BLACK FRIDAY? - 05 Aug 2011

Are you nutts, I fell out with them bastards in 2008

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his Federal Reserve colleagues are preparing to meet next week as two-year Treasury yields at a record low signal a U.S. economy on the knife’s edge between growth and contraction. Guiding their assessment of the outlook for the world’s largest economy will be forecasts contained in the so-called Teal Book, a confidential staff report with a blue-green cover. Policy makers’ confidence in those forecasts may be tempered as the course of the expansion has confounded their expectations.

Bloomberg

Good old Bernanke, trust him to come out at a time like this, to help cheer everyone up!

About 30 minutes until the NYSE opens....

Let's get your open and close predictions now!

In the mean time, im searhing the interweb for a site that will accept a bet against a loss.

reply to post by DarthPhobos


Well if you can't trust them, I wouldn't trust anything we have to say.

reply to post by JakiusFogg


Lol, it would be rather funny if beer became a currency. But yeah, I don't drink so ... I'll pass .

I'm in Australia anyway, so I think we're ok for now (beer price wise). No WWIII happening yet.

reply to post by Krystian


it's called the Comex!! seriously though. I still think the jitters are in the system, and people will be scurring for safe areas.

Bond yeilds are down,
Joblessness is down but only because people with no jobs retired.
payroll are UP (thats inflation for you)

Difficult to say but will say close around -2.5% running a total loss since yesterday of around 700+ (2008 loss levels maybe a little more)

reply to post by JakiusFogg

Joblessness is down but only because people with no jobs retired.

Yup, almost 200,000 people left. Not to mention only 58% of the eligible population is holding a job.

www.bloomberg.com...

The jobless rate declined as 193,000 people left the labor force and the number of unemployed dropped by 156,000. The share of the eligible population holding a job declined to 58.1 percent, the lowest since July 1983.

Edit - Another article with a bit more info

www.marketwatch.com...

During times of rapid growth, the U.S. typically adds at least 200,000 jobs a month, and much larger increases would be required for months on end to yank the unemployment rate back down to pre-recession levels.

The rate of hiring in July wasn’t even enough to absorb the natural increase in the labor force, which requires about 125,000 new jobs a month.

Impact of jobs report fades quickly

A somewhat better than expected U.S. non-farms payroll report Friday was enough to turn stock futures positive.

But its effect is already beginning to fade somewhat as the overwhelming gloom over the global economy, Thursday’s market tumble, and Europe’s spreading debt crisis continues.

S&P futures ES1U briefly pointed as high as 1,220 before falling back

Likewise with the Dow YM1U, which pointed above 11,500 immediately after the report, only to fall back to, 11,427.

Well...that didnt last long

I may be wrong, because **I** am not an 'expert' but when I look down my street I see no one working anymore. One lady has a job at Central Park hamburger joint, part time. I guess I should add that is ONE job.

But anyway, my hub works in the housing industry, and a lot of those folks no longer get umemployment. I think when they exhaust unemployment, they are no longer counted, and thus maybe 'drop out?'

In any event, I think they write a number they want on the board then say, make it fit, this is what we need.

Later, they say, oh well, we didn't count these people or 'we had to readjust the figures.'

Their official unemployment rate might as well stand for "How much the govt. is willing to lie to you" scale.

My prediction for the end of today:

Loss of 2% or greater.

Too late for opening predictions.

My Beer prediction:

It will not become a currency because it has an expiration date (and nobody likes warm beer), but it will be a valuable trading commodity while it is unexpired and fresh. Liquor does not have an expiration date and will be a more valuable trading commodity than beer. Gasoline will be the greatest trading commodity for the US population. Maybe even the world's population.

Paper and coin money will be useless and credit cards or debit cards even more useless.

Note: I don't drink either, but that doesn't mean I don't have beer to offer (or sell) to my guests.

What happened with the debt crises will haunt the US population forever. The Government's stupidity in allowing the debt to be kicked down the road instead of fixing the problem will become an even bigger elephant in the room. AND they didn't kick it too far down the road either. We will have to deal with this debt problem again very soon.

It kills me that we have burdened our childeren with this financial mess. The Gov't is not being financially responsible. Not surprising, but highly aggitating!

-E2

Hadriana, I too have heard if our unemployment runs out then you no longer counted for or against the employment figures.

Can anyone confirm?

If so then these numbers are tremendously skewed as some willing to work people saw unemployment run out after being fired back in 08, still unable to find a job ut not being counted as unemployed.

reply to post by hadriana


Well here in South Africa if you are a beggar or someone selling goods on the street you are not counted in the unemployment figures

Now if that manipulation doesnt make you go WTF then I dont know what will.

On a more general basis, just got an e mail with the following link, dont know if it adds anything new
www.fin24.com...

Eish!!!!

reply to post by demoncleaner


$2.5 trillion was lost yesterday? Ouch! I wonder how much will be recovered today?

Well, on the bright side, US stocks took off well (the bell rang about 15 minutes ago)

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/26304f2a4711.jpg[/atsimg]

ETA -

reply to post by Krystian

Hadriana, I too have heard if our unemployment runs out then you no longer counted for or against the employment figures

You wont be counted as in the labor force (hence, not counted in the official unemployment numbers) if you give up looking for work. They classify you as a "discouraged worker". Im not 100% sure on this next one but....if your unemployment runs out, I dont think you will be counted in the numbers (again, not 100% sure about that one)

she slowly dropping

NASDAQ heading south fast, DOW Following suit

European markets joining the decline, oh oh hang tight

didnt last long at all

www.marketwatch.com...

I declare all countries bankrupt. Lets wipe the slate clean and start all over.

reply to post by HAMO2011


Yep...It's starting to sink.

I'm going to watch it today. The gains at opening are already lost.

Well THAT was amazing.....didnt even take 30 minutes to start falling fast again....great

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/23dfe1464b2a.jpg[/atsimg]

Europe is also taking a fall now to. Atleast their rise lasted more than an hour

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5241fdf541dc.jpg[/atsimg]