NASA "crapping their pants"

reply to post by Phage

I just liked his point about the mass of the object.
Well you know me Phage, I post the stuff that is intriguing to me hasn't been seen before and wait for you to come along and see what you think? Didn't have to wait to long so, right on. I wait for your opinion before I even form one.

It would be funny, if one ever turned up and your reaction was" Oh crap ! ". That would be an attention getter huh !

Phage,

C/2010 X1 Elenin is not on a hyperbolic orbit. The calculated eccentricity of slightly greater than 1 is based on the Sun being the centre of mass of the Solar System. When the Solar System barycentre is used as the centre of mass, and perturbations by Saturn (December 2008) and Jupiter (December 2012) are taken into account, the "future" orbital period of C/2010 X1 Elenin will be approximately 11900 years (semi-major axis ~ 520AU). Therefore, it WILL return!

reply to post by Mogget

Thanks for the correction.
I'll wait for its next arrival with bated breath.

I thought that when an orbit is super elliptical prediction becomes chaotic and anyway no one knows what propelled Elenin this way to begin with and what if it was a passing star that won't be passing again and what about Mars on the way out - isn't that going to reperturb? And how can a barycentre be calculated based on the sun without knowing what propelled it to begin with?

heh, an NASA official keeps making sure to call Elenin "SAFE" and "WHIMPY COMET" - what gives.

gosh, its always about instilling a FALSE sense of security when it comes to all things gov

And how can a barycentre be calculated based on the sun without knowing what propelled it to begin with?

The Solar System barycentre is the centre of mass of the planetary region. This is not the centre of the Sun, because the giant planets (particularly Jupiter and Saturn) perturb the Sun by a distance roughly equal to its own radius (approximately 700,000 kms). When a comet (or any other object) moves beyond the orbits of the outer planets, these perturbations make a significant difference to the orbital elements.

The Solar System barycentre has nothing whatsoever to do with any passing stars that perturb comets from the Oort Cloud.

and here I thought the space stations tolits are on the blink again .
Should have made the Correct Tital ((not Another ELE thread))

Originally posted by Mogget

And how can a barycentre be calculated based on the sun without knowing what propelled it to begin with?

The Solar System barycentre is the centre of mass of the planetary region. This is not the centre of the Sun, because the giant planets (particularly Jupiter and Saturn) perturb the Sun by a distance roughly equal to its own radius (approximately 700,000 kms). When a comet (or any other object) moves beyond the orbits of the outer planets, these perturbations make a significant difference to the orbital elements.

The Solar System barycentre has nothing whatsoever to do with any passing stars that perturb comets from the Oort Cloud.

Thankyou for your explanation. I understand what you're saying. I don't understand how the solar system barycentre relates to an Oort Cloud comet propelled into the solar system by forces unknown. Are you saying that it's now going to become a Kuiper Belt comet with a predictable orbit? Forgive me in advance if I'm missing something very obvious and basic.

C/2010 X1 Elenin is almost certainly a new arrival from the Oort Cloud. Hundreds of thousands of years ago, it will have been perturbed by a passing star. This will have reduced its orbital velocity, and caused it to effectively "drop like a stone" towards the Sun. You have to understand that the orbital velocity of a comet in the Oort Cloud is only a few metres per second, so even a very gentle perturbation can have drastic consequences. In short, if a passing star robs the comet of those few metres per second, its orbital velocity will drop to almost zero, and that results in a steady "fall" towards the Sun.

As the comet enters the planetary region, it will suffer perturbations from the planets/asteroids/Kuiper Belt objects etc. If it was somehow "immune" to these perturbations, then it would simply pass through perihelion (closest approach to the Sun), and head back out to the Oort Cloud. The orbital period would be hundreds of thousands of years. However, comets are not immune to gravity. They are pushed and pulled around as they pass through the planetary region, and the effect of these perturbations depends on how closley they approach particular objects, and how massive the perturbing body is. Now, it just so happens that C/2010 X1 Elenin passed 2.66AU from Saturn in December 2008, and it will pass 2.40AU from Jupiter in December 2012. Both of these encounters have slowed the comet down, and reduced the orbital period to such an extent that the "future" orbit of the comet (the orbit that it will have after it has passed beyond the influence of the planets) is considerably smaller than the "original" orbit (before it entered the planetary region). It has been calculated that the orbital period will have been reduced to approximately 11800 years, and the aphelion (furthest distance from the Sun) will be roughly 1000AUs. That is still over 30 times the distance of Neptune from the Sun, but it is a hundred times less than the distance to the Oort Cloud!

Those encounters with Saturn and Jupiter are not particularly close, but even very shallow encounters can have a massive effect on the orbital period of an Oort Cloud comet.

reply to post by Mogget


WOW!! What a cool explanation. Got it all now and appreciate your time.

**Just a note that Mensur Omerbashich tweaked his "prediction" to expect that their would be an increase in 6+ quakes in "ALL REGIONS" (from now 'til whenever?) as opposed to specific regions he mentioned in past predictions.

As to another thread I read that there is speculation that there is proof Elenin is not affected by alignments because the last couple quakes weren't directly related to a specific alignment - that is not necessarily disproved is it? The comet is getting so close that it should be affecting us more and more each day (if it IS genuinely affecting us... I guess we will know more clearly in pretty short order!!)

A stupid question for anyone, and, uh, can you please answer in "physics for dummies" language, thanks!

I'm reading Mogget's great explanation of his theory about Elenin's orbit - the "'drop like a stone' towards the sun" (and "fall" - sounds so biblical!). So if the Sun is what is drawing it, why doesn't the comet end up going straight into the sun and get burned up? Most of you apparently think it will loop back around. So is this what they usually do when they come from the Oort cloud? Ta!

Originally posted by ignant
heh, an NASA official keeps making sure to call Elenin "SAFE" and "WHIMPY COMET" - what gives.

gosh, its always about instilling a FALSE sense of security when it comes to all things gov

What makes you think it's a false sense of security? And personally I don't think the Gov. instills a false sense of security, look at all the hyperbole about terrorists and the color coded alert system, quite the opposite of your prediction. Not to mention what they are saying about Irene, no false sense of security there.

So if the Sun is what is drawing it, why doesn't the comet end up going straight into the sun and get burned up? Most of you apparently think it will loop back around. So is this what they usually do when they come from the Oort cloud?

The reason that C/2010 X1 Elenin will not dive straight into the Sun is because it still has a small velocity component perpendicular to the direction of the Sun. In other words, the star that perturbed it hundreds of thousands of years ago did not quite rob it of 100% of its angular velocity. This is apparently just enough to allow the comet to "miss" the Sun by roughly 0.5AU, and head back into deep space.

Of course, plenty of comets (most of them small fragments) hit the Sun each year. These are objects that have had virtually all of their angular velocity removed by encounters in the distant past (either the initial perturbation that sent them towards the Sun from the Oort Cloud, or because they passed very close to one of the giant planets at a later date).

reply to post by Mogget

Thanks for your time Mogget!! That was concise yet so easy to understand!! I hope you are writing a book or something...

I wonder what Never A Straight Answer NASA thinks about this then?

Autowrench video from CNN - sounds pretty dramatic.

Hey buffs! - check out this vid - I found it on an Irene storm thread:

Elenin The commentary sounds pretty genuine, and that certainly is the Sky Tower. What are your thoughts - is that the comet?? If not, what the hay is it? What's with the forked tongue/tail? Is it what you expected? I just went outside since I'm also in NZ, but it's after dark and I don't see anything unusual. Maybe I should check the same time he did the video tomorrow.

I think it's a sunlit aircraft contrail, as seen from behind. It certainly isn't Comet Elenin.

reply to post by Mogget



Hi Mogget. I think that sounds very plausible!

But I'm also thinking that this is a small country past the boondocks, not really on anyone's flight path and Auckland is the main international airport - so most flights are either landing or taking off there, they wouldn't have that high altitude. Being curious, I did a search re: flight paths and found this website: www.mysteriousnewzealand.com...
It's quite informative and has all the flight vectors and links to all flights on certain flight paths. Basically:

Using the Mysterious New Zealand Map In conjunction with a visual sighting of a contrail, it should be possible to use the map to identify a destination or departure point associated with that aircraft. Or to identify a craft whose vector does not fit any of those indicated on the map.

it also says:

Generally any vector variations from commercial aircraft will be observed in the approach to an airport, usually at relatively low altitude and will most likely be due to required approach direction. For example, Auckland International Airport runway is roughly South West/North East, reflecting the prevailing winds in this particular part of the country. Therefore, if the wind is North East, aircraft will approach from the South West and flights from Australia will cross the coast at a particular point further Northwards than indicated on the map, even at times as far North as the Kaipara Harbour, then do a right turn and circle to the North East approach path. At times we also see flights approaching on say the Vanuatu/Japan vector drift somewhat eastwards and we presume this is due to a required South West approach to the Auckland runway. Aircraft may also be directed to enter a holding pattern due to traffic and this may likewise affect their approach vector. These types of variations will no doubt be seen at other locations around New Zealand as circumstances dictate.

But I suppose it's irrelevant since it said the exception is: "Some information on military flights is naturally restricted, nor are these flights particularly frequent, so even in the fullness of time, they will not generally be vectored on this map."

We also have a lot going on right now as we are sponsoring the Rugby World Cup in 10 days and have a lot of dignitaries and whatnots flying in. It's a huge hype over here, even school holidays are adjusted around it.

The site does give a link to archived satellite images for that day, so I looked to see if there was anything interesting to see. The last image available was for 5:11 that day (video was 5:55) and I see no contrails, but I also am not real familiar with this. Nothing looked out of the ordinary to me. There have been no images since that day?? - when the recent data showed 1-4 each day - but maybe there is a lag time for posting. There is also a link to the NASA visible earth site for checking comtrails but it won't open for me.
In any case, it's cloudy and rainy here today - nothing for me to see.

The site also recommended a forum link. As far as I could see I saw nothing posted about this.

Well, that was my fun homework for the day...sorry, this was probably boring and long-winded!!
Cheers!

Originally posted by ovumcranium
reply to post by Mogget

 

But I'm also thinking that this is a small country past the boondocks, not really on anyone's flight path and Auckland is the main international airport - so most flights are either landing or taking off there, they wouldn't have that high altitude.

It is clearly not overhead auckland - it is relatively low in the sky and at 35,000 feet the horizon is about 220 miles away.

You can see an obvious candidate on www.flightradar24.com... - UAE 435 is a Boeing 777 at 35,000 feet or thereabouts at 05:55 UTC on the 27th of August, and well within 200 miles of Auckland - about 60-80 I think - sorry I left the scale off the picture, but if you look for the info yourself you will see it easy enough.

To select a date and time hit the "Playback" button, top right and select a date and time. Local Auckland time is 12 hours ahead of UTC - so 17:55 hours at Auckland is actually 05:55 hrs UTC the same day.



the "forked tail" is the 2 engine exhausts swirling in the wake turbulence - the fact that they seem to be a constant length shows that this is a short lived contrail ratehr than a persistent one - had they lasted longer they would probably have merged into a single one.