States partisan trends under Obama

Today Gallup polling released its 2011 state partisanship and with the information provided I decided to analyze the partisan trends of the individual states since 2008. Using this for data of 2008, 2009, and 2010 state partisanship I was able to chart the partisan trends of each state. Below are my results.

*Trend: Political trend simply means in 2008 Republicans were down 13% nationally but in 2009 they were down 10% nationally, so I take that positive 3% change for the Republicans then use data for an individual state, for example Georgia, and see that in 2008 Republicans were down 3% and 2009 they were down 4% so that is a 1% drop for Republicans. Compare that to the national change, +3%, and you get a trend of -4%.*

2008-2011 state partisan trend for Republicans:

Alabama | +3%
Alaska | 0%
Arizona | -7%
Arkansas | +5%
California | -3%
Colorado | +1%
Connecticut | -2%
Delaware | 0%
District of Columbia | -2%
Florida | -3%
Georgia | -8%
Hawaii | +1%
Idaho | +5%
Illinois | 0%
Indiana | +3%
Iowa | +6%
Kansas | +5%
Kentucky | -2%
Louisiana | +7%
Maine | +4%
Maryland | -5%
Massachusetts | +5%
Michigan | +2%
Minnesota | -3%
Mississippi | -8%
Missouri | +4%
Montana | +5%
Nebraska | -1%
Nevada | -3%
New Hampshire | +11%
New Jersey | -1%
New Mexico | +1%
New York | -2%
North Carolina | -3%
North Dakota | +10%
Ohio | +6%
Oklahoma | +3%
Oregon | +4%
Pennsylvania | +1%
Rhode Island | +11%
South Carolina | +1%
South Dakota | 0%
Tennessee | +2%
Texas | -1%
Utah | 0%
Vermont | +7%
Virginia | 0%
Washington | 0%
West Virginia | +3%
Wisconsin | +3%
Wyoming | -2%

If these trends continue for another few years Democrats risk making their New England strongholds competitive and turning the Rust Belt over to Republicans entirely. Same can be said to the Republicans with parts of the Southeast, often termed the ‘New South’, where Republicans are losing their edge over Democrats and across the Upper Plains states (excluding North Dakota).

Dark Blue = Trending Most Democratic, Blue = Trending Democratic, Light Blue = Trending Slightly Democratic
Dark Red = Trending Most Republican, Red = Trending Republican, Light Red = Trending Slightly Republican
Purple = No Trend

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/20f570941648.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by Misoir


That map is breathtaking. Reagan didn't get numbers/projections close to this before he walked into the nomination and took one of the single largest landslide election wins in American history. Obama's bird is cooked. I hope he does enjoy the last half of his term. It looks as though his "base" is about the only thing left for him, and he's actually managed to infuriate even THOSE people not once, but several times. Oh what a guy.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


On his watch the Democrats went from a 13 point partisan affiliation among Americans in 2008 to just 4 points in the first half of 2011. This does not necessarily mean he will lose in 2012; his poll numbers are a little different than partisan affiliation.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

What it does indicate is that Americans are just as Republican in the first half of 2011 as they were in 2010, which is definitely not good for the Democratic Party, but what this also shows is where Republicans are strengthening and where Democrats are. Take a good look at the map, notice some of the Republican strongest gains are being made in New England, the Western side of the Mississippi river, and the rust belt. Democrats however are gaining in many states, as you can see.

Breaking it down into regions you get:

Trending Republican/Trending Democrat (Non-trending states excluded)

Northeast | 6 / 4 (excluding DC)
South | 7 / 6
Midwest | 8 / 2
West | 6 / 4

Breaking it down into sub-regions you get:

New England | 5 / 1
Mid-Atlantic | 1 / 3
South Atlantic | 2 / 3
South Central | 5 / 3
Great Lakes | 4 / 0
North Central | 4 / 2
Mountain | 4 / 3
Pacific | 2 / 1

Giving my thread a bump so that more people have the chance to view it.

One last bump.