posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 02:43 AM
My take on this is that it is related to how deeply the 2008 depression cut into people. Consumer spending fell off a cliff and people were buying
everything they could find at dollar and thrift stores to save a buck. They cut as deeply into their spending as they could for as long as they
could. The past year or so, I simply don't think there's any way that people who went into spendthrift mode on 2008 can cut any deeper. Also, and
this is likely a VERY large component of this, gasoline is counted in "Retail Spending" these days. I noticed that while reading an article about
how consumer spending went up in July last week. I don't recall when they started counting that in retail spending, but I distinctly do not remember
it being counted as such before. Thus, as gas prices skyrocket, consumer confidence declines, but retail spending goes up (most people can only cut
so much from their gas consumption) which leads to the disconnect.
It is very much akin to the whole "discouraged workers" suddenly not being counted among the unemployed shenangians Clinton signed into law back in
the 90s. The longer a recession hoes on, the more workers expire their uneployment, and the better the unemployment rate starts to look... it's a
big shell game.