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Originally posted by hab22
good news. irene is turning east. latest tracking at 11 pm on weather.com has it moving from 77.4 w to 77.3 w. That's a good sign this monster could be curving to the east. let's hope the trend continues
Originally posted by The Undertaker
reply to post by VariableConstant
Did I hear right, that Mr. Mayor isn't going to make an evacuation notice/order until Saturday AM? Little late imo. Can you imagine the chaos?
Originally posted by Lemon.Fresh
*Current forecasts have the storm tracking up the coast, clipping the coast of NC, and heading straight for NYC
*The NE seaboard has loads of moisture in the air right now.
*The ocean temps are just under the temp needed to build strength on the NE seaboard.. They are perfect for sustaining strength, though. (~80°+ to build strength. ~70°-80° to sustain). Right now, as a Cat. 3, it is off the coast of FL. The water temps are ~85°. They drop to ~80° around the Chesapeake Bay area, and are ~75° all the way up to Boston.
Moisture + ~80° water temp = strength building hurricane.
Originally posted by topdog30
I would hope people would have enough common sense to make a decision and leave on their own. I don’t understand why people would have to wait to be told to evacuate.
Originally posted by Kicking2bears
On the other hand last year, this year and next should have extreme and unusual weather patterns. That makes everything more and more unpredictable.
Originally posted by jhn7537
Isn't the storm going to weaken as it moves north along the coast? If the storm is a Cat 3 now and it continues to drop in wind speed and power as it moves north, shouldnt it be just a tropical storm at worst once it reaches NJ/NY? I feel like the news is blowing this out of proportion, but who knows.... I dont think we are going to see anoSorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.
This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting. ther Andrew or Katrina....edit on 25-8-2011 by jhn7537 because: (no reason given)
Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.
This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.
If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.
Originally posted by starviego
Now you just have to wonder--how exactly do they know where this storm is going? They don't. It could go east, west or even south. My bet is it will head out to sea and peter out. Calm down, everybody.