Shouldn't we have had a huge earthquake by now?

I think you are a few days early on this thread. After Monday USA time, I'd concede there is no correlation between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes. Still stuff hitting us this weekend.

reply to post by CLPrime

awwww poor kitty

Today I'm actually finding posts claiming we're not allowed to say, "I told you so" until the 8th :bnghd:


beware the evil Texan-killing Ghost-Kitty

I have a smiley problem... is there a meeting?


ETA: AHHHHH point proven (see post above mine)

I agree that there is no direct and specific cause and effect between solar activity and earthquakes, however, I would caution that this does not mean there is no relationship at all.

Considering mankind's current inability to predict earthquakes, it seems a bit short sighted to completely rule out what may turn out to be one of a myriad of contributing/triggering conditions.

reply to post by Chadwickus

There was an X1.5 flare on March 9th. There was no CME associated with it.
The geomagnetic activity which occurred on March 10-12 was caused by a CME associated with an M3 flare on the 7th.

Again, the distinction should be made between a CME and a flare. Two different things often, but not always associated with each other. The effects, if any, of a flare are sensed 8 minutes after the event. The effects of a CME are experienced days (usually) afterward.

reply to post by Forevever


Earthquakes occur within 6 months, plus or minus 6 months, of CME events. That's a fact.
Another fact: the Iraq War occurred within 8 years, plus or minus 8 years, of Obama's Presidency.

Conclusion: earthquakes are triggered by CME events, and Obama is personally responsible for the Iraq War.

Or maybe Obama triggers earthquakes....

Or does he trigger CME events!?

I'm scared.

reply to post by Lionhearte


He didnt say THAT. He was talking about all the people who make these kinds of predictions. I dont think anyone is wishing for anything like this. There are many people on ATS who claim that these solar flares cause earthquakes.

Originally posted by SunnyDee
I think you are a few days early on this thread. After Monday USA time, I'd concede there is no correlation between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes. Still stuff hitting us this weekend.

First thing that popped in my mind when reading the OP, QFT...

Just give it until Monday, and BOOM (Economically and geographically) LOL

Originally posted by Nastradamus

Originally posted by SunnyDee
I think you are a few days early on this thread. After Monday USA time, I'd concede there is no correlation between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes. Still stuff hitting us this weekend.

First thing that popped in my mind when reading the OP, QFT...

Just give it until Monday, and BOOM (Economically and geographically) LOL

QFT....Quoted for Truth or Quantum Field Theory? Yep Monday could be shaky!

if we're going to make predictions lets at least be specific

otherwise - I'm not buying it

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I still count between 30 and 40 earthquakes every, single, day.

so whats going to qualify? any random 4.8'er or a minimum 8? 9? do I have to go to as low as 7?

for those who missed it, I'm about 90% positive that Dj is right and the OP is referring to the prediction made on Tuesday, about an Earthquake within 48 hours, who then changed his story to extend the period.


As far as I'm concerned, I'm rooting for the earthquakes.
If it doesn't come and everyone gets all disappointed, don't worry - or go head and worry all your ails can be blamed on solar flares too

reply to post by Chadwickus

What's going on here?

Obviously, the moon is in the wrong phase!



Seriously though, do people really still look for direct cause-and-effect correlations? Nobody big into systems analysis here?

reply to post by Chadwickus


Do you not understand that there are other factors which do affect how magnetic storms from the Sun affect the Earth?...

From the speed of the solar wind, to how strong has been the Sun's magnetic field, before and after the cme, to how weak, or strong is the Earth's magnetic field in the area where the cme hits Earth. Not to mention what Earth's core, it's telluric currents, and even what Earth's plates are doing within the Earth. Of course not to mention that other correlations have been found by SCIENTISTS, such as solar activity also may influence hurricane activity on Earth.

You have been shown what REAL SCIENTISTS have to say from at least a dozen research papers all which say there is a correlation. In what language does this has to be explained to you?

Study finds link between sun and hurricanes

Updated 6/1/2010 12:55 PM

The calmest sun in a century may rustle up more hurricanes in the season that officially began Tuesday.

Research by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner of Florida State University found the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the USA goes up drastically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle, as is now the case.

Our star is just beginning to eke out of the lowest period for sunspots in a century.

Years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures spawn a less stable atmosphere and, consequently, more hurricanes, researchers say. Years with more sunspots but still above-normal ocean temperatures yield a more stable atmosphere and thus fewer hurricanes.

"The effect is actually amplified under certain conditions," said James Elsner, a geography professor at Florida State University. Hodges is his graduate student.


"With fewer sunspots, there's less energy at the top of the atmosphere," Elsner said; therefore, the atmosphere above the hurricane is cooler.
...

www.usatoday.com...

But I guess some people are either not smart enough, or they are too close-minded to understand this.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


Yeah and the big list of papers you constantly link to contradict each other, increase in solar activity causes earthquakes, decrease in solar activity causes earthquakes, a sudden change in solar activity causes earthquakes.

Which is it?

There are always CME's and flares and there are always earthquakes.

Just because the two occur at the same time, doesn't mean they're connected.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
Yeah and the big list of papers you constantly link to contradict each other, increase in solar activity causes earthquakes, decrease in solar activity causes earthquakes, a sudden change in solar activity causes earthquakes.

Which is it?

There are always CME's and flares and there are always earthquakes.

Just because the two occur at the same time, doesn't mean they're connected.

They do not contradict each other, on the contrary YOU can't understand that when the Sun's activity fluctuates, either up or down it affects the Earth. How hard is that for you to understand?

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


We've been down this time and time again.

And since I'm supposed to have no idea, how about you share what conditions are needed for the sun to cause an earthquake?

If it's so clear cut you should have no problem describing it, right?

Originally posted by Chadwickus
We've been down this time and time again.

And since I'm supposed to have no idea, how about you share what conditions are needed for the sun to cause an earthquake?

If it's so clear cut you should have no problem describing it, right?

Already tried several times, you just either don't want to understand it, or you can't understand it.

Read again what I wrote in the post before, and if you want to know how Solar activity can also affect hurricanes, and storms on Earth perhaps this visual aid might help you undersand it.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/976c2ce7adf6.png[/atsimg]

This video might also help you understand.

Darn! I was expecting this to be about the New Madrid fault.
Instead someone is claiming that the same forces involved with a possible link to CME's and hurricanes can make an earthquake? Good gosh, that's really reaching.
I think I'll wait on experts in earthquakes. The point is earthquakes were predicted, and nothing happened. Just saying "just maybe, there's the possibility, that perhaps, on some occassions, statistics could be found to correlate that CME's might possibly influence earthquakes" isn't even close enough ot a theory to consider.
And choosing this doesn't make me close-minded. It makes me a realist.

Correlation Between Time-Specific Solar Activity and Subsequent Earthquakes

K. Schulenberg

Presented at WPGM 2006 in Beijing, China on Thursday July 27th.

Since 1999, a research associate and I have been examining whether in certain circumstances
external influences might prompt earthquakes to occur soon than they normally would have
under regular tectonic processes. Specifically, we have been investigating whether it is possible
to find a direct pattern of solar activity which precedes seismic events and may be useful as a
tool of prediction. We do not in any way discount the accepted models of how earthquakes
occur, in other words the plate tectonic schema of how faults and subduction zones work. But we
do believe that these processes are not always self-contained, and can in fact be influenced by
outside factors.

Specifically we have examined solar activity and subsequent seismic activity, with the aim of
determining whether there was a specific event or events on the Sun which could be statistically
linked to earthquakes.

After examining the patterns of solar activity ahead of several earthquakes, a pattern did emerge.
In a large number of earthquakes, one to two days before the seismic event, the Sun had emitted
either a sweep-frequency radio burst or an X-ray surge during a very narrow time frame: within
40 minutes before sunset, or from 15 minutes before to 30 minutes after sunrise. Overall, this is
95 minutes per day, or 190 minutes within the 48 hour period; this represents less than six-point-
six percent of the overall time within that 48 hours.

This is an extremely narrow period in which to find a recurring pattern; nonetheless, three
statistical analyses show the pattern is so consistent that coincidence must be ruled out.

The two solar events are related. Sweep-frequency bursts of the Type III and Type V variety
propagate in soft X-ray jets, while Type II and Type IV are associated with disturbances that
frequency are also accompanied by strong X-ray surges as well as coronal mass ejections.

We are performing statistical analyses to determine an average correspondence ration between
solar events and subsequent earthquakes. Three are complete so far.
...

Link

ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON
SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES:
LONG-TERM FORECAST

*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)
...
In our point of view, it’s wrong to simplify the interpretation of the link
between tectonic processes and solar activity. It’s known that the solar activity
influences on climate processes, changes of the ocean level, that in turn has the
influence on the energetic condition of lithosphere and mantle, and as a result, on the
tectonic processes. Thus, G.S. Ivanov-Kholodniy marks out, that processes of
ionization of ionosphere initiated by solar activity have different character depending
on the altitude. A theory of calculation of the influence level of solar flare on the
ionization processes of different layers of ionosphere was suggested. At the same
time it’s noted, that the mechanism of influence of solar activity on geophysical
processes is rather multifarious and requires detailed and many-sided study (Ivanov-
Kholodniy, 2000).
In our opinion, the fact of existence of cycles in tectonic processes
comparable with the period of solar activity is very important. Taking into
consideration the complexity of interrelations and inertness of many physical and
chemical processes, the shift of one part of cycles comparatively with another
becomes evident.
...

Link

Originally posted by stars15k
...
Just saying "just maybe, there's the possibility, that perhaps, on some occassions, statistics could be found to correlate that CME's might possibly influence earthquakes" isn't even close enough ot a theory to consider.
And choosing this doesn't make me close-minded. It makes me a realist.

And your conclusion must be right exactly why?...

Let me try to put it as simple as I can possibly can in showing you how some factors, apart from other solar activity, can influence how a cme affects Earth.

Imagine that your head is Earth, and imagine that one of those plastic police shields is Earth's magnetic field. Now imagine someone throwing a rock at your head meanwhile your shield is up, that rock is going to be deflected, but what will happen if your shield is down? That's just One factor, and there are several.

Another factor is that your head, and body, might not always there to be hit by rocks, and in the same way not all cmes are directed at Earth, an error which Chad did not take into account in one of his tries to debunk this connection.

Another factor is how strong the solar wind itself is, how strong has been the Sun's magnetic field before, and after a cme hits Earth.

Another factor is what are Earth's fault doing during the time the cme is hitting that area, etc, etc, etc.

Just because there are many factors which affect how cmes, and other solar and cosmic activities can affect the Earth it doesn't mean they don't, and believing that there is no such correlation simply because there are many factors which influence how cmes and solar activity affect the Earth, it does NOT make you a realist. That's just not thinking straight, and not being able to see the whole picture.

so that means even if there's no earthquake by Tuesday, you still get to link people to google documents as verification that CME's cause earthquakes?

I just want to be clear.

Looks like a lot of loopholes to me.