2011 Global Stock Market Collapse Watch

reply to post by Crakeur


Gold way overvalued?! I have to disagree. I have heard that it is a bubble when it passed 800. 1000. 1200, 1400, 1600, and now again. It is not a bubble.

Gold has only begun to run. There will be pull backs undoubtedly as in any bull market. It may even fall to 1400(less likely after the past ten days of world market crashing), but the long term is rosy.

The fundamental policies of International central banks seem unlikely to change. The more they destroy the currencies the more investors of all sizes will move to any steady asset.

Central banks have been increasing gold holdings over the past years. Remember India in 2009?
Thailand's central bank increased their holdings by 15 percent in the last two months, and South Korea 17 percent in the same time. [url=http://www.businessinsider.com/sharp-increase-in-central-bank-gold-reserves--south-korea-up-17-fold-and-thailand-155-in-2-months-2011-8]Link[/url ]

The ETFs SLV and GLD now hold(in theory) tremendous amounts of physical bullion. Everyone from hedge funds to retail investors have fueled their meteoric rise.

In a normal healthy environment gold appear a bubble. We are in uncharted territory. We are in the greatest depression, and all traditional assumptions are gone.

reply to post by majesticgent


unless you are an insider, you'd have to be very ballsy to swim in this pool. you have to be able to devote your time to watching the stocks move because the swings are fast and if you blink you might miss the opportunity. truth is, if you can sit and stare at the stocks and you have the stones, as well as a cash roll you are willing to lose, you can probably make out ok.

I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole but that's because I personally believe that the game is rigged and that wall street is merely another casino in which the odds are weighted such that, even when I win, I'm going to lose.

reply to post by stephinrazin


gold is over valued because a large percentage of buyers do so because they think that, in the event of a global economic collapse, their gold will be the only real form of currency (thanks to folks like Jones). This couldn't be farther from the truth. If we ever reach that point, bullets will be more valuable than gold.

FTSE to drop below 5000 at close?

Very very important number.

Well as far as "sentiment" and Mood goes.

certainly hope not.

3500 by friday if so?

Not looking at all good in any way.

Many seen me screaming about this for years on ATS well before 08.

Still however not suprised but think this might be the week.

Batton down the hatches guys.

Elf

Originally posted by stephinrazin
reply to post by Crakeur

 

In a normal healthy environment gold appear a bubble. We are in uncharted territory. We are in the greatest depression, and all traditional assumptions are gone.

Can we assume that if this keeps up that when Asia opens tomorrow it'll be a massive sell off again, then in Europe another massive sell off. The ECB will step in again to quell investors, then a steady decline in the US?

reply to post by Crakeur


Some people are very ballsy if it means them possibly gaining a 5% or greater return on their investment. They are people who like risk and love to gamble, but yeah I'm not investing anymore outside of my FTE's and Mutual Funds which reinvest the dividends. I'm just looking out for a point where I need to make amends to protect my wife and I. could be this year, 5 years from now, or 50 years from now. I'm leaning towards the middle keeping a cool head and being watchful.

reply to post by Crakeur

Originally posted by Crakeur
reply to post by stephinrazin

 

gold is over valued because a large percentage of buyers do so because they think that, in the event of a global economic collapse, their gold will be the only real form of currency (thanks to folks like Jones). This couldn't be farther from the truth. If we ever reach that point, bullets will be more valuable than gold.

Exactly. We can't eat, or drink gold. and if you decide to use it to barter with, you will need a small army or contingent to protect your stash of it.

reply to post by Crakeur


I hear this argument often. I am not planning for the break down of society. Gold is an investment instrument. In the end of days guns and food are all that matters. In a declining empire where the currency is devalued gold is very useful. I can decide to stock up, and wait for the end. Instead, I will live normally with emergency ammo and food in case of a breakdown. Gold could hit 3200 or 5000 before there is a real danger of societal chaos. Why sit on dollars while you wait?

The markets are in a yo-yo pattern. Get close to 11k then rallies. Then sell. Both the Dow and NSDQ are rallying right now. Wonder what just happened? Did the FED announce QE3?

reply to post by stephinrazin


like I said, a large percent of the investors in gold believe it to be an end times currency. Not everyone.

I also don't think we'll come to that scenario in my lifetime so the chance for gold to rise further is likely but, as a I said, I think it's way over valued and folks buying and holding now, with the idea that, when doomsday comes, they'll be loaded, will be in for a big surprise because, at some point, gold will come back down to reality and the folks buying and holding now will be the ones who get burned the most.

If I were a gold investor, I'd have taken my cost out of the equation so that the holdings were just profits. That way, if it does come down, I don't risk anything other than opportunity cost.

reply to post by Crakeur


Gold's fine, I prefer Arable land. I'd sooner have the ability to grow crops and eat something than starve walking like a nomad down a dusty street with a sack of gold slung over my shoulder... that is if the age of gamers youth hadn't already taken my golds and dwelling, left me in a ditch someplace.

A collapse in this day and age is going to be so bad you have no idea. Generally speaking, city folk are country dumb and if things stop moving or store shelves go bare for any reason city folk generally turn feral.

The market, I called 5% down on the DOW today. Asia will take an even bigger hit tomorrow and the DAX and FTSE will probably be down around 4-5% as well... Just my guess.

www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com...

Apparently Obama is going to give an announcement/speech is a few hours.

2nd

Market Update Add to My Yahoo! Set Alert 11:30 am : News that analysts at Moody's have reiterated their AAA rating for the U.S. has helped lift stocks off of their session lows.

Source

I still think cash is king right now, if you're not day trading.

I agree with Crakeur entirely,
He much more experience than me, however I too, we both have actual working experience of this, know the territory, have the letters to use after names, done the deals etc.

I think there is a lot of "sentiment" still in gold, and lots of spin now to and upselling.

It could go to 5k even esp if World War looms within days, maybe spike twice that.

HOWEVER steer clear unless you actually have it not the paper type, or can afford to treat it as a "Red" or "Black" bet on Roulette 50/50 chance loose all (if buying at todays or higher prices) or double it.

Who though of the average investors, will be watching the tickers though if there is more value in gold to be able to sell at the right time?

Or be able to get their physical stuff to the local market/trader, and he will give you yesterdays "spot" price and maybe even for "scrap" value spot (lower)

What normal person can play this in physical form to keep safe of the overselling of paper gold in recent years? and yet be tuned into the price 12 hours a day until the next world war or big event to take the prize, or get out before they get burnt?

I wouldn't buy Gold now due to the above, and the same as I wouldn't buy Apple shares now, or would not buy property in the UK US Dubai etc

Much in life, and esp in finance and markets is "timing"

Great 1 yr and before.

Thinking of gold now?

Missed the party.

1600 plus and ounce? about there ish

What would 1 oz of gold get you in a shtf scenario?

What are you going to do if the government takes it off you? (research the last great depression in America Peoples safety Deposit boxes opened and emptied by Government)

How many of you family can have waterproof and Good Quality Footwear?Hiking Boots?

How much is a 14 day activity training to camp, survive cost, about the same?

How many of the following could you get?

Water Purifier
Books
Medical Drugs
Clothing
Food
Training Courses
Hunting/Fishing Gear
Tents
Generators/Solar etc
Mechanic Courses
First Aid Courses
Wind up radios Torches
Land to grow Food

Etc

Which will be of real value if Money and stocks and shares hit 1930's scenario?

Its more what you can do, than bling.

What can help you stay warm dry well safe fed

Not something looking nice and needed in electronics no one is making, and jewellery again not being made as no one has money to pay for them.

If risk is not a big problem and time not to, fine get it if can loose most of its value, and happy to sit on it for 20-30 years just as a "Punt" waiting for the right time, and when it suits you not the market.

Gold will become as valuable as American Bonds again in the near future imho.

Perception is its price.

Dont bet your and families loved ones future, ability to eat, stay warm safe and happy in the Moods and sentiments of Vastly Rich Traders, who have taken it from us already!

Unless your the kind who put there hand in the fire second time as a kid.

(I am only giving my personal opinions above, I strongly advise you against anyone taking any actions or plans on their financial situation based on anything I have said, and to research themselves, and take INDEPENDENT professional advice, before choosing whats in their and their loved ones best interests)

Kind Regards,

Elf

edit to add OBAMA to make Statement in US at 18.00GMT on Economy. Looks like about 3.49% down close on FTSE stayed above 5000 only 60 -70 basis points when below 5000 2morrow is a big factor in Mood only. DOW below 10000 wed/thurs?

Originally posted by Trolloks
Apparently Obama is going to give an announcement/speech is a few hours.

2nd

Got a link or any other info on this?

Wonder what he's going to come out with next...

I'm sure the Obama speech + the Moody's backing of the AAA rating caused that uptick right before the markets went on break. Wonder what the POTUS will have to say on the economy besides the obvious?

Originally posted by Curio

Originally posted by Trolloks
Apparently Obama is going to give an announcement/speech is a few hours.

2nd

Got a link or any other info on this?

CNN is running it. He is supposed to reassure everyone on the economy.

www.cnn.com...

Should be interesting - the Oval Office has no doubt been working all weekend on this. They must have come up with something they feel will give the economy a boost. Maybe they're actually going to do something decisive for once!

EDIT: Just read the above CNN link.......just going to be more "everything is fine" talk

reply to post by majesticgent


A little music while we watch....



Cosmic...

reply to post by Curio


I have a feeling that will be it too. Maybe that will be enough to stop a plunge and keep it stable for now. Unless they really worked up something really well to make people change, like announcing QE3?