i dont quite see why it should hit or should have hit earth, because the animated diagramm is 2 dimensional. it seems the flare goes towards earth,
but could approach in a different "height", so it misses earth by going underneath or above.
This diagram is not two dimensional. The left one is top down, the middle one is tangential (I believe, could be wrong, I have the hardest time
understanding the middle graph), but the far right graph is equitorial and it shows we are directly in the path of this 'wave'.
I dont see any tells in The XRay Flux though, so Im not sure what to make of the whole
ordeal. Nothing being reported at spaceweather dot com. *shrugs*
The ENLIL stuff is a model used to create a forecast. It looks like that one was created on 8/16 (hence why the date is measuring time since 8/16).
Forecasts can be wrong. If you look at the latest ENLIL density plot here, which
looks like it was last updated as one 18:00 on 8/18, you'll see it doesn't show a CME in the historical or forecasted time periods.
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