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Shouldn't we have had a huge earthquake by now?

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posted on Aug, 10 2011 @ 02:56 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


or you could use global warming instead as example. Carbon emissions do cause global warming but not just carbon emissions.




posted on Aug, 10 2011 @ 03:20 PM
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reply to post by thestupidguy
 

CO2 levels have risen as have global temperatures. You'll find many who will argue about which is the cause, which is the effect, or even if there is a relationship. While there is a correlation (both have shown an increase over the past 100 years) correlation does not imply causation.

But there is not even such correlation seen with solar (or geomagnetic) activity and earthquakes. Neither the frequency nor intensity of earthquakes follows the solar cycle.



posted on Aug, 10 2011 @ 05:03 PM
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CME nearly just makes it bit worst the main problem is the EMP, just like EMP makes protons energetic up there. The same basic rules apply into the magma layers as it slam into the ground. Not just simple do not forget about the polarities and what not ever else basic same rules apply with few added perhaps, Example takes bit longer for the particles to "relax". Not every EMP have effects with that added said not every EMP always has the same results. Like the EMP of yesterday changed our weather it seems as if you people had 3 flash floods and ever since yesterday, its cloudy and rainy weather this side of the world also just after the small EMP happened. Sounds like same method used to manipulate weather aswell.


The brunt of the explosion was not Earth directed. Nevertheless, radiation from the flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere,
spaceweather.com



posted on Aug, 12 2011 @ 01:31 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


You seem to forget time, and time again that just because there are peer-reviewed research that have found that FLUCTUATING solar activity, either up or down, can trigger earthquakes it doesn't meant that they refute each other.

You seem to forget, like always, that when the solar activity drops, and more so during sudden drops, the interplanetary field, which is the defense of the Solar system, drops allowing more radiation and other forms of energy to flow into the Solar System which in turn affects the dynamics of the entire Solar system and even Earth.

As a result when the Sun's activity drops the Earth is bombarded by energy that comes from sources outside the Solar System, but Phage here has claimed that this does not affect the Earth at all.

Yes Phage, either when the solar activity is up or down there is energy either from the Sun, or other sources outside the Solar System which affect the Earth, and have the ability even to trigger earthquakes on Earth and can also trigger other natural disasters.

Making your own flawed conclusions, from your own biased and flawed research does not refute what dozens of scientists have found.


There is a correlation found, and that is:


Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes

John F. Simpsona, b

a Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, USA

b University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, USA

Received 7 November 1967; revised 16 December 1967. Available online 28 October 2002.

Abstract

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.

linkinghub.elsevier.com...

Let's read that again...


Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes.



Let's put it this way. There are a lot of smokers out there, right? Do they all get cancer?.

Does it mean that because many smokers do not get cancer that cigarettes cannot cause cancer?

Apparently according to Phage, Chad and a few others just because there are smokers out there that do not get cancer they would claim that cigarettes can't cause cancer.


edit on 12-8-2011 by ElectricUniverse because: errors.



posted on Aug, 12 2011 @ 09:26 PM
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posted on Aug, 13 2011 @ 01:05 AM
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Originally posted by Forevever

actually

You'll live just as long if you drink or smoke




ok, even though that's just one research let me give another similar analogy then.


Would you say that eating a lot can cause overweight right? Aren't there a quite a few people that eat a lot, do not exercise yet do not get obese? That is because their metabolism is faster, they have genes that help them fight obesity etc.

There are many factors that contribute to whether a person can easily get obese or not, but does that mean that eating a lot cannot cause obesity?


Not even that research, if it really is a research and not something just made up, can refute the fact that eating a lot can cause obesity because all you have to do is look around when you go out.



edit on 13-8-2011 by ElectricUniverse because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 13 2011 @ 08:24 AM
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reply to post by ElectricUniverse
 



You seem to forget time, and time again that just because there are peer-reviewed research that have found that FLUCTUATING solar activity, either up or down, can trigger earthquakes it doesn't meant that they refute each other.


The papers you cite to bolster your opinion are all decades old. If solar observations were such a promising way of predicting earthquakes, why has there been no progress in the past forty years? Surely with that much study and all the technology now available, the Fukushima tragedy should have been avoided, right? The problem is, this "correlation" only works in reverse, doesn't it? If you take a large sampling of earthquakes and treat them as a single number, you can get them to jibe with another large sampling of solar data... but the "correlations" between them can be positive, negative or neutral, and vary from data set to data set. In other words, they are not actually correlations, but rather statistical artifacts; flukes, co-incidence. If a CME happens and there is any sort of tectonic activity, it's a "hit." If a CME happens and there is no major earthquake (the actual topic of this thread) it doesn't count.



posted on Aug, 13 2011 @ 10:30 PM
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Originally posted by Phage
CO2 levels have risen as have global temperatures. You'll find many who will argue about which is the cause, which is the effect, or even if there is a relationship. While there is a correlation (both have shown an increase over the past 100 years) correlation does not imply causation.

But there is not even such correlation seen with solar (or geomagnetic) activity and earthquakes. Neither the frequency nor intensity of earthquakes follows the solar cycle.


Yet you forget to mention that the Sun constitutes 99.8% of the total mass of the Solar System meanwhile CO2 constitutes only 0.038%-0.039% of Earth's atmosphere. Not to mention the fact that the Sun's activity has been increasing also at the same time as global temperatures on Earth, and not to mention the fact that every planet and Moon with an atmosphere in the Solar System has been experiencing dramatic Climate Changes in the form of warming at the same time that Earth has.

What is more probable that something which is 99.8% of all matter can affect the Earth, or something that is 0.038% - 0.039%?

Things that make you go humm...



posted on Aug, 13 2011 @ 11:06 PM
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Originally posted by DJW001

The papers you cite to bolster your opinion are all decades old. If solar observations were such a promising way of predicting earthquakes, why has there been no progress in the past forty years?
...


Wrong, I have cited several research papers, some which are old, and some which are new, including up to 2011.

I could also continue presenting more research where scientists have found a correlation between solar activity and earthquakes, such as.


New Concepts in Global 12 Tectonics Newsletter, no.47, June, 2008 SUN INDUCES SEMI-DIURNAL STRESSES ON EARTH’S SURFACE, WHICH TRIGGER
EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Vinayak G. Kolvankar
Seismology Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, Mumbai 400 085, India
Email: vkolvankar@yahoo.com Fax numbers : +9122 25505151, 25519613

Abstract: Various research workers have reported EM (electro-magnetic) emissions prior to the earthquakes or during earthquake sequences. In some cases these EM emissions were consistently found during certain hours of the day. These were found to be of diurnal and semidiurnal type. EM emissions of semi-diurnal type, spaced in the time domain from the local noontime, were observed in many examples prior to earthquakes/volcanic eruptions. Such emissions were also observed in a very wide frequency band from VLF (very low frequency) to Microwave range. It was also found in these examples that earthquakes/volcanic eruptions occurred simultaneously with these EM emissions. From this study, it can be concluded that the semidiurnal stresses on the earth and moon are primarily caused by the position of the Sun. This paper discusses all these examples in detail and an application for the development of reliable monitoring of precursors for earthquakes/volcanic
eruptions in high-seismicity areas.

Keywords: Telemetered network, semi-diurnal, diurnal RF emission, earthquake sequence and precursors.
...

www.isfep.com...

www.isfep.com...

But in order not to overwhelm the thread with research which not even you will read I posted just a few.

If you are going to make an acusation make sure you are right, otherwise it just shows you are not willing to do proper research into the topic you are discussing, and instead you are willing to throw strawman arguments just for the sake of derailing such a topic.

As for whether or not a tragedy such as Fukushima should have been avoided if research has been ongoing for 40 years, let me ask you this. For how long have doctors been treating the common cold? and why if they have been treating it for decades they haven't found a way to cure it?...

Does the fact that doctors haven't been able to cure the common cold means they do not know what can cause it?

Several research papers have dealt with what are the problems with being able to predict earthquakes, including for example the following.


Abstract Project- preliminary- 2004
The Geomagnetic Quakes as Reliable Earthquake
Precursor- Beijing, Lanzhou regions, 2004
Mavrodiev S. Cht.
Institute of Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Tzarigradsko shose 72, 1784 Sofia, Bulgaria
mavrodi@inrne.bas.bg
China geophysicists, seismic earthquake data
China geophysicists, vector geomagnetic data, Beijing and Lanzhou geomagnetic observatories
The impressive development of the Earth sciences on the basis of new precise Crust condition
parameters measurements permits to estimates the probabilities for earthquakes risk. But the
prediction the time, epicentre and Magnitude of incoming earthquake is not a solved problem.
Many scientists are state that this is not solvable. Such pessimism is right because of very
scare time and space set of Crust movement parameters monitoring and the uncertainties of
our today knowledge for the Earth and its magnetic field. The local "when" Earthquake
prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic "quakes" and the next incoming
minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the
predicted earthquake is +/-1 day for the minimum and +/-2 days for the maximum. The
preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between
predicted and occurred earthquakes for the period 2002- 2003 for Sofia region and for Beijing
and Lanzhou regions are given. The solving of earthquake's prediction problem and creating
its theory need the efforts of wide interdisciplinary science group from physicists,
geophysicists, seismologists, Earth geomagnetism theory, Atmosphere and near space
physics, biologists, the application of temporary almost real time GIS for data acquisition,
visualization, archiving and analysis, the new possibilities for solving step by step the
nonlinear inverse problems for testing the adequateness of physical models and the reliability
of predictions. The monitoring should include standard geodetic data, seismic hazard map
developments, electromagnetic field monitoring under (electrical signals in VAN method and
its Thanassoulas's variant), on (electropotential distribution, geomagnetic variations) and over
(VLF and ULF, vertical electropotential distribution) Earth surface, atmosphere effects
(earthquake's clouds, electrical charge distribution), the behaviour of Earth radiation belts,
biological precursors. The statistical estimation for reliability of time, epicentre and
magnitude prediction is obligatory. The Beijing- Lanzhou regions are proposed as polygon for
testing the possibilities for creating research and short time earthquakes prediction
NETWORK. The important advantage of the proposal is that the geophysical seismic,
geomagnetic, atmosphere and near space monitoring exists and the research needs more
software than hardware for testing the approach and applying it in the practice.
...

www.isfep.com...

Just because a solution hasn't been found to a problem does not necesarily mean the cause of that problem is unknown.

edit on 13-8-2011 by ElectricUniverse because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 08:08 AM
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reply to post by ElectricUniverse
 



If you are going to make an acusation make sure you are right, otherwise it just shows you are not willing to do proper research into the topic you are discussing, and instead you are willing to throw strawman arguments just for the sake of derailing such a topic.


You really need to look up the expression "strawman argument." I found this paper very interesting:


SUN INDUCES SEMI-DIURNAL STRESSES ON EARTH’S SURFACE, WHICH TRIGGER
EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Vinayak G. Kolvankar


It does indeed provide solid evidence that there is a diurnal periodicity involved in earthquakes, both here and on the Moon:


2.6 Example 6: Observations from Apollo Lunar Seismic Experiment (APSE)
APSE consisted of four seismometers placed on the lunar surface during 1969-1972. Each station included three long period instruments and a vertical short period. The data was telemetered to earth and recorded until 1977. Deep moonquakes at the depth of 700-1000 km dominate the entire collection of data and show good correlation with the tidal stresses. It is seen from the record (arranged by synodic month) that the noisiest part of the record occurs close to the times of lunar sunrise and sunset, even accompanied with spikes. The three-day (solar day) offset in the time of sunrise/sunset (around 10 & 23 days from new Moon for station 12 and around 07 & 20 days from new Moon for station 16; station 12 and station 16 were commissioned during the Apollo 12 and Apollo 16 missions, respectively) reflects the 39 degree difference in the longitudes of the two stations. This indicates that the local noisy period is not simultaneous and varies with longitude. The pattern is similar to the semi-diurnal pattern seen on the earth at different longitudes. The power spectra of the moonquakes also show peaks corresponding to synodic month, which suggests occurrences of moonquakes during the noisy periods (Lammlein et al., 2005).

www.isfep.com...

Since the Moon does not have an intrinsic global magnetosphere, this suggests that the effects are tidal that is, due to gravity, rather electromagnetic. The paper then goes on to state:


5.1. EM emission related to earthquakes and volcanoes
It is believed that the RF emissions come directly from the crystalline rocks of the crust. These rocks provide some sort of piezoelectric effect when subjected to stress.


Which is exactly what I have been saying all along. The paper is noting that these piezoelectric processes created an electromagnetic emission. In other words, the deformation of the crust causes the electromagnetic phenomena, not the other way around. What does the paper conclude?


6. Conclusions
EM emission related to earthquakes and volcanoes is a broadband phenomenon. This is broadly found in two versions, diurnal and semidiurnal type. Diurnal-type emissions are found to be more intense than the semidiurnal type. The timings of semidiurnal-type emissions are spaced equally on either side of the local noontime. The occurrences of earthquakes/volcanic eruptions are simultaneous with the emission times indicating that some stresses are generated during these periods. The causes of semidiurnal stresses seem to be the position of Sun. The causes of diurnal-type emission could be the planetary alignment, but more such cases need to be sought and examined to draw a precise conclusion.


In other words, there appears to be a daily variation in EM emissions from the Earth that seem to be related to the "position of the Sun." (Actually, what he means is the orientation of the Earth towards the Sun!) My interpretation is that this is the result of gravitational forces, which is why a similar effect can be discerned on the Moon, which has no large intrinsic magnetic field. What the author most certainly did not conclude is that solar flares cause earthquakes.


edit on 14-8-2011 by DJW001 because: (no reason given)

edit on 14-8-2011 by DJW001 because: Edit to correct formatting.



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 10:39 AM
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You people are so deep in the BS you even have to team up to fight ElectricUniverse
You can just admit it people, they would never disclose the fact that EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) from the sun causes EQ. Why? Disclosing that information will basically prove the point we are doomed!

Its kinda easy angry sun spit us with a EMP
, yes the part everyone always forget about and instead put focus on CME because the crap the EMP causes normally happen by the time the CME hit. CME normally hit days after solar flare erupted. EMP hit earth minutes after solar flare erupted, with every eruption a EMP always blast but not always CME. Every time a sunspot erupt a EMP blast ALWAYS.

Magnetism has a effect on everything some things more than others. With magnetism we can
1. modify weather (HAARP)
2. enhance communication (HAARP)
2. investigate the god particle (Large Hadron Collider)
3. make use of a proximity censor within a smartphone to sense surrounding areas
4. a EMP from the sun even makes protons energetic in the upper atmosphere
5. with magnetism you can even investigate metal objects to find whether a metal object contains unseenable cracks
6. magnetism RULES

BUT MAGNETISM DO NOT CREATE EQ, when a EMP hit it only effect some stupid protons in the upper atmosphere but please note magnetism has no effect on magma under the crust with a high content of IRON(sarcasm)

The rule is to note every single EMP the sun blast big or small not just the X-class or M-class everyone count them up and make note where each impact. Predicting EQ is kinda difficult because we do not know under how much stress some regions are already its like the weather man some times predicting rain and no rain shows up. Plus the "meter gauge" when EMP hit the "meter" run up and slowly going down and perhaps the "meter" didnt drop to normal and bang a C-class hit that adds up. Magma takes longer to settle down than protons up in the sky because of reasons chemical composition etc

(Something interesting HAARP was designed to enhance communications in the ionosphere. How? By zapping the ionosphere with EMP. Well a EMP from the sun also has this ability to enhance communications hehe. This would prove both HAARP and sun can improve communication. PLUS both EMP are capable of weather manipulation.)

Oh and I am a lazy bugger dont expect me to write pages and pages to prove myself because I am not desperate to make anyone believe and only get paranoid that a powerful EQ will hit when I get paranoid.
HAPPY NO SUNSPOT DAY EVERYONE only 2 days this year so far phew.

(when ever I laugh pretend you are hearing an evil scientist laughing
)
edit on 14-8-2011 by thestupidguy because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 12:51 PM
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Originally posted by DJW001
....
My interpretation is that this is the result of gravitational forces, which is why a similar effect can be discerned on the Moon, which has no large intrinsic magnetic field. What the author most certainly did not conclude is that solar flares cause earthquakes.


edit on 14-8-2011 by DJW001 because: (no reason given)

edit on 14-8-2011 by DJW001 because: Edit to correct formatting.


I know very well what a strawman argument is, but if you want, let's actually look it up...


Definition for strawman argument:
A straw man is a component of an argument and is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponents position.(1) To attack a straw man is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition (the straw man), and refuting it, without ever having actually refuted the original position.

en.wikipedia.org...

First you claimed that all the peer-reviewed research papers I presented are decades old, which not only is wrong but is "an informal fallacy".

Let's see what an informal fallacy is...


An informal fallacy is an argument whose stated premises fail to support their proposed conclusion.

en.wikipedia.org...

In essence your argument holds no water simply because I gave several peer-reviewed research work which included research of up to the year 2011, which makes your claim nothing more than a strawman argument.

Not only that, then in your last claim you are implying that my whole argument revolves around only solar flares when I have stated, and presented several peer-revewed research papers that state SOLAR ACTIVITY, not just solar flares can trigger earthquakes on Earth.

In case you didn't know SOLAR ACTIVITY, is not confined to just one factor, and I have clearly stated several times that SEVERAL factors influence not only seismic, and magmatic activity on Earth, but other natural disasters, and they are not confined only to factors caused by the Sun, which in case you didn't know I have also stated several times.

So again, you made ANOTHER strawman argument trying to imply that I was refering only to solar flares, which is wrong, simply because you really have no real argument at all.


edit on 14-8-2011 by ElectricUniverse because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 12:57 PM
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Relax Chad, you'll get your next big EQ on Sept 26th...

Elenin passes between Sun and Earth for second alignment for anticipated Geological Pole Shift Event. Second Alignment. 0.396 AU from Earth.

I too sometimes yearn for doom so I fully understand where you're coming from.



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 01:03 PM
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reply to post by Signals
 




I too sometimes yearn for doom so I fully understand where you're coming from.


Speaks volumes....but I'm not yearning for doom.



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 03:10 PM
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reply to post by Chadwickus
 


I keep forgetting to use the [ / sarcasm ] on some of my posts but I figured you had a built-in detector...


Perhaps we won't have to wait long for another big one, though, 4.0 just happened off the coast of Ca -

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 03:52 PM
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reply to post by Chadwickus
 


I had to let it go and see what happened... but thanks for the giggles.
And if the term "flame bait" isn't adding this thread, it's a sad day.



posted on Aug, 14 2011 @ 05:55 PM
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reply to post by ElectricUniverse
 



First you claimed that all the peer-reviewed research papers I presented are decades old, which not only is wrong but is "an informal fallacy".


The Duma article was from 1998. The Webb article was from 2004. The Mazzarella article was from 1998. The Myachina article was from 1971. You might not appreciate my characterization, but it was not inaccurate.

In essence your argument holds no water simply because I gave several peer-reviewed research work which included research of up to the year 2011, which makes your claim nothing more than a strawman argument.

The 2011 paper, which, you will note, supports my contention, was added after I made my admittedly rhetorical argument. You on the other hand have constantly claimed that I don't think the Sun has any effect on the Earth. That is not true; it is a strawman argument.


Not only that, then in your last claim you are implying that my whole argument revolves around only solar flares when I have stated, and presented several peer-revewed research papers that state SOLAR ACTIVITY, not just solar flares can trigger earthquakes on Earth.

In case you didn't know SOLAR ACTIVITY, is not confined to just one factor, and I have clearly stated several times that SEVERAL factors influence not only seismic, and magmatic activity on Earth, but other natural disasters, and they are not confined only to factors caused by the Sun, which in case you didn't know I have also stated several times.

So again, you made ANOTHER strawman argument trying to imply that I was refering only to solar flares, which is wrong, simply because you really have no real argument at all.


But the premise of this thread is that the recent large CME should have caused Earthquakes. I have consistently affirmed that this should not be the case; that the changes in local magnetic fields are due to piezoelectric effects caused by changes in the lithosphere, not the other way around. As I have shown in my previous post, at least one of your sources supports that contention.

I have absolutely no doubt that the Sun affects the Earth's weather, geo-magnetic field and other "systems." It is very likely that changes in the larger geo-magnetic field can cause changes in the telluric currents... but that does not cause earthquakes. That appears to be the fundamental difference between our points of view. I have no difficulty in agreeing to disagree about it. (All I know is that there was a huge CME and no notable earthquake.)



posted on Aug, 15 2011 @ 12:14 AM
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Whats really lame is I can't tell my gamer friends that my slow country internet is the result of solar activity. Its just plain old slow internet!



posted on Aug, 15 2011 @ 08:06 AM
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reply to post by Violetshy
 

I know right
one of the biggest CME's EVER directed at earth, and my internet didn't even blink
and it rained for the entire weekend, so no northern lights for me either

I feel wholely cheated.

And since I can't tell if the HAARP person above is serious or not, just for the record
THERE WERE NO MAJOR EARTHQUAKES - whats to admit?


I'm still waiting for someone to blame the London Riots on the Sun



posted on Aug, 15 2011 @ 09:40 AM
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Originally posted by Signals
Relax Chad, you'll get your next big EQ on Sept 26th...

Elenin passes between Sun and Earth for second alignment for anticipated Geological Pole Shift Event. Second Alignment. 0.396 AU from Earth.

I too sometimes yearn for doom so I fully understand where you're coming from.


If elenin really did cause the march EQ then Sept 26th is wrong date EQ wil happen before that date and geological pole shift will happen after that date anytime. Yes talking more than one EQ if elenin is culprit. If big sunspot appear during this time its not elenin. Wait until big sunspot appear soon magnetic-spectrometer

edit on 15-8-2011 by thestupidguy because: (no reason given)



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