Originally posted by Aim64C
reply to post by peck420
A conflict between China and India is plausible.
However - the J-20 does not appear to be designed as an air superiority fighter. Its overall design seems to imply a strike role. China has yet to
really produce their own air superiority fighter from concept to production - and I don't see that they have attempted to in the design of the
J-20.
Yea we Indians keep trying to do the math on that, and see how the J-20 would be operationally relevant in a conflict with us.With not much publicly
available info on the J-20 that is hard, but as you say it does look like an interdiction deep strike fighter-bomber.
If you try to make sense of how that would be helpful against India in a conflict on the borders they share: perhaps taking out forward airfields, or
getting lucky with an AWACS or two. Does not seem to have the range to take out strategic airbases deep within India, that house AWACS, CnC etc.
especially because it will not be launched from bases close to the Indian border for its own safety in the fear that the Indians may also look at deep
strike poaching (damn those Jaguars fly low!), or picking off a J-20 (low on fuel and not enough stamina to engage enemy aircraft) or two returning
from a particularly heart-piercing and successful deep strike mission.
The J-20 could be used to neutralize permanent Indian military assets (Naval air stations etc.) in the Bay of Bengal: launching from southwest China
and flying over Thailand/Burma. This seems to be a very effective strategy because the lead in and lead out paths would mostly be unchallenged until
the last 100-200 miles.
And then there's then bit about carrier killing; an opportunistic strike on an Indian carrier loitering in the Bay of Bengal, would be worth its
risk.
All this is theorized keeping presuming that stealth aircraft in this kind of conflict do not aggressively hunt out their counterparts; they're
meant as means to hurt quick and hurt deep. Think of it as a turn-based thing rather than a real-time thing . for these countries, such a/c may be
too valuable to toss up in a fight where they may even fall prey to inferior missile-cart a/c.
But enough of this fantasy; unless quite literally forced to do so, the Chinese will not prefer to deploy the J-20 for operations against India. It
seems to be 'lovingly' meant for friends in the RIMPAC/PACRIM: again as I mentioned before: permanent naval assets, carriers etc etc.
What it all boils down to is that the PAK-FA would, more than likely, overwhelm the J-20, but China would have an edge in naval conflicts against
India that were not within range of PAK-FA air superiority. China is taking the high road on their own, and India is partnering a lot of new
development with Russia - which is going to pay off for them in the long-run.
Well I'd like to respectfully disagree. China cannot 'directly' project any substantial naval capability in the Indian Ocean Region that would be
threaten the semi blue-water Indian Naval presence there. Similarly, India cannot do the same in the Pacific or South China Sea because it is not a
full fledged blue water navy. Now note that when it comes to SSNs and SSBNs China did have the lead for a good number of years and still sort of does
now:
a indefinitely lurking PLAN SSN and/or SSBN in the IOR would be quite vexing for the Indian Navy who's ASW capabilities are not like that of the US.
However, with the induction of indigenous SSNs, and russian-leased Akula SSNs into the Indian Navy; that gap will close in the near future (2-3
years).
Again, nothing to do with aircraft so I will not elaborate here
Although it really has yet to be seen what Russia's response to a Chinese-Indian conflict would be (or America's, for that matter). It's unlikely
the two countries would be going at it, alone, for very long - a conflict between those two would trigger another World War, more than likely - or
trigger a number of peripheral wars following the collapse of both countries' labor outsourcing.
Interestingly, Russia's response would very much depend on America's response in such a conflict. India is at better terms with Russia and America
than is China at this point in time. I do not see that changing. I wager both would mostly try to sit out and a negotiate for a end to hostilities,
while covertly probing weaknesses of the Chinese who could be a potential foe to both of them.
Honestly, I would be interested in seeing what Russia and/or India's export options may be on the T-50/PAK-FA - were I a Private Defense Contractor
with the financial capability - a couple of these aircraft would be bad-ass in a mercenary squadron.
I'm sure the T-50 will not be sold to any random mercenaries. But with 1000 planned, and Russia/India currently taking only half of that amount, its
interesting to see who the other buyers could be:
Here's my list in most probable order (Assuming the F-22 never flies in any other colors except red, white n blue):
Brazil
Somebody in South East Asia
South Africa
France
Australia
Japan
Israel OR its foe(s) in the Middle East