispered hearsay. Anything else to help pinpoint things and find something more conclusive. I supose all we can do is continue to watch the area and be very sensitive to anything suspicous.

As to why this thread was moved to the hoax bin: Best guess is it seems this poster has had multiple accounts and has perhaps been found dishonest in the past. I don't believe it had anything to do with the claims.

reply to post by SunnyDee


Valencia? Really? I almost moved there a few years back. Nice place! Still have an ex who lives there. First I had ever heard of that particular area in this regard. Do you have a source of where you read/heard this?...I'd be curious.

reply to post by westcoast


Hey Westcoast! You've been missed. I hope all is well. If i remember correctly you had to go help your mom who needed you (sorry if I am wrong, I remember that being you that said that in a thread - I think :@@.

Anyway, the poster regarding this thread showed up again a few days ago in the original discussion in Fragil Earth. Not sure if you saw that yet or not, just thought I'd mention it.

Welcome back

reply to post by summer5

I tried finding the Valencia quake prediction I pretty clearly remember, but to no avail.

I remember thinking when I read it, that it seemed like such an unlikely location compared to other more active areas along say the San Andreas. And it is not along the San Andreas either. I'll take another look for this info.

Good Morning all! I see our informer
has now mentioned Los Angeles, he/she's
earlier post indicating something to happen
within 2 weeks from the first time they
posted (hope I am correct on this). Have
to look back at threads to see what the
time line is now. Stay informed and safe
everyone.

reply to post by crazydaisy


First post by "tmiddlebrook35" from the "Earthquake Swarm in Arkansas...big one" thread appears to have been on 8.26.11.

Not quite two weeks yet

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by summer5


Hi there! My most recent time away was due to Friday night football, birthday party (all day event for teen son), church, BBQ, youth group gathering, trip to seattle to feed homeless and JV football game. PHEW!!! All extremely good, fun stuff but tiring.

UtahRosebud updated us on the most recent posts (Up a bit on this page)....and so we continue to "wait and see" what, if anything comes of this.

In the original post it was hinted at in the email exchange that there was debate over raising the 'alarm'. NOW. I see this to mean that either the organization our mystery poster works for is responsible for giving the information to the agency that would raise the alarm, or IS the agency to do it. SO, I still think this is supposedly someone working in the office of the monitoring co. (JPL), USGS, FEMA or a local government agency in the LA area. (if we are to believe them)

obviously, a public alarm has not been issued. This either means that the threat is not real, not enough to cause mass panic, or it has been determined to cut losses afterwards rather than to deal with outfall of mass exodus and a failing stock market.

So far today, not a whole lot going on in the area of the swarm North of LA...which I think is the most obvious place to watch. I'll do some searching for any updates on the smoking hills and check those GPS meters I linked earlier.



ETA:
So there is a GPS monitoring station sitting almost on top of where the current swarm north of LA is. Check it out HERE - station BRPK

NOW...I may not know how to really read these, but in looking through a couple of dozen of these is various locations...this one by far shows the most movement in the past year. The average seems to be around 6.00 to 8.00 (velocity mm/yr) this station is 21.2 (positive) Northward motion, -19.10 Eastward. Can't say I see anything really dramatic on the past 30 days...but I think that it seems to have the most motion is something of interest.

Yet again, tmiddlebrook has posted. This time there are some specific data though that can be followed up on. Here is the post referenced:

Originally posted by tmiddlebrook36
Rest assured the information being shared is NOT connected to solar flares in any way. I am departing with additional information to steer the conversation back into the right direction. Please understand and respect I'm way outside of my boundaries here...

There have been new studies that relate directly to "creep" and GESS. The findings are linked to recent major events (over long distances) and current conditions. The study discovered what may be termed as a possible "holy grail" of cause. By teaming what is called "prolonged triggered creep episodes and their effect on major slips" and recent GESS results, the research is phenomenally convincing; a major event is at the doorsteps of southern california, again, "imminent". I stress, timing is everything, and thus why there is no current public data. New information if pouring in daily, however we're moving in the wrong direction.

To address a question posed early about loss of life and valuation of damage, the thought of how large and how swift this even may be has caused some analysts to leap for worst case scenarios.

More later.

Stay alert, be prepared.

CLPrime has a follow up post which goes over some of what tmiddlebrook has posted. I don't have access to my cputer at the moment so my ability to research is hampered for the present. Will be on later to look further into this but j did want to make sure this got posted here to keep everything in one place.

reply to post by westcoast

I just had a FB friend mention that all of the power is out in San Diego Country? Is this even in the vicinity of what you guys are talking about.