The title is not intended to be misleading, President Obama is still polling Vermont in a way that will guarantee it remains a blue state for him but
compared to 2008 against John McCain, his support has collapsed nearly to half. Obama won Vermont by an enormous 37 point lead back in the last
election but running against Mitt Romney (Ron Paul was not included) his support has fallen to a lead of only 20 points, down 17.
Although Romney has the strongest showing for many reasons, he was the governor of a neighboring New England state, he polls best against Obama
nationally, and is considered the more moderate candidate of the party in 2012, but that has not stopped the other candidates from polling better than
the 2008 results. Michele Bachmann even improves from the McCain’s 37 point loss to a loss of 28 points, Perry down 29 points, Cain down 32 points,
and Palin down 34 points. Even Sarah Palin outperforms John McCain in Vermont, which shows just how bad Obama has been hit in this state.
A 20 point lead for Obama over a Republican challenger in Vermont would give about the same results as 2004 in the state.
Democratic polling agency – PPP
Siena Poll - New York
Obama job approval: 36% Excellent/Good | 63% Fair/Poor
52% favorable | 45% unfavorable
47% Re-elect | 45% someone else
51% Obama | 37% Generic Republican
50% Obama | 44% Rudy Giuliani
55% Obama | 37% Mitt Romney
57% Obama | 32% Ron Paul
57% Obama | 30% Rick Perry
60% Obama | 30% Michele Bachmann
65% Obama | 26% Sarah Palin
If Paul, Romney, or Giuliani are nominated and run against Obama they will improve on McCain's 2008 election results which were -27 points against
Obama. Paul would improve to -25, Romney to -18, and Giuliani to -6.
We should also take into consideration the partisan trends of the states under Obama, which I have highlighted in my thread
Partisan trend for Republicans:
New York | -2%
Vermont | +7%
edit on 8/17/2011 by Misoir because: (no reason given)