Shouldn't we have had a huge earthquake by now?

Originally posted by DJW001

The Duma article was from 1998. The Webb article was from 2004. The Mazzarella article was from 1998. The Myachina article was from 1971. You might not appreciate my characterization, but it was not inaccurate.

You obviously are not even reading the papers, the Duma research paper makes references to papers from 2002 and 2003, so how in the world can it be from 1998?

Duma, G., Ruzhin Y., Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations, XXVII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society EGS, Nice, France, 20-27 April 2002, Session NH10 (Abstracts); Natural Hazard and Earth System Science (2003) 3:171-177, European Geosciences Union

www.isfep.com...

That alone goes to show you are not even reading the papers, which again shows you are making strawman arguments.

I also added other papers, before your claim that they are all decades old, such as.

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, 02070, 2005
SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-02070
© European Geosciences Union 2005

Telluric currents add stress to seismoactive zones and
regulate earthquake activity

meetings.copernicus.org...

I also posted other papers including for 2010, showing how solar activity can affect natural disasters on Earth.

Originally posted by DJW001
The 2011 paper, which, you will note, supports my contention, was added after I made my admittedly rhetorical argument. You on the other hand have constantly claimed that I don't think the Sun has any effect on the Earth. That is not true; it is a strawman argument.

How in the world does the 2011 paper supports your contention? Nowhere does it say ANYTHING that would remotely support your contention in one bit. That paper states that anomalous readings were made in the atmosphere and ionosphere days before the earthquake occurred, and that they found a correlation between the atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and the Tohoku earthquake. That does not support your argument.

Originally posted by DJW001
But the premise of this thread is that the recent large CME should have caused Earthquakes. I have consistently affirmed that this should not be the case; that the changes in local magnetic fields are due to piezoelectric effects caused by changes in the lithosphere, not the other way around. As I have shown in my previous post, at least one of your sources supports that contention.

You might consistently affirm all you want, but your opinion alone is no proof of your claim. Again, do you not understand that there are several factors that infuence how the Earth is affected, such as the strength of the Earth's magnetic field during the period such events occur? Not to mention the fact that you seem to have expected a large seismic event, but what you failed to think through is that the cme could very well have affected seismic activity, not just causing one large event, but several medium events, including the eruption of Etna, and just like an earthquake can create aftershocks days and weeks after the main event, solar activity could also trigger aftershocks days and weeks after the main event.


Think of it similar to a tuning fork, which when hit, it would vibrate for a long time after it is struck, but the Earth being a larger "tuning fork" the effect of a solar flare, or other solar activity would cause it to have more aftershock events longer.

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 01705, 2006
SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU06-A-01705
© European Geosciences Union 2006
ULF energy transfer in the solar wind - magnetosphere- ionosphere - solid Earth system
R. Kessel, F. Freund, G. Duma
(1) Lab for Solar and Space Physics, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
20771 [[email protected], 301-286-1771 fax], (2) Department of Physics, San Jose
State University and Ecosystem Science and Technology, NASA Ames Research Center, MS
242-4, Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000, (3) Central Institute for Meteorology and
Geodynamics, Department of Geophysics, Hohe Warte 38, A-1190 Vienna, Austria

It is now possible to bring together recent, previously unknown, and amazing correlations
that have been shown to exist between different parts of the solar wind -
magnetosphere - ionosphere - solid Earth system, in particular with respect to earthquake
activity. There is strong evidence of electromagnetic processes responsible for earthquake triggering, that we study extensively.We will focus here on one correlation between power in solar wind compressional fluctuations and power in magnetospheric pulsations and ground H component fluctuations. The variation of the horizontal component H of the geomagnetic field is the crucial parameter in the Magneto-Seismic
Effect MSE to be discussed in a companion paper. The connection of earthquake activity
to possible solar or solar wind drivers is not well understood; many authors have
attempted correlations in the past with mixed results. We will use data from the S3C
Great Observatory and from ground-based magnetometer arrays to show long term
trends near solar minimum for ultra low frequency (ULF) fluctuations, specifically
the Pc5 (˜1 - 8 mHz) band. For the satellites we will also demonstrate the entry of
compressional Pc5 energy and waves at the dayside magnetopause, and the transport
through the magnetosphere for selected events in 2002. The ionosphere modulates
waves transmitted to the ground so we only compare the wave power and not the
waves themselves for the ground-based magnetometers. The role of ionospheric currents
will be highlighted in a companion paper.

www.cosis.net...

BTW, I know you are going to try to use another strawman argument and present as evidence that you are right the part in the above abstract that says

The connection of earthquake activity
to possible solar or solar wind drivers is not well understood

, but all it says is that the connection is not well understood, not that there is no connection, or that a correlation hasn't been noted by several scientists accross the world.

Originally posted by DJW001
I have absolutely no doubt that the Sun affects the Earth's weather, geo-magnetic field and other "systems." It is very likely that changes in the larger geo-magnetic field can cause changes in the telluric currents... but that does not cause earthquakes. That appears to be the fundamental difference between our points of view. I have no difficulty in agreeing to disagree about it. (All I know is that there was a huge CME and no notable earthquake.)

There have been several experiments which show that if you induce a current through rock formations it would affect the rock formation, and even crack it, which again a change in telluric current strength would affect rock formations and could also trigger earthquakes in the right place.

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, 02070, 2005
SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-02070
© European Geosciences Union 2005
Telluric currents add stress to seismoactive zones and regulate earthquake activity
G. Duma
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria
([email protected] / Fax: +43 1 3686621 / Phone: +43 1 36026-2503)

The presentation focuses on the induced telluric currents in the Earth’s lithosphere, in
three time domains, the daily, the seasonal and the long term range, and on their geodynamic
impact. The results obtained in an 8 year research programme at the Central
Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, and in several international
co-operations (e.g. Duma, 1996; Duma, Vilardo, 1998; Duma, Ruzhin, 2003),
provide a strong indication of a major trigger mechanism for earthquakes by forces
which originate from the telluric currents, according to the Lorentz law F = [I . B],
B being the magnetic field induction of the Earth’s main field. The corresponding
geophysical model reveals that the energy involved in this effect, named ‘Magneto-
Seismic Effect MSE’, is very high, comparable to tectonic deformation energy itself,
e.g. it is equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 4 earthquake, for an area of 200 km
times 200 km.
...

meetings.copernicus.org...

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


Ok, you win. You are by far more obsessed by this issue than I am. You continue to believe in the Electric Universe theory. There is clearly nothing I can say that will disabuse you of this belief. I enjoyed the debate as it has brought a subject I have not looked into for over twenty years back to my attention. Thank you for a debate based on actual research with a minimum of opinion and name calling. I look forward to debating you on other threads. As this thread seems to have served its purpose, I'm out of here. (And, again, there was a huge CME and no big earthquake... that's all this thread was about.)

BTW, if what you want in specific are peer-reviewed research that show a correlation between solar flares and earthquakes, here are a few.

Whether solar flares can trigger earthquakes?

Jain, R.

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2007, abstract #IN33A-03

We present the study of 682 earthquakes of ¡Ý4.0 magnitude observed during January 1991 to January 2007 in the light of solar flares observed by GOES and SOXS missions in order to explore the possibility of any association between solar flares and earthquakes. Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ý4.0. We classified the earthquake events with respect to their magnitude and further attempted to look for their correlation with GOES importance class and delay time. We found that with the increasing importance of flares the delay in the onset of earthquake reduces. The critical X-ray intensity of the flare to be associated with earthquake is found to be ~10-6 Watts/m2. On the other hand no clear evidence could be established that higher importance flares precede high magnitude earthquakes. Our detailed study of 50 earthquakes associated with solar flares observed by SOXS mission and other wavebands revealed many interesting results such as the location of the flare on the Sun and the delay time in the earthquake and its magnitude. We propose a model explaining the charged particles accelerated during the solar flare and released in the space that undergone further acceleration by interplanetary shocks and produce the ring current in the earths magnetosphere, which may enhance the process of tectonics plates motion abruptly at fault zones. It is further proposed that such sudden enhancement in the process of tectonic motion of plates in fault zones may increase abruptly the heat gradients on spatial (dT/dx) and temporal (dT/dt) scales responsible for earthquakes.

Keywords: 7526 Magnetic reconnection (2723, 7835)

adsabs.harvard.edu...

Not all solar flares can trigger earthquakes because other factors also influence whether an earthquake will occur, including the fact that not all solar flares are directed at Earth, or they can just graze Earth, etc, etc, but even the above study states that each earthquake they studied was preceded by a solar flare. (Again, remember that not only solar flares but other solar activity and other large events occurring in the Solar System, and outside the Solar System are also able to trigger earthquakes under the right circumstances.

Universality in solar flare, magnetic storm and earthquake dynamics
using Tsallis statistical mechanics
Georgios Balasis a,∗, Ioannis A. Daglis a, Anastasios Anastasiadis a,
Constantinos Papadimitriou b, Mioara Mandeac, Konstantinos Eftaxias b
a Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, Metaxa and Vasileos Pavlou, Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
b Section of Solid State Physics, Department of Physics, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 15784, Athens, Greece
c Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France

a b s t r a c t

The universal character of the dynamics of various extreme phenomena is an outstanding scientific challenge. We show that X-ray flux and Dst time series during powerful solar flares and intense magnetic storms, respectively, obey a nonextensive energy distribution function for earthquake dynamics with similar values for the Tsallis entropic index q. Thus, evidence for universality in solar flares, magnetic storms and earthquakes arise naturally in the framework of Tsallis statistical mechanics. The observed similarity suggests a common
approach to the interpretation of these diverse phenomena in terms of driving physical mechanisms that have the same character.
© 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
...
4. Discussion and conclusions
Herein, the principle of universality in solar flare, magnetic storm and earthquake dynamics is established. The
aforementioned similarity is quantitatively supported by the observation of power-law in the distribution of solar flare and magnetic storm energy related to a nonextensive Tsallis formalism that gives the Gutenberg–Richter law for the earthquake magnitude distribution as a special case.
The observed universal dynamics in solar flares, magnetic storms and earthquakes, on the basis of a nonextensive Tsallis energy distribution function with similar q indices (i.e., 1.82 for flares, 1.84 for storms and 1.6–1.71 for earthquakes), suggests a common approach to the interpretation of these phenomena in terms of driving physical mechanisms that have the same character. For instance, de Arcangelis et al. [6] suggested that magnetic stress transfer in the solar corona plays the role of elastic stress redistribution on the Earth’s crust. On the other hand, plasma pressure distribution in the inner magnetosphere is one of the key parameters for understanding the development of magnetic storms. Recently, Tsyganenko (33) demonstrated a dramatic increase of the plasma pressure profiles from quiet to disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Therefore, plasma pressure redistribution in the Earths magnetosphere could play the role of magnetic stress transfer in the solar corona and elastic stress redistribution on the Earths crust.
...

www.space.noa.gr...

Oh and btw DJ, M flares, which are the biggest ones we have had recently, are not large solar flares, they are medium sized. The large ones are X class flares.

Originally posted by DJW001
...
(And, again, there was a huge CME and no big earthquake... that's all this thread was about.)

Take care, but again an M class flare is not huge, it is a medium sized flare. A huge flare would be similar, or larger to the one that occurred on November 4th 2003 which luckily did not hit Earth.

It was in fact so huge that it saturated the X-ray detectors on the NOAA's GOES satellites. At first it was believed to be an X-28, to be later updated to be an X-45 flare. It was the largest ever recorded flare. That is a huge flare. An M flare is really nothing in comparison to that.

Oh and btw DJ, my contention is not based in belief, I presented evidence to support my arguments, you didn't. You presented only your opinion, strawman arguments, and you gave false conclusions based on misrepresentations of the papers I gave. If anyone's contention is based on belief, it seems apparent to be yours.

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