al queda

in regards to an attack by al queda:

if the goal of al queda is American disengagement from Arabia and the creation of an Arab Califate then the scope and form of the next attack is important for thier survival and conitinued support among the arab world.

If the next al queda attack in the U.S. is less than catastrophic to the U.S.
such as the detonation of a nuclear/ biologic device device in a major city/cities, resulting in a severe economic recession/ depression and extensive loss of life then they will be wasting thier time and increasing the chances that we will destroy them even more.

Only such an attack could cause a sea change in the american public and political psyche and lead to american disengagement. The example would be american withdrawl from vietnam.

Anything less ( conventional bombing or assination ) while it would be tragic
would reveal thier hand that they are unable to obtain these weapons and and probably never will. If they can't deliver a knockout then they are not a serious threat.

I can assure you that, in the event of a nuclear detonation in a US city by Al-Qaeda, the american response will not be one of dis-engagement, but rather one of complete and total incineration.

bye bye caliphate.

I really wonder.

My opinion is that random "shotgun" style attacks, like the ones carried out in the P-I conflict, would be more destabilizing to the U.S. population than a single massive attack.

Let's face it, like the previous poster stated, if a massive nuclear or bio/chem attacked in a major U.S. city, extreme measure would ensue.

But if the next tactic is random suicide bombers at your local Piggly Wiggly or shopping mall, then what is created is exhaustive fear driven by "you never know where is next". This is where wits wear thin, and people become desparate.

If you don't know if you are going to make it to work because the subway you're on may be the next target, or you don't know if you'll come out of a movie theater alive, that can be a very destabilizing factor.

I agree totaly with the K_7.

Al queda, in my mind, will not attack untill they can do something huge. I also think that they would be willing to wait many years if they have too.

Like you said, small attacks will only cause them more problems then they are having now with their plans (if they are having problems). Small attacks, I would think, would also have a higher chance of being detected for the simple fact of there would be more of them and more evindence to help the USA.

They have witnessed the power of a major attack on the USA and I think they thought that 911 was a pretty good first major attack... I would think that they would try for bigger and not smaller.

shotgun attacks would be painful but look at the british. they lived with the IRA
for fifty years. the IRA really accomplished very little. look at the plo/israeli conflict. the only reason the israelis are giving them anything is because of world opinion and pressure to not completely destroy the palestinians..

there are incredible gains to be made by foriegn powers and players if US
power is diminished by demoralizing the people of the US resulting in US disengagement

I think some son of a bitch has given al queda what they want and the next attack will be disastrous.