posted on Aug, 15 2011 @ 02:31 PM
I fear there is going to be a bang, not a nuclear bang but a big bang all the same.
Once the rebels make a push into Tripoli, this civil war is going to get bloody quickly, the air support of the west is going to be useless, and the
rebels will be up against the most loyal of Gaddafi supporters. The result is going to be a blood bath, in the end Gaddafi I think will lose, but he
will put up one hell of a fight, I would not be surprised is as a last stand he starts using his stalk pile of mustard gas on his own people.
The truth is that any speculation about how this saga in Libya is going to play out, is just that, speculation. We can all sit here like armchair
generals and make out educated guesses about what is going to or not going to happen but we won’t really know until TSHTF in Tripoli. Anything
could happen, it could be possible that in the massacre that follows the rebels moves into Tripoli that the international community is going to be
forced to respond with troops and tanks on the ground. How this happens is anyone’s guess. But here is my assessment of how I assume this might
First off the rebels with the assistance of western air support are going to have to fight closer to Tripoli, assuming that they have achieved this
goal their next is to take control of Tripoli.
There are already a plethora of western military advisors to the National Transitional Council (NTC) then there are the spooks and other advisors with
them, any move on Tripoli is going to be coordinated. I would guess that the most of the work is going to be done by the non-American NATO members of
Operation Unified Protector most probably with the deployment of UK and French Special Forces alongside a smaller contingent of American Special
Forces and Intelligence individuals. Prior to any move by the rebels these NATO forces will begin the classical Special Forces raids. This is after
all the SAS’s home turf, clandestine operations behind enemy lines in Africa is what they were made for. Targets may include communication command
infrastructures, sabotaging supply lines, gathering intelligence, possibly also conducting assassinations of military officers and so on.
In addition to this a massive air bombardment of all military instillations in and around Tripoli in the nights leading up to the final push to take
the city. Again most probably directed by Special Forces on the ground either inside Tripoli itself of very close by. At the same time, the rebels
will be beginning to surround Tripoli taking out any small military outposts in their way, until they eventually have Tripoli surrounded cutting off
anything going in or out. At this point world leaders will do the photo opp stuff and go on about a peaceful resolution (while the bomb the living
crap out of the country) and give Gaddafi one last chance.
At which point he is going to raise his middle figure to the west and things are going to get ugly, he’s going to already be fighting with the
rebels encircling his city but he’s probably going to start playing dirty. I would guess that the first move he will make is to mobilise the
people of Tripoli forcing them to fight if he can and adopt guerrilla tactics. Shortly before the rebels move in he’s going to start with the
Mustard Gas possibly at this point.
When the Rebels do go in they will have no western support, the risk of a helicopter getting shot down is too great as is the risk of blue on blue.
This is going to result in a massive blood bath, thousands will be killed. At some point, the city is going to fall, and a hunt will begin to find
Gaddafi as I would imagine he will go into hiding or possibly kill himself in a defiant final stand.
By then end of all of this the TNC will now establish their rule of their entire country, invite western companies to help rebuild the country and
finish off any resistance that is left behind.
Sivio Berlusconi will land in Tripoli and return to Italy with his now body guards he has liberated form Gaddafi.
That’s just my guess could be totally wrong and Gaddafi will kill himself tomorrow.