Sun storms 'could be more disruptive within decades'

This is and interesting article from the bbc which seems to contradict the news recently that we are about to enter a quiet time in the suns life - and even be about to enter into a mini ice age (possibly).

"We used this data to say that an unfortunate combination of solar conditions is coming our way in the next few decades."

"It's just a question of how much worse the radiation gets and how long it lasts."

now im no expert but this does seem to conflict with the recent news from nasa as the bbc are talking about this happening over decades...

"In a grand solar maximum, the peaks of the 11-year sunspot cycle are larger and the average number of solar flares and associated events such as coronal mass ejections are greater.

"On the other hand in a grand solar minimum there are almost no sunspots for several decades. The last time this happened was during the Maunder Minimum, between about 1650 and 1700."

Thoughts please sun experts!

There is no contradiction. The problem is not increased solar radiation. The theory is that reduced solar activity reduces the amount of protection from galactic cosmic rays which the heliosphere provides. Low solar activity means more GCRs enter the Solar System.

The danger is in our reliance upon satellite communications and air travel. If the theories (a deep minimum and the connection to GCRs) are correct satellites (and astronauts) would be at increased risk as would the passengers of high flying aircraft.

This article is a little more detailed than the BBC and the title is more accurate.
www.physorg.com...

reply to post by doubledutch

This is not at all supported by at least most solar physicists. The fact is that we have no idea what solar activity will be like in a few decades.
All they know for sure is that this one will be weak and that there are signs that next one could be weak as well, but again they aren't sure about this.

We sadly don't know enough to predict solar activity decades ahead...

I think bbc and other main stream news is good at cherry picking whatever so called prediction that sells most newspapers.
There were plenty of such articles about this cycle as well long after it was settled that it would be a very weak cycle.

reply to post by Phage

High cosmic rays are less of a problem than strong solar activity...
But you are right that the lower activity the more cosmic rays reaches our planet.
Astronauts like you said would be at bigger risk though, since they get higher dose of radiation.

I am more interested in cosmic rays vs climate, as it seems like more cosmic rays equals cooling of earth.

Cosmic rays have already been higher than ever recorded thanks to the grand minimum we just experienced:
link
If it had a strong effect on satellites then it would have had so already.

reply to post by juleol

The problem is with an extended period of low activity, not a single deep minimum. The theory is that during an extended period, over several cycles, the heliosphere "deflates". If that is true, cosmic ray levels will continue to rise if the low activity continues.

thanks for the reply's

so in short then - and in layman's terms - if we have extended periods of low solar activity our protective bubble (heliosphere) deflates and we are exposed to more radiation?

Also it might be the case that more cosmic rays reaching earth = cooler weather?

and that the bbc are fear mongering..?

reply to post by Phage

I haven't heard about that one, but interesting theory for sure.
I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully they will be smart enough to add some extra protection to satellites in near future.