At last! Evidence that Elenin is NO threat! From the man himself!

Hi all,

I have been an avid follower of the Elenin sensationalism that has been circulating the web, to be honest my mind was split between threat and no threat. Now I definately believe Elenin poses no threat at all. Leonid Elenin has posted on Spaceobs today:

I have received many questions as to whether these two objects may collide, or whether they might come so close to one another that they can change their orbits to head directly for Earth. Categorically – NO. Minimum distance between the two objects will happen September 13 (three days after the comet passes perihelion), and that distance is 0.1688 a.u., on the order of 25,252,000 km – 10 million km less than the distance of closest approach of Comet Elenin to our planet, which will take place October 16. As you know, May 21 was the closest approach of Comet C/2010 X1 to asteroid 1999 RQ176; the objects passed all of 225,830 km from each other, more than 100 times closer than the minimum distance between Comet Elenin and asteroid 2005 YU55! After that encounter, new position measuments of the comet and asteroid 1999 RQ176 were obtained. On such a short timescale no influence was noted, which means it is practically nil. For that reason, we can absolutely precisely say that Comet Elenin and asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass by one another and it will not even be noticeable!

spaceobs.org...

One of the most touted predictions is that Elenin, or something close behind, has some kind of large gravity field, capable of causing mischief to our planet when it passes, but:

As you know, May 21 was the closest approach of Comet C/2010 X1 to asteroid 1999 RQ176; the objects passed all of 225,830 km from each other, more than 100 times closer than the minimum distance between Comet Elenin and asteroid 2005 YU55! After that encounter, new position measuments of the comet and asteroid 1999 RQ176 were obtained. On such a short timescale no influence was noted, which means it is practically nil. For that reason, we can absolutely precisely say that Comet Elenin and asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass by one another and it will not even be noticeable!

Notice how Mr. Elenin has observed Elenin and 1999 RQ176 pass substantially closer together than Elenin will with Earth AND HAD NO EFFECT! If it hasno effect on a mere asteroid, could we, in all seriousness, claim it would have an effect on Earth? Surely not.

So, we now know that Elenin will:

a) Not hit Earth
b) Does not effect even small bodies with any kind of gravity or magnetic force

Is there anything else? Oh, Nibiru! Surely the aforementioned asteroid would have been effected by a Brown Dwarf star?

Anyway! I apologise if I have unintentionally insulted anyone here with my comments! Just trying to spread the word! If anyone can debunk this, with evidence, please feel free! I kinda enjoyed the Elenin hype, but maybe we should put it to bed now?

CC

X

Honestly will this finally end the paranoia around this subject? Clearly this is about the strongest evidence you could present on the subject. Sadly I know people will still go on believing this pseudoscience and in no way will ever be convinced otherwise.

There's not nearly enough doom in this thread!



Ahhh. Much better.


This is good information but doesn't address some of the more insane theories about Elenin floating around on the internet. The doomspeak regarding Elenin shall continue.

I knew Elenin wasn't a Nibiru thing going on. Then I heard about the movie "Deep Impact" I'm not going to lie, I was like "what the hell" at all the crazy coincidences, especially since I hadn't seen the movie before. But this is good to know. Although, I'm sure people are still going to spread fear about it anyways. They like to get the "LuLz" from others fear and paranoia over the net.

It will not be put to bed until it has come and gone, as much as anyone may attempt. The latest is that it may be an ancient relic, an escape pod from long ago. They are saying humans may have come to earth using this pod.

A supposed insider was comparing elenin to astroid steins. Check out this link...

www.bibliotecapleyades.net...

I've gotten to the point that I don't know what's coming and I'm starting not to give a f**k. I'm tired of doom, sick of it all. And going to GLP lately is like going to a morgue. You just die a little inside

reply to post by CrazyCloud

Well, as of 2 days ago the NASA and JPL Data agree. Elenin will be no direct threat and Yu55 will pass us by.....with margins of error so small right now, a minor hiccup in the cosmic scheme of things will make for a different outcome. The only thing I'd say we know with 100% certainty is that Elenin is only 3-5 kilometers across (if officials are correct) and as such, even a direct 90 degree plunge into Earth wouldn't have dire global effects. Of course, I wouldn't want to be within a thousand miles of the impact. Even the data says it's unlikely though, just not impossible. I hope the public appreciates the importance of that distinction when it's top news out of nowhere.

Thanks to whoever had put up the impact simulator last week. It's been quite helpful in establishing for myself, anyway, that even a worst case scenario isn't nearly as bad as the alarmists would like to say. For anyone who missed the first post:

impact.ese.ic.ac.uk...

It's public reaction that I worry about. This should be interesting only because the Media and Government have all but acted like these don't exist or have no bearing whatsoever after touting things like the Halley's Comet pass for years in advance. I'm dying to see Carney explain the silence on this at the WH Press Room.. It's not nefarious, it's just plain stupidity and poor Government planning....but thats always good for entertainment. This one should be remarkable.

Some people have been saying for a while that Elenin is no threat and never have been, but some people will not listen. And they still won't listen even with what the OP has posted, because they doubt the existence of Leonid and they also think NASA is lying to them.

YU55 is the problem child. It's date of 'closest' approach is very insteresting.

st.

he seem to dodge the REAL questions though.

1.how do you explain the vast fleet of alien ships traveling with elenin?
2.what about the cloaked brown dwarf traveling with elenin and the aforementioned ships?
3.how come the mayans know about it?
4.what about the magical and sacred alignments it forges with planets that have been scientifically proven to zap earth with earthquake rays?
5.teh poleshift?

Originally posted by wingsfan
he seem to dodge the REAL questions though.

1.how do you explain the vast fleet of alien ships traveling with elenin?
2.what about the cloaked brown dwarf traveling with elenin and the aforementioned ships?
3.how come the mayans know about it?
4.what about the magical and sacred alignments it forges with planets that have been scientifically proven to zap earth with earthquake rays?
5.teh poleshift?

Im with you. And further more..as much symbolism going on with the elite and the coincidences of his name alone...loe nid. And nine ele...elenin.... and all the lies being spoon fed to us...i pretty much need to see a birth certificate now just to know he is who he says he really is...then maybe ill be more inclined to to chalk it up to coincidence but thats just me..

Mr. Elenin also said that the coma was 200,000kilometers across, was this also the truth?



Summary, he uses his telescope to find Elenin. The star it is near is there, but no comet.
P.S. if you're inclined not to watch a long video because it might be bad astronomy, please don't watch it.

I know this is slightly off the flow of things, but when is the best time to see the Honda comet in Memphis, Tn.?

I posted this info to the Russian thread, but I thought I'd also post it here, too. I hope nobody minds the redundancy, but I was really hoping to get a scientific opinion about what is being depicted.

I found this picture just now and found it to be quite interesting.
It's a photo of the mural in the Virginia Air and Space Center .
It's called "Solar System" and was painted by Sam Welty.
www.angelfire.com...

The part that caught my attention is that it shows a comet approaching the sun and seemingly causing a solar flare. You can see Earth in the distance and the curvature of the coma makes it seem as though it's heading towards our planet.

What does everyone else think about this? Does anyone notice anything else about the mural that we should take note of?

reply to post by KSprepared


Can you please provide a summary? I don't want to spend 12 minutes watching a video that is just going to end up being bad astronomy.

I never have and still don't think Elenin will hit us. I am up in the air with it as well because I cannot assume something about something I don't know enough about.

However, even with him saying these things, I still am a harder converter to believe there is an absolute 0 chance of nothing happening. Thats just how I am though, when it passes and nothing happens, we will all have nice pictures from space of Elenin.

Ah yes, the arm chair astronomer who was lucky enough to log onto the planetarium web site and view an image of something headed are way, now give us his "professional opinion?"
And the concurring response will be from

with a crass sophomoric rebuttal by

And the fodder spraying continues.
We will all just wait and see (or read my next thread on Elenin ).

reply to post by CrazyCloud


Sensible thread which i have starred and flagged
hopefully the insanity will end with this thread .

Thank you for posting it.

reply to post by Violater1


I'd be interested in your opinion of the mural, too.
If you'd be so kind to offer it and not wait for the "professionals".

This is an excerpt from a multi-part article I wrote for another website. For what it's worth, I've laid in supplies and such to prepare for possible stupidity from the general public and the outside chance we get sideswiped with debris or something more, but I'm nowhere near the point of clearing my savings or taking other rash (and foolish) steps like that. The objects passing us in succession over the coming months are things to be aware of, not freak out over. Even worst case is perfectly reasonable to handle and look back on years from now if people don't get stupid about things.

Note: The numbers and data here either came directly from or have been checked against NASA, the Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena, Ca or Naval Observatory data. Whenever possible I located and verified numbers through other sources, but the above are what I considered the bare minimum for my own level of satisfaction to accuracy. I last checked data 48 hours ago.... Forgive the lack of more recent checks but I needed a break after swimming in this subject night and day. Oh one final note...If somewhere in all this I missed a typo, blame me for a wacky number I failed to catch and correct, not JPL.

II. The Players
*****
Name: Elenin. Official Designation: C/2010 X1 Discovered: Dec 10, 2010
Class: E Comet (Long Period)
Size: Very rough estimates at 3-5 Kilometers in Diameter
Most recent Coma measurements: 200,000 Kilometers
Unknown Tail Length - Estimates from 10-19 million miles.
Unknown Speed - Estimates are all over the place and make no sense
Composition - Unknown - Thought to be Ice Comet but behavior creates uncertainty
Dates of closest pass: Oct 16-17. Distance: .234/.233AU at -6.7 Degrees from Earth Orbital Plane
Earth Enters Debris Field: Nov 2-6
-Note: I find this piece of trivia to be interesting, but irrelevant. However, the RA/DEC of Elenin at around the point of closest path is 9 11 in the JPL charts. This number sequence isn't one I found anywhere else. That just means I didn't see it again on other objects, not that it's unique. They just happened to jump '11' in the 9- sequence of RA/DEC numbers for viewing on others I looked at.
*****

Name: YU-55. Official Designation: 2005YU55 Discovered: Dec 28 2005
Class: Apollo Asteroid
Size: 400 Meters in Diameter =/- 25ft.
No Coma, YU55 has an Asteroid Designation
Speed: Not Listed
Composition: Believed to be rock, nothing unusual
Dates of closest pass: Nov 8-9 2011. Distance: .0027/.0016 respectively. Degree off plane not listed.
-Note: The above distances are AU. For those interested, the latest figures I read put it at 324,000 Kilometers from Earth on Nov 8 and 239,000 Kilometers from the moon on Nov 9. All are estimates that are changing.
*****

Name: Honda. Official Designation: 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova Discovered: Dec 3, 1948
Class: Jupiter-Family Comet
Size: 1.6 Kilometers in Diameter
Coma: Compressed and Tight - No diameter estimate available yet.
Tail: Described as stubby and short - Estimates vary on length
Composition: Believed to be Ice Comet
Dates of Closest Pass: Aug 15, 2011. Distance: 0.0600AU at 82 degrees off orbital plane
Date of Outbound Pass: Sep 2, 2011. Distance: 0.2388AU at 15.36 Degrees off orbital plane
- Note: Honda has passed Earth 11 times in the last 100 years. This is the closest it's been or is predicted to be within current projected timelines.
*****

Name: Levy. Official Designation: P/2006 T1 (Levy) Discovered: Oct 2, 2006
Class: Jupiter-Family Comet
Size: Unknown - Previous Coma observations between 90,000 and 200,000 kilometers
Coma: See Above
Tail: No solid numbers at this time
Date of Closest Pass: Jan 21, 2011 - Distance: 0.183AU at 35 degrees off orbital plane
-Note: This object has little data compared to others. JPL and NASA don't seem to have reliable size figures for the comet itself.
*****

Name: Apophis. Official Designation: Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Discovered: June 19, 2004
Class: Atena Asteroid
Size: 0.27 Kilometers
Coma/Tail: N/A
Date of Closest Pass: Jan 12, 2012 - Distance 0.612AU at 5 degrees off orbital plane
Date of plane transition: Oct 19 2011 - 1.08 AU - Transition from Neg to Pos plane positions
-Note: As mentioned before, Apophis is just giving us a small hello and look at it. It will be back in 2029 and 2036. Some estimates have it impacting, some have it just kissing our atmosphere. Either way, these dates are the next ones people will focus on after this period passes.

III. Events

Okay, the next 2-3 months will be very interesting. I want to say exciting, but like that scene in Independence Day, I don't think exciting would be appropriate. Here is a basic list of events to start with.

August 15, 2011 - Honda Passes - 8.9 Million Kilometers
*
August 3, 2011 - Elenin Crosses Earth Orbital line - Inbound to Sun
August 17, 2011 - Elenin Crosses Earth Orbital Plane - Pos to Neg
*
Sept 2, 2011 - Honda Passes Outbound - .0265AU at 15 Degrees
*
Sept 11, 2011 - Elenin opposite side of sun and aligned w/ Earth
Sept 16-20, 2011 - Elenin Reaches Brightest Magnitude
Oct 16-17, 2011 - Elenin Passes Earth - .233AU - .150AU (estimated) at 6.7 Degrees
- Note: The above distance min. varies from object data set above to show the inner range of current estimates.
*
Oct 19, 2011 - Apophis Crosses Earth Orbital Plane - 1.08AU
*
Nov 2-6, 2011 - Earth Enters Elenin Tail and Debris Field
(Earth - Mercury - Venus align)
*
Nov 8, 2011 23:28 UT - YU55 Passes Earth - .0027AU (324,000k)
Nov 9, 2011 07:13 UT - YU55 Passes Luna - .00160AU (239,000k)
Nov 9, 2011 - Levy Passes Earth - .5228AU (78 Million k)
*
Jan 12, 2012 - Apophis Passes Earth - .612AU (91 Million k)
Jan 21, 2012 - Earth and Levy Pass - .183AU at 35 Degrees relative to orbital plane

I hope this helps someone a bit... HARD DATA seems to be something very lacking in most of what people are posting right now.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Hey,

Thank you for the data! As an amature astronomer I am pretty keyed up for the next few months, hopefully there should be some great opportunities for meteor and comet watching.

Thanks!

CC