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Originally posted by SirMike
Originally posted by Agit8dChop
If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldnt it create lots of jobs rebuilding?
No, see The broken window fallacy
Originally posted by gandamack2
actually New York City NEEDS a hurricane...clean out the garbage and the trash...boost it all across the board..I made it thru Katrina quite easily..os can N'Yawk
Originally posted by endgame211
I want to reply to two people at once but nevermind.
However, I sure as heck didn't make it through Katrina ok. My house got destroyed and many of my possessions were found by my grandparents (seriously) over a mile away off the side of the road.
But! It did spike the economy down there... for a little bit. BTW, at the time (I had good enough sense to get at least a little far away) I was living in Biloxi, Mississippi.
No offense though.
Originally posted by yampa
I don't think Nassim Taleb is much of a theorist. I haven't read any of his books, but I watched a talk by him once. Seemed like nonsense to me. 'Random things happen and sometimes they have big consequences' - is that a theory? How does the swan come into this, why is it black?
The Black Swan Theory or Theory of Black Swan Events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight
The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After a Dutch expedition led by explorer Willem de Vlamingh on the Swan River in 1697, discovered black swans in Western Australia,[5] the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification
Originally posted by nuttin4U
I'm not a meteorologists...and dont know mucha about hurricanes...but, shouldn't this hurricane have died down a bit, by now? If so...why is it growing? And, do people think this thing is just gonna 'magically' stop? Somebody should have told Irene she's supposed to go, right. Hurricanes don't like land! Oh, and by the looks of her, she is GYNORMOUS. After listening to the people on the I.S.S., it sounds like Irene is 'bout to WREAK HAVOC. They said, it's gonna hit hard, and LAST A WHILE! YIKES!!!! They were sending out prayers!
Originally posted by SirMike
A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.
Originally posted by Sir Mike
Originally posted by Agit8dChop
If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldn't it create lots of jobs rebuilding?
No, see The broken window fallacy
The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. After a Dutch expedition led by explorer Willem de Vlamingh on the Swan River in 1697, discovered black swans in Western Australia,[5] the term metamorphosed to connote that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification
en.m.wikipedia.org...