If Obama wins re-election, it will be because of...

I know that a lot of folks on here think Obama is gonna lose, and I'll admit, his chances aren't "great"...

But...

He's more likely to win than lose.

This is for a lot of reasons:

- incumbents tend to win
- he has the largest media reach of any candidate
- donors (read: investors) like stability
- most still blame Bush for Obama's failures
- etc.

But, the main, the most important reason he could win is because the GOP candidates are all extremely flawed.

Let's look at the front runners.

Bachmann - She polls well with the "base," but is seen as, essentially, the Nancy Pelosi of the "right". In other words, she'll never gain a critical mass with Independents or non-read meat Republicans. Plus as a woman, she'll (probably) be competing with a more well known female candidate, Sarah Palin. And men, lots of men, will never vote for a woman. Sad but true.

Romney - He's a Mormon. He's a really rich write guy "from" New England, he's about as exciting as Michael Dukakis, in a coma. Plus he can barely be bothered to run for President. He just doesn't care enough. People sense this. The main reason why he leads so many polls is that he's seen as "electable," but he's not really, not on a national level.

Perry - As soon as people learn more about him, he's toast. American is pretty damn Christrian, but it's NOT Dominionist. Once the reality of what that means dawns on the country, all the smarm in the world won't save him. Plus, he's not actually that great at dealing with unscripted stuff. Worse than Obama even. He's a bubble-boy, as soon as that pops, well, the GOP won't solidify around him because he's not Pres material... maybe a VP candidate, prolly not.

Paul - As I've discussed on another thread, he just not the right combo of beliefs and salesman and public figure to win, and the party knows this. Plus his policies are pretty unpopular in his own party.

Palin - Palin doesn't poll well any more and is seen as a celebrity. Her weakness are still there and she'd be crushed in a general election, again.


Who COULD win?

Well...

The smart money in the GOP is lining up behind Romney, hoping that Mormonism will seem less important than good looks, charm and his "record"... which they think will play to indies... and it COULD. But getting America to accept a Mormon President is gonna be very close to impossible.

The dark horse, is Perry, who COULD find a way, with a great VP and a re-branding of his faith, to seem more mainstream. There's a chunk of folks that would love to make America a more "Christian Nation" and there's tons that would love to continue down Regean's deregulation path... Perry is their man... The party is basically locked in an internal debate about which one could ACTUALLY beat Obama.

But... from the outside looking in, there's no CLEAR front runner and it'll prolly come down to a few mistakes by one candidate and a few deals done by a few others...

So, if Obama wins, it won't be because he's hugely popular, it'll be because the GOP is in disarray and can't decide if it's a fiscal party or an ideological party...

reply to post by captainnotsoobvious


You will have no election. FF before it happens I have said it before and going to keep saying it. Why do you think he has phoned it in for the past 3 years. I think its cute everything thinks the election and what they watch on TV is real.

I tend to agree. I am not a republican, but oddly am friends with many...who knew?. In essence the problem will be voter turn out.

I am from the deep south and have heard many comments from folks about not voting for a woman...ever, that Mormonism is a cult, etc etc.

I believe that voter turn out in southern states will make or break the election for the republicans.

Obama has a pretty large African American base in the same states that have these issues with the rep. Candidates. If he can reenergize that base and get a good turn out it could get interesting. There maybe states in play that have been in the republican's back pocket forever.

I know my father would rather not vote at all than vote against his beliefs, as ridiculous as I think they are. And I know many many more who think just like him.

reply to post by HelloJCneedsomehelp


I would bet you ANYTHING that you're wrong about this. Obama was always aloof. Always. As a kid, as a teen, as a college kid... always.

His behaviour isn't a predictor of anything.

I think someone called you out on your agenda in your last thread. I think this makes it all the more apparent. I do not think we need a thread every single day extolling the virtues of Obama and why no other candidate can beat him. Is there supposed to be a conspiracy in this? Perhaps this thread is more suited for one of the thousand other boards on the Internet that like that type of thing.

reply to post by captainnotsoobvious


If Obama wins re-election, it will be because of...

The FACT that the president and other world leaders are pre picked and the votes are just acceptance scans of the populace to double check to see if the pre picks were correct.

Be well

I'm inclined to agree with most of what you said. Despite the horrible economy the GOP does not have that clear cut front runner. You forgot to add Romneycare as a big detractor to his status after all the medicare deal was molded after a republican idea.

I like Paul but he is not supported by his party and is constantly treated like a non entity and a quack by MSM and especially his own party. Despite making the most sense.

Bachman is a bit to fringe for the majority of peoples tastes.

If enough people read Perry's book FED up he will lose a lot of mainstream and Independents because of his views on Medicare and SS

Also if Libya falls to rebels as is being orchestrated Obama can also tout not only get Osama, if you believe it, but also successfully mounting a 6 month offense and not involving any US troops on the ground or casualties and having the backing of the international community including the African Union. One of his big detractions during campaign is if he would be tough enough on National Security

Originally posted by Wetpaint72
I tend to agree. I am not a republican, but oddly am friends with many...who knew?. In essence the problem will be voter turn out.

I am from the deep south and have heard many comments from folks about not voting for a woman...ever, that Mormonism is a cult, etc etc.

I believe that voter turn out in southern states will make or break the election for the republicans.

Obama has a pretty large African American base in the same states that have these issues with the rep. Candidates. If he can reenergize that base and get a good turn out it could get interesting. There maybe states in play that have been in the republican's back pocket forever.

I know my father would rather not vote at all than vote against his beliefs, as ridiculous as I think they are. And I know many many more who think just like him.

Personally I think there's a lot of anti-Obama stuff from the left, due to Obama-fatigue and the dawning awareness that he's not some messiah. He's also not hugely liberal, and as such has kinda pissed off his base.

But...

Put up against Perry and the Dems will flock to the pols, same with Palin. Romney again, won't alarm as many Dems (who could really care less about his Mormonism), but the negative numbers he'll draw in the south will, as you point out, cause a loss.

Unless the GOP finds a mainstream Christian "Romney" from the South... good luck.

If Obama wins re-election, it will be because of... He hires the same people that rigged George. W Bush' election.

reply to post by captainnotsoobvious


Well thought and unbiased. The GOP pack is still trying to sort itself out. Personally, I don't care about the faith of the candidate, but many do.

I think that is a wrong way to pick your candidate, it's based upon emotion rather than rationality.

That is what got us the current crew in the White House.

I predict that if Obama were to get re-elected and America continues down the same path, we will see a long period where the DNC will lose power again.

reply to post by captainnotsoobvious


Elections are just theater for sheep who are hopelessly hypnotized by the grand delusion. If he wins it will because that is what was in the script.

reply to post by Ophiuchus 13


[rolls eyes]

American "democracy" isn't anywhere near perfect, but it's not the fait accompli you seem to think it is either... if it was there wouldn't be so much voter suppression and crazy re-districting... those things alone prove it's not all some back room deal... add to that the fact that most Presidents don't really get much they want most of the time, and it's pretty obvious isn't a CT dictatorship, but just a really really flawed "democracy".

reply to post by JesusLives


Instead of C+Ping I'll just link you to this response: www.abovetopsecret.com...

In summary: you are wrong.

reply to post by BigBruddah


That's actually pretty funny

Although the guy who actually did the supposed rigging died in a plane "crash"... so, I guess if you know how to rig electronic voting machines now is the time to update your resume...

From my perch you nailed it O.P. I am singularly unimpressed with any GOP candidates: only Ron Paul speaks to me
Any hard core religious folks(i.e .perry are"nonstarters".) My wife (who studies current politics while I am burning time here) says Paul is simply"unelectable"( too extreme).
Still: "Oh-man and spouse" need to go...
I guess I'm just gonna be crabby and generally unhappy for another 4 years!

I have to argue with the "stability" argument because the stock market is anything but stable. Wouldn't all those investors want something different? I'll agree the big banks are enjoying their bail outs so that is really his own support base. I don't even think democrats are supporting him anymore.

reply to post by captainnotsoobvious


I hear what you are saying but like I was saying I feel they are all pre set. the populace is just given a chance so they dont feel left out. lol now no eyes rolling. I think Obama tries his best but again I feel it was all preplanned. Think about it, a president or major world leader plays a major role in BIG BUSINESS. By influencing certain regulations ect. that effect BIG BUSINESS. SO if BIG BUSINESS seen a threat to the GLOBAL financial scheme of things they would lose money and would have to go thru more elder back door ways of adjusting this regulator. SO wouldnt it be smart for the BB folx to know who will be next to set global regulations which will cause money lost or gained and to go further HOLD THERE OWN LOL ELECTIONS IN THEIR PERSONAL LOCATIONS.. Now this area the pres. may or may not know of. But higher above him SHOULD KNOW..

reply to post by 46ACE


the funny thing is that Liberals won't be hugely happy either...

I'd guess that the only people happy for the next 4-5 years will be political commentators...

reply to post by Ophiuchus 13




I know WHY you say that, but again, why spend billions on campaigns and lobbying and redisricting, why bother to try and suppress votes?

IF you wanna know what that REALLY looks like, there's examples around the world...


Now... would I say that Americans don't have REAL choices, when it comes to their President...? Yeah, well, more yes than no... but that's almost more an historical anomaly related to the two-party system voters seem to favour... and by that I mean, we've hard third party candidates, many of them, and no one votes for them, because, basically the American voter is pretty damn cynical...

"don't throw your vote away"

etc etc etc

reply to post by captainnotsoobvious


Well: The two party system is less a habit, but more a function of the "winner takes all"-mechanic.
A 3rd-party candidate could make 49% in all states. He still wouldn't get a single electoral college vote.
It's not cynical to say a 3rd party vote is wasted under this system, it's the truth.