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The Big 3

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posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:03 PM
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At this moment in time I think it is fair to make a rather fair prediction of who the big 3 contenders for the GOP nomination will be come 2012. With new polls coming out almost daily time will change and so will the candidates ranking in the polls, sometimes they will get a bump and sometimes they will take a hit. What must be analyzed is how they are doing overall. From what I have been able to see, the big three will be: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul.

The reason those three candidates make the big three is that they each have support within a particular faction of the GOP. There are overall about 3 notable factions within the party: Evangelicals, Moderates, and Anti-Establishment. The Tea Party can be broken down into two groups: Evangelicals and Anti-Establishment. Both claim to be anti-establishment but the evangelicals will always flock to the candidate which caters most to their needs and that is always an establishment type.

Mitt Romney: He has been able to virtually lockout Jon Huntsman from the Moderate faction of the party. If Rudy Giuliani or Paul Ryan were to jump in, this ‘big 3’ would be shaken up. But as it stands Romney holds the Establishment of the party. He is the one Moderate-to-Liberal Republicans will back because he comes off as the most responsible, calm, and ‘presidential’ of the group who does not stray far from the party line in rhetoric. His power base will be in the more Liberal US States across the Northeast, upper Midwest, and across the West.

Rick Perry: He joined the race siphoning votes away from Michele Bachmann. He has a more broad and powerful appeal than Bachmann to the Evangelical group. His rhetoric fires up this base which is opposed to abortion, gun restrictions, climate change science, evolution, and has a general distrust of government but no fear of administering it when they hold the power. His base of support will be across the South, Great Plains, and parts of the West.

Ron Paul: This candidate has a very powerful following and loses support in polls only when Sarah Palin is polled as well. These are the staunch anti-establishment crowd which will support the candidate most likely to buck the status quo. No one else with support like him is expected to join the race so he is pretty safe. The only problem for Paul is that the Evangelical candidate tends to use the rhetoric of the anti-establishment then govern as the establishment, thus religiously misleading the anti-establishment crowd. His base of support, because of his specific politics, will be based in New England, the Rocky Mountains, and the Great Lakes.

Below are several polls for the 2012 primaries:

National (8/15): Perry 29%, Romney 18%, Paul 9%
National (8/9): Romney 21%, Perry 13%, Paul 6%
National (8/7): Romney 23%, Perry 18%, Paul 14%
National (8/7): Romney 24%, Perry 17%, Paul 14%
National (8/2): Romney 23%, Perry 13%, Paul 9%

And here is a full list of all the polling for the primaries in the states polled so far:
Polls

Here are a few state polls not yet added to that list:

California (8/15): Romney 22%, Perry 15%, Paul 5%
Iowa (8/17): Perry 29%, Romney 15%, Paul 8%
New York (8/14): Romney 18%, Paul 8%, Perry 6%




posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:06 PM
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reply to post by Misoir
 



His base of support, because of his specific politics, will be based in New England, the Rocky Mountains, and the Great Lakes.


If he wins that base of support, then he should have a great shot!

I think his base of support is Smalltown, USA, Texas, the Midwest, and the South! He also has big support across College Campuses.

If we are both right, then he has a wider base than we expected!!

I think your OP is a pretty good representation of the race right now.



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:07 PM
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You can replace Ron Paul with Bachmann. I know he is loved here on ATS but in reality the people don't really care for him and he isn't doing anything that will change his message. He is simply known as "the guy who hates the fed".

Bachmann however, crazy as she is, has the support of Tea Party and is splitting the religious right with Perry.



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:24 PM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


Ron Paul does not have a strong base of support in the South, at all. That is the battleground of the Bachmann/Perry Conservatives. It is very pro-interventionist and socially conservative. Paul has a stronger base of support across the rather Isolationist Midwest and anti-authority Northeast and Rocky Mountains.



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:36 PM
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reply to post by Misoir
 


My question is the deep south. My family still lives there, in SC. They are deeply religious and deeply republican, among other things this post will reveal...

My mother votes for who my father tells her to vote for...and it will not be Bachman...because he thinks that women are not supposed to rule over men...

It will not be Romney, because mormonism, is a cult...

It won't be Cain, because he is black...

He will not vote for Ron Paul, because my sister and her three illegitimate children need that government check...

It won't be Guliani, he hangs out with gays...

So who is left...


Just informing you of a conversation I had with my father, and I know thousands more like him.

edit on 18-8-2011 by Wetpaint72 because: Due to this reality..I would say Perry and some currently unannounced VP......sadly



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:36 PM
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Can you explain the "rather Isolationist Midwest" statement in more detail, please? Not sure I get what you mean....living here in the Midwest....



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:49 PM
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Originally posted by wildtimes
Can you explain the "rather Isolationist Midwest" statement in more detail, please? Not sure I get what you mean....living here in the Midwest....


The Midwest has had a long political history of favoring a more “hands off” approach to global affairs since the 19th century. The Democrats were destroyed across this region in 1920 election because Woodrow Wilson took us into WWI which was deeply unpopular among the Nordic and German ethnic groups which dominated not only the region, but the Democratic Party in the region. So North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan ended up voting 70%+ for the Republican Warren G. Harding who was opposed to the League of Nations.

Chicago has long been observed as the bastion of American Isolationist politics for many reasons. Other than ethnic the region can also trace back in its history that most of the businesses across the Great Lakes involved themselves little with investment outside of this country, unlike the Northeast businesses which invested heavily in Europe.

Just look at the America First Committee during the 1930s and into 1941, they wanted the US to stay out of WWII entirely. Most of their members were located in or around Chicago, Illinois. Robert Taft was a Senator from the state of Ohio who opposed the UN, NATO, fighting the Cold War, and even the Nuremburg trials which he considered victors making up laws to punish the losers.

So the Midwest has a long history of being opposed to intervention abroad in situations that do not threaten our nation. Of course as our country has become far more internationalist since the end of WWII the influence of non-interventionists and Isolationists have been reserved to what is considered the ‘fringe’ they still exist and find much of their support among the ‘America First’ crowd of the Midwest.

It is not an insult by any means, so please do not take it as one, it is merely a political observation due to study of American political history. Plus, I consider myself an Isolationist so that is what makes me like the Midwest politically.



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:51 PM
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reply to post by Misoir
 


I'm in the South, and he has me. He also has some of the Tea Party here in my town.

To be honest though, I am from the Midwest, and the supporters here that I know, were likely turned by me. So I could be wrong about the South.

However, there is a HUGE anti-establishment movement in the South, and if you remember right, the last big movement for "State's Rights" led to a CIVIL WAR, right here in the South!


There is certainly a Ron Paul sentiment here waiting to be cultivated.

Some Southern Anti-Establishment Sentiments!!




A link to some Southern Rock / Red Dirt Country Music becoming very popular at the moment.

Some More Hank Jr.






posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:53 PM
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Big 3?? more like big 2 .. Ron Paul can't even reach double digits.


edit on 18-8-2011 by WXBackdoor because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 08:57 PM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


The South will line up behind Rick Perry; I do not question that in the least. Perhaps the Ron Paul ecstasy is making you talk like he will sweep the South but history, polling, and logic says otherwise. He can barely even claw his way past 5% in most Southern states, let alone come close enough to take the nomination in any of them. They are Perry states and if anything happens to Perry they will be Bachmann states, simple as that.

Have you checked on the polling in the Southern states outside of the nomination even? Notice anything strange about them? How about the fact that some of the states trending towards the Democrats are mostly located in the South? Or the fact that Obama’s support has dropped least in the South?

www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...



posted on Aug, 18 2011 @ 09:21 PM
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reply to post by Misoir
 


Cool. I had just written a fairly long response post, but, it's not really necessary so I deleted it. Yes, I guess you would call me an "Isolationist". I totally believe the USA should BUTT THE HE[[ OUT of the rest of the world and look to it's own issues!!

Sheesh.
Cheers!

ETA: I was born in Waukegan, a suburb of Chicago along Lake Shore drive, and my parents moved us to a college town in NE Kansas for my dad's employment reasons....as an engineer of sublime talent, he went to work for Bill Lear (Lear Jet), then started his own company.....so, I'm a midwesterner by birthright, and yeah, the Germanic/Nordic thing....yeah. Although, strangely, I've never felt like this part of the country/world is "home". It's when I'm near the mountains and ocean that I feel I'm "home". Totally off-topic, but, oh well. Self-disclosure.


edit on 18-8-2011 by wildtimes because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 19 2011 @ 09:01 AM
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reply to post by Misoir
 


The Ron Paul fever isn't getting to me yet, LOL! I admitted you might be right, and it might be my Midwest side clouding my opinion. I honestly do not believe Bachmann has a chance down here. They won't support her. The South has always supported Democrats, and with the huge black population, it doesn't surprise me that Obama's numbers are still decent here.

I'm just saying that Ron Paul has a huge opportunity here, and it wouldn't take much to turn that "anti-establisment" and "state's rights" to his favor. If he campaigns here, he will do well here. This is a rowdy area, and we love to shake things up, and Ron Paul is the perfect man for shaking things up!!

Bachmann won't even be in this thing much longer, but you might be right about Perry. A lot of people love him, and they don't realize he is actually a Democrat in a Republican suit. They don't realize he sold out on the NAFTA highway, even after campaigning against it. They don't realize that he made it MANDATORY for young women to get the HPV vaccine despite the very little research and very loose connection between HPV and Cancer. They don't realize he was the campaign manager for the ultra-liberal Al Gore. So far Perry is popular, but I don't think it will be hard to plant some doubts about him.
edit on 19-8-2011 by getreadyalready because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 19 2011 @ 12:07 PM
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reply to post by Wetpaint72
 


This is true, i live in the "south" and live in a redneck community. Surprisingly though, there are many Ron Paul Banners and Bumper stickers around here that popped up in the last election.

Michelle and Palin won't win, they are idiots.

Obama will loose because the Global Elite wants to mix it up a bit.

It will be Perry or Romney.

(notice ron paul isn't mentioned, much like the media
)
edit on 19-8-2011 by doom27 because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 22 2011 @ 08:04 AM
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Originally posted by doom27
reply to post by Wetpaint72
 


This is true, i live in the "south" and live in a redneck community. Surprisingly though, there are many Ron Paul Banners and Bumper stickers around here that popped up in the last election.

Michelle and Palin won't win, they are idiots.

Obama will loose because the Global Elite wants to mix it up a bit.

It will be Perry or Romney.

(notice ron paul isn't mentioned, much like the media
)
edit on 19-8-2011 by doom27 because: (no reason given)


I am not a republican, but, I would think this observation I made with my father would be known among them...am I right. This is about voter turn out. I would suspect that the southern states are important to their party. He would rather not vote at all than vote against his beliefs, as ridiculous as they are. But Obama has a large base in southern states, if he can engage them and light the fire to get out and participate, this could be interesting.



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