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Originally posted by topdog30
If I remember correctly, we all had knowledge of this $1billion bet prior to the downgrade right? I think there was a thread on here and other sources as well. If that was the case, we all could have participated and taken advantage of the heads up. I don’t feel there was any insider trading going on. This downgrade was talked about long before it happened and some people could see the writing on the wall and placed a bet. Good for them. Wish I would have placed mine. Next time someone makes a bet like that I'll be right behind them.
August 26, 2007
$4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks
Anybody have a clue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?
The two sales are being referred to by market traders as "bin Laden trades" because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these short-sell options valuable.
There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points away from current value. No one would buy that deep "in the money" calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seen before.
The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!
Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.
This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes right, the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of pocket costs for buying these options will exceed $700 Million!!! The entity who sold these contracts can only make money if the stock market totally crashes by the third week in September.
Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusual stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks of September 11.
Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks.
Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened.
The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in September, seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is in the works and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."
Originally posted by LexiconV
Originally posted by topdog30
If I remember correctly, we all had knowledge of this $1billion bet prior to the downgrade right? I think there was a thread on here and other sources as well. If that was the case, we all could have participated and taken advantage of the heads up. I don’t feel there was any insider trading going on. This downgrade was talked about long before it happened and some people could see the writing on the wall and placed a bet. Good for them. Wish I would have placed mine. Next time someone makes a bet like that I'll be right behind them.
Yep we sure did. Its been over due for years. The person who placed the Billion $ bet probably didn't even raise a sweat over losing it. Hardly chump change but if you have 50 Billion more and it was as obvious to them as it was to others, then why not. It was probably a dare... knowing some insanely rich people it was more of an ego trip or recognition of manhood. Others have to make do by swimming a crocodile infested river.
Originally posted by jam321
US should have placed a bet itself and used the money to pay on the debt.
I don't think we will find out who placed the bet.
Originally posted by xuenchen
(posted on Aug-07-2011 @ 09:56 PM)
and as we speak,
the Asian and Europe markets are way DOWN!
so are the Dow futures !
LOOK for a big Dow-Drop Monday!
some are predicting a 500 to 1000 point massacre !!!!!
yours truely,
Originally posted by xuenchen
reply to post by burntheships
I see we are on the same frequency !
who's next?
Originally posted by burntheships
Originally posted by xuenchen
reply to post by burntheships
I see we are on the same frequency !
who's next?
Love that pic!
Uh oh......
Obama to deliver statement at 1 p.m. EDT - NBC News
www.breakingnews.com...
Originally posted by User8911
What I don't understand is that, who makes the calculations about bets like this.
Originally posted by canselmi
Can anyone explain in layman's terms how the bettor stands to make a profit off the US downgrade?
Originally posted by Xcathdra
reply to post by burntheships
REspectfully you do realize the National Examiner is a tabloid magazine with questionable journalistic intent and ethics who have been called out before for sensationalism in reporting?
Are there any other sources carrying this story by chance?edit on 7-8-2011 by Xcathdra because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by burntheships
reply to post by Xcathdra
Hello,
You deny the U.S. lost its AAA rating?
Check the second link, and the related thread.
The futures bet was placed, check eft daily link
I have a hard time taking your post seriously, seriously.
edit on 7-8-2011 by burntheships because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by Xcathdra
reply to post by burntheships
Wow.. you completely misread that. I pointed out that the source you chose is not known for accurate reporting. I didnt question it, I simply asked if there were other sources covering the same story.
Quit jumping to conclusion when people ask a question.
Originally posted by burntheships
reply to post by Xcathdra
Address the issue, not the poster or the source.
How can you deny the reality of the downgrade?
Originally posted by canselmi
reply to post by burntheships
Was it a "bet" like a horse race? Someone puts money down that a certain event will take place (Horse #3 comes in first place) and it that happens, someone else pays him?
I don't think this is the case, but the way the articles are written, it implies that. Although I assume they are written that way just to use terms people are familiar with.
I assume that the "bettor" actually purchased something, that as a result of the downgrade, will end up being worth more. If this is the case, how does it end up being worth more?