Will Hurricane Irene be a "black swan" for the U.S. economy?

Originally posted by SirMike

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldnt it create lots of jobs rebuilding?

No, see The broken window fallacy

Given the unemployment figures any jobs at this point are better than none regardless of long term standing.
2nd


brill

Originally posted by gandamack2
actually New York City NEEDS a hurricane...clean out the garbage and the trash...boost it all across the board..I made it thru Katrina quite easily..os can N'Yawk

this isn't 1977, NYC is very clean and safe

Um... I think it's going to delete New York city by Monday. I think this is the thing in Revelations- "the great city in ruins"

I want to reply to two people at once but nevermind.

However, I sure as heck didn't make it through Katrina ok. My house got destroyed and many of my possessions were found by my grandparents (seriously) over a mile away off the side of the road.

But! It did spike the economy down there... for a little bit. BTW, at the time (I had good enough sense to get at least a little far away) I was living in Biloxi, Mississippi.

No offense though.

I never knew we got out of the recession.. lol.
I think it is possible that this could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

reply to post by brill


Most of the cleanup is done on a cash basis, so it wouldn't help the unemployment rates (the ones that the general public sees/pays for anyway). Even if it did, we are still gonna end up spending any money that was saved on disaster relief, but it will create alot of temp jobs for construction workers that need the cash...

Catch 22 I guess

Originally posted by endgame211
I want to reply to two people at once but nevermind.

However, I sure as heck didn't make it through Katrina ok. My house got destroyed and many of my possessions were found by my grandparents (seriously) over a mile away off the side of the road.

But! It did spike the economy down there... for a little bit. BTW, at the time (I had good enough sense to get at least a little far away) I was living in Biloxi, Mississippi.

No offense though.

First of all, I am very sorry for your misfortune with Katrina, I too lost everything I owned with Rita, so believe me when I say that I know where you are coming from. I hope you understand that I was not in any way implying that hurricanes are a good thing in my first post, I was just trying to show the silver lining, even though it is very thin.

reply to post by TheThirdAdam


It's cool. There is a silver lining.

I also had to deal with Rita, though probably not to the extent you did. Either way, take care of yourself and we'll talk again sometime. I sympathize.

Wouldn't that be something and almost perfect..."washing out" everything that has gotten us to this point in time, literally.

reply to post by yourmamaknows


I live in CT. The entire state is supposed to be hit head-on by Irene. There is a nuke plant in the New London area, which is in the southeast corner (on the coast, no less).

Our governor has already declared a State of Emergency. They are taking this very seriously.

Thank goodness I don't have to do much to prepare. Topped off the gas tank today. Went shopping last night for some incidentals (the bread aisle was practically emptied out!). Will clear the deck furniture tomorrow and try to get the tomato plants (they're in containers) under the deck. Darn, and they're finally starting to ripen.

My mom's been calling 6 times a day all week. "Do you have water stored?" YUP. "Do you have batteries?" YUP "Do you have food you don't need to heat?" YUP. "Do you have extra charcoal and fluid?" YUP....you get the drift LOL. It feels GREAT to be prepared!!!!! I highly recommend it to everyone.

I'm not a meteorologists...and dont know mucha about hurricanes...but, shouldn't this hurricane have died down a bit, by now? If so...why is it growing? And, do people think this thing is just gonna 'magically' stop? Somebody should have told Irene she's supposed to go, right. Hurricanes don't like land! Oh, and by the looks of her, she is GYNORMOUS. After listening to the people on the I.S.S., it sounds like Irene is 'bout to WREAK HAVOC. They said, it's gonna hit hard, and LAST A WHILE! YIKES!!!! They were sending out prayers!

Originally posted by yampa
I don't think Nassim Taleb is much of a theorist. I haven't read any of his books, but I watched a talk by him once. Seemed like nonsense to me. 'Random things happen and sometimes they have big consequences' - is that a theory? How does the swan come into this, why is it black?

He's an epistemocrat.

The Black Swan Theory or Theory of Black Swan Events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight

The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After a Dutch expedition led by explorer Willem de Vlamingh on the Swan River in 1697, discovered black swans in Western Australia,[5] the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification

en.m.wikipedia.org...

Originally posted by nuttin4U
I'm not a meteorologists...and dont know mucha about hurricanes...but, shouldn't this hurricane have died down a bit, by now? If so...why is it growing? And, do people think this thing is just gonna 'magically' stop? Somebody should have told Irene she's supposed to go, right. Hurricanes don't like land! Oh, and by the looks of her, she is GYNORMOUS. After listening to the people on the I.S.S., it sounds like Irene is 'bout to WREAK HAVOC. They said, it's gonna hit hard, and LAST A WHILE! YIKES!!!! They were sending out prayers!

From what I understand, the Atlantic waters are pretty warm right now, which gives power to Irene's punch. I'm not sure how that works, but it's what our weather people keep talking about. They're even saying that if it veers a little east after landfall in NC, it could actually strengthen as it heads up the coast.

From my experience (Katrina, Rita, Ike) the best stratagy is to:

A- Evacuate inland at least 150 miles. These things usually end up knocking out power service that far inland, sometimes further.

B- Try to either be the first or the last (within reason) to evacuate. I have used this everytime and have never had to sit in traffic for hours on end wasting precious fuel.

C- Re-fuel, Re-fuel, RE-FUEL!!! I can't stress this enough. Try to stop for fuel as often as possible because IT WILL BE SCARCE as the situation unfolds... And AAA doesn't service disaster areas.

D- Don't come back until the power has been restored. There is nothing that can be saved from your home by getting there three days early. Just sit tight and enjoy the AC, running water, and not eating MRE's.

Good luck to ya!

Originally posted by SirMike


A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.

Too much of a coincidence for my liking FEMA have been preparing for 'something' over the last 8 months and now in the turmoil of the bleak US economical outlook a potential disaster takes place that detracts attention. Call me a cynic but you have to admit, what a coincidence.

Originally posted by Sir Mike

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldn't it create lots of jobs rebuilding?

No, see The broken window fallacy

if you google (quebec ice storm 1998)

a massive ice storm brought the economy to a standstill in quebec.

factories shut down for weeks, no electricity for business, etc.

but after they recovered, people spent so much money on improving their homes to make sure they never had to go to another shelter, that government tax collections were actually up.

lots of people are sitting on their money.

if scared and inconvenienced, they will spend.

The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After a Dutch expedition led by explorer Willem de Vlamingh on the Swan River in 1697, discovered black swans in Western Australia,[5] the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification

en.m.wikipedia.org...

Yah, as I said. Not much of a theory. It is mostly economics pop science. He also seemed to have named one of his trading strategies 'The Black Swan'. So not only do these swans help him profit on the stock market, they explain the complexities of all general unexpected events. I worry about his fixation on swans.

Intercessory prayers for those in the path of that hurricane - I really hope it goes nowhere near that nuclear plant.

reply to post by endgame211


I was at Stennis Center...we got the eye

reply to post by SirMike


I would think that a disaster would stimulate the economy in terms of jobs. People do rebuild after every major event. Since these types of disasters do happen from time to time, buying up destroyed real estate and rebuilding it for the future seems like a good investment, especially on the East Coast.

Im wondering if the east coast liberals,who dont want guns in peoples hands,will make out ok when the thugs take over the streets after services fail...gonna be a wake up for a lot of peopple who should have been doing some prepping