$1 Billion Bet In July Of US Downgrade Brings Questions Of Insider Information

$1 Billion Bet In July Of US Downgrade Brings Questions Of Insider Information

www.examiner.com...

In late July, a mystery investor or hedge fund made a nearly $1 Billion bet that the US would lose their AAA+ credit rating, and on August 5th when S&P issued its downrade to AA+, that investor now stands to make a return of 1000%, and leads to serious questions of who the mystery trader is, and did they have insider information well before hand.

In 1992, George Soros nearly destroyed the British Pound, and made a profit of $1 Billion by betting agains the currency...

(visit the link for the full news article)


Related News Links:
etfdailynews.com...
Why has S&P downgraded the U.S?


Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Investors: The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against The United States

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
U.S. loses AAA credit rating from S&P

Someone, just two weeks ago was confident that the U.S. was going to lose its AAA credit rating.

Someone so completely confident that the U.S. was going to get the downgrade...and

this 'mystery investor' wagered 1 billion in the futures market against the U.S. keeping its AAA rating.

with a single push of a button someone was willing to commit more than $1 billion of real capital to this trade with expectations of a 10-to-1 return ratio. – etfdailynews.com...

We can speculate as to who the mystery trader is...
However, at this point we no longer speculate someone
wanted a trade on ASAP, and didn’t care about the ripples they would cause,
and now they stand to make 850 Million.

Names have been tossed around, we already know Soros was tied to Obama's 2008 election bid.

Just recently, Soros made public the move to divest his management fund of outside investors, and quietly go private. This move allows him to make trades and investments without being required to notify the SEC under the new Dodd-Frank act passed in Congress last year.

This had the hallmarks of one of the largest bond shops in the world knowing something the rest of the market didn’t.

The number of shops or even central banks that can take on this level of market risk is extremely small. Some that come to mind are hedge fund manager John Paulson, Bill Gross’s PIMCO, and the U.S. and Chinese central banks.

Thoughts ATS?

Any one want to take a wild bet as to who this mystery
trader is?


[url=http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/1-billion-bet-july-of-us-downgrade-brings-questions-of-insider-information]www.examiner.com[ /url]
(visit the link for the full news article)

First, I'll take George Soros for 20. He has a solid track record of short selling national currencies and building fortunes from the crash of national banks. I'm not sure I agree with insider information though. Even layman here were starting to predict this as a serious event within this fairly specific time frame as far back as mid June. I'm not sure it took anything more than paying attention to the signs in front of us all, then actually putting money down on it.

Already covered - www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul


This is a major development...
Put both legs firmly on the ground.

I'm a bit more skeptical of someone having inside information. I mean the S&P rating agency announced they were going to downgrade the US credit rating if we did not have at least 4 trillion in spending cuts. It became clear to me we probably were not myself sometime in the last two weeks. A credit downgrade was to be expected if S&P wasn't bluffing.

It became obvious to me that Obama and the democrats only want to raise taxes and put any decrease in the additional spending off in future years so any dramatic cuts that might hurt his current term in office does not happen. The tea party trying to get additional cuts in the rate of increased government spending was fought tooth and nail. I read certain government programs are set to get increased government spending of over 7 to 8 percent over the next 10 years. The tea party has been demonized by the incumbents in power as the rebellious new party in congress when their only crime has been trying to stop the status quo of non stop increased government spending.

I expected a downgrade too. However I wasn't certain if it would happen early last week or when it might happen. The real question to ask is if this big trade would have generated money for whoever made it even if the downgrade didn't happen? I don't know enough details. I suspect the downgrade was just icing on the cake for whomever made the trade and made a killing betting on stocks going down. However it may pay for investigators to dig into this to see if any insider trading went on.

Edit: I did not see the comment above that this topic was covered elsewhere until I posted.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
First, I'll take George Soros for 20.

He has a solid track record of short selling national currencies and building fortunes from the crash of national banks.

Soros is the likely candidate, I somehow think that the guys linked to the Federal Reserve
would not want to get caught with pants down like this.

Hopefully the SEC will investigate, although ....they could be a candidate as well.

So, you think it was a lucky guess huh?

reply to post by burntheships


REspectfully you do realize the National Examiner is a tabloid magazine with questionable journalistic intent and ethics who have been called out before for sensationalism in reporting?

Are there any other sources carrying this story by chance?

It could have been a hedge fund manager or someone who manages a private fund. It may not have been a single person so to speak, but someone who manages a large fund with private investors.
I wish I would have placed my wager as well, glad it worked out for whoever it was.

reply to post by Xcathdra


Hello,

You deny the U.S. lost its AAA rating?

Check the second link, and the related thread.

The futures bet was placed, check eft daily link

I have a hard time taking your post seriously, seriously.

Someone close to Soros, the bush family, or someone close to someone at S&P.

Originally posted by misfitofscience
Someone close to Soros, the bush family, or someone close to someone at S&P.

Perhaps someone close to the S&P, thats a good guess.

Going to check the news to find the first mention of a possible downgrade.

Be back soon.

US should have placed a bet itself and used the money to pay on the debt.

I don't think we will find out who placed the bet.

Originally posted by jam321
US should have placed a bet itself and used the money to pay on the debt.

I don't think we will find out who placed the bet.

Wouldnt it be ironic if we found it was someone near and dear to the heart of the matter.
I agree, its tricky, though with the volume of trades around the world each night,
its entirely possible they could bury it.

Although, somehow I think the bankstas are too greedy to do anything that would actually benefit
the United States. No, they would not bet for its future...only against it.

No insider information is needed. All that was needed was paying attention to reported news and some brass balls.

S&P made it very clear what needed to happen to avoid a downgrade - a minimum of 4 trillion in cuts over 10 years. Anyone that has paid any attention whatsoever to congress over the last 3 years should not have had any doubt that would never happen. I know I didn't.

All this person was really betting on was whether or not S&P would have the guts to follow through on the downgrade. Since they had publicly stated they would it would make the company look pretty bad to back down, but if there was ever a time they might this was it.

If they really are getting a 1000% return this was actually a no-brainer. The risk/reward for the downgrade to happen was a great gamble to make.

Insider trading?

Even I could see this coming a mile away. I would have sold short if I had of had any liquidity but all my
money was in silver....that went down....

Originally posted by proximo

All this person was really betting on was whether or not S&P would have the guts to follow through on the downgrade. Since they had publicly stated they would it would make the company look pretty bad to back down, but if there was ever a time they might this was it.

Ok, since we seem to be on the parrot run here, let me offer a jolt of reality.

This could be seen strictly as a political move by S&P unless they start to downgrade
other countries like France too. European Central Banks are holding lot worse crap than the
US Fed Reserve (Greek bonds anyone?), so they should get downgraded too.

And the list goes on - and on - and on -


And yes, the U.S. is what it is, but lets not stick our heads in the sand and ignore the truth
of the other currencies risks.

reply to post by whaaa


Well, hold on, I think you will recoup nicely.

Goldman hiked Its 12 Month Gold Price Target From $1,735 To $1,830.

Likely silver will move upwards. (this is not a reccomendation to buy or sell or hold)

reply to post by burntheships


Wow.. you completely misread that. I pointed out that the source you chose is not known for accurate reporting. I didnt question it, I simply asked if there were other sources covering the same story.

Quit jumping to conclusion when people ask a question.

reply to post by burntheships


Did you bother reading the armeggodon $1 bil trade thread you linked to? While a large order they only amounted to a very small % of the day's trades. They were also a pair of trades at different strike prices which indicates a spread of some sorts create dby buying one strike and selling the other. thus the greatest possible gain/ loss to either party (takes 2 to make a trade) was probably $1 per future plus or minus premiums paid. Thus each party has net long/short exposure of about $200,000 . Pocket change if you are managing several billion dollars. they probably do similar trades all day long. It's kind of like a $5 bet for a simple millionaire.

The trade was for block trades of 5,370 10-year Treasury futures executed at 124-03 and 3,100 Treasury bond futures executed at 125-01.

It is really no wonder we are in the shape we are in, when some of the most furious protesters, have no idea about which they are protesting. 95% of you are gullible as hell. get the facts Jack and then check back.