At this moment in time I think it is fair to make a rather fair prediction of who the big 3 contenders for the GOP nomination will be come 2012. With
new polls coming out almost daily time will change and so will the candidates ranking in the polls, sometimes they will get a bump and sometimes they
will take a hit. What must be analyzed is how they are doing overall. From what I have been able to see, the big three will be: Mitt Romney, Rick
Perry, and Ron Paul.
The reason those three candidates make the big three is that they each have support within a particular faction of the GOP. There are overall about 3
notable factions within the party: Evangelicals, Moderates, and Anti-Establishment. The Tea Party can be broken down into two groups: Evangelicals and
Anti-Establishment. Both claim to be anti-establishment but the evangelicals will always flock to the candidate which caters most to their needs and
that is always an establishment type.
Mitt Romney: He has been able to virtually lockout Jon Huntsman from the Moderate faction of the party. If Rudy Giuliani or Paul Ryan were to jump in,
this ‘big 3’ would be shaken up. But as it stands Romney holds the Establishment of the party. He is the one Moderate-to-Liberal Republicans will
back because he comes off as the most responsible, calm, and ‘presidential’ of the group who does not stray far from the party line in rhetoric.
His power base will be in the more Liberal US States across the Northeast, upper Midwest, and across the West.
Rick Perry: He joined the race siphoning votes away from Michele Bachmann. He has a more broad and powerful appeal than Bachmann to the Evangelical
group. His rhetoric fires up this base which is opposed to abortion, gun restrictions, climate change science, evolution, and has a general distrust
of government but no fear of administering it when they hold the power. His base of support will be across the South, Great Plains, and parts of the
Ron Paul: This candidate has a very powerful following and loses support in polls only when Sarah Palin is polled as well. These are the staunch
anti-establishment crowd which will support the candidate most likely to buck the status quo. No one else with support like him is expected to join
the race so he is pretty safe. The only problem for Paul is that the Evangelical candidate tends to use the rhetoric of the anti-establishment then
govern as the establishment, thus religiously misleading the anti-establishment crowd. His base of support, because of his specific politics, will be
based in New England, the Rocky Mountains, and the Great Lakes.
Below are several polls for the 2012 primaries:
National (8/15): Perry 29%, Romney 18%, Paul 9%
National (8/9): Romney 21%, Perry 13%, Paul 6%
National (8/7): Romney 23%, Perry 18%, Paul 14%
National (8/7): Romney 24%, Perry 17%, Paul 14%
National (8/2): Romney 23%, Perry 13%, Paul 9%
And here is a full list of all the polling for the primaries in the states polled so far:
Here are a few state polls not yet added to that list:
California (8/15): Romney 22%, Perry 15%, Paul
Iowa (8/17): Perry 29%, Romney 15%, Paul 8%
New York (8/14): Romney 18%, Paul 8%, Perry 6%