M9.3 Solar Flare

reply to post by DivineIntervention


It should be updated every 6-24 hours depending on change in the features. The loop is good for 8 days out. Think of it like a space-future-radar loop, cept instead of looking at thunderstorms, you're looking at a solarstorm, if you will. Even though that's a rough term.

reply to post by DivineIntervention


I see now.

Guess it was taking time to load properly.

Thanks for your reply.

Hopefully they keep poppin off.

The M9.3 event was associated with a fast full halo CME

Event Issue Date: 2011-08-04 06:44:43.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-08-05 13:55:11.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 5 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by Shugo
reply to post by Ghost375

 

Never said it was impossible. Just said I don't think it's a likely issue this time around.

You can bet your top dollar they'd be springing some crazy notion into action if there was a true threat to the power infrastructure. The core of the issue lies on the east coast where there was a blackout in 2003, and on the west coast where rolling blackouts continue onward.

I agree. I think it's possible a strong X flare could cause some blackouts, but there's no way the blackout would be as bad as some would want you to believe. Our infrastructure is probably at a level where it wouldn't be that serious.
But after hearing about the X-class flare directed at Earth 2 days before the Japan quake, for me, the jury is still out whether strong flares and CMEs can cause Earthquakes. Since a M9.3 flare is pretty close to an X flare, if no major Earthquakes happen in the next few days, I'll never mention solar flares and earthquakes in the same sentence. It could very well be a huge coincidence that the last Xclass flare just happened to occur 2 days before the Japan Quake.

So I think the most important question is not being asked here... Will there be auroras caused by this and would I see them in Illinois? Lol
:-)

comparable to



akin to flowers blooming, for me

Originally posted by Ghost375
Um, I'm pretty sure the last Xclass flare directed at Earth was March 9th, 2011. 2 days before the Earthquake in Japan.

here's a video uploaded on March 9th to Youtube.
It was an X1.5 flare.

edit on 4-8-2011 by Ghost375 because: (no reason given)

Exactly my thoughts also...let this be a test for EQ relationships to Solar flares...time will tell...although how sustained a flare may influence...if we are in the proton cloud long enough it should warp the mantle enough to trigger something when it eventually lets the warp go back to normal...

I had a strange feeling few hours ago...like a intuition something was happening and I should get to ATS...I LOVE the effort everyone puts in on here...like a pack of global watchdogs...THANK YOU ALL....lets hope this is mild...anyone notice this is MAYAN TIME again aswell? By tuesday don't be surprised if there is something rumbling....

Originally posted by Ghost375

Originally posted by Shugo
reply to post by Ghost375

 

Never said it was impossible. Just said I don't think it's a likely issue this time around.

You can bet your top dollar they'd be springing some crazy notion into action if there was a true threat to the power infrastructure. The core of the issue lies on the east coast where there was a blackout in 2003, and on the west coast where rolling blackouts continue onward.

I agree. I think it's possible a strong X flare could cause some blackouts, but there's no way the blackout would be as bad as some would want you to believe. Our infrastructure is probably at a level where it wouldn't be that serious.
But after hearing about the X-class flare directed at Earth 2 days before the Japan quake, for me, the jury is still out whether strong flares and CMEs can cause Earthquakes. Since a M9.3 flare is pretty close to an X flare, if no major Earthquakes happen in the next few days, I'll never mention solar flares and earthquakes in the same sentence. It could very well be a huge coincidence that the last Xclass flare just happened to occur 2 days before the Japan Quake.

THe lvl of the flare is important...but the CME size might be as important...if the wave is sustained it will have more time to warp the earths shape...then it drops us when we pop out of the protons...i could be crazy, but I don't think so

reply to post by Drala


The space weather site is quoting analysts with GSFC Space Weather Lab as saying "the impact on Earth is likely to be major". The cloud emitted this morning is suppose to "sweep up" the two earlier CMEs, making this a triple
combined CME.

Can anyone tell me what they mean by major impact? Also, I am curious as to what type of radioactive exposure this would mean for pilots? Does anyone know?

Originally posted by bellesgm
reply to post by Drala

 

The space weather site is quoting analysts with GSFC Space Weather Lab as saying "the impact on Earth is likely to be major". The cloud emitted this morning is suppose to "sweep up" the two earlier CMEs, making this a triple
combined CME.

Can anyone tell me what they mean by major impact? Also, I am curious as to what type of radioactive exposure this would mean for pilots? Does anyone know?

Well... It's a 7 on a scale of 0-9, 3 combined CMEs.

It is'nt everyday a conservative site like spaceweather Says 'MAJOR' impact on Earth.

I'd say at least some sat damage.

So 7AM PST tomorrow ± 6 hours, correct?

Fridays are always full of excitement!

Ya tomorrow.. Check this out.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 42
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 1603 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2011 Aug 05

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 93
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 1603 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G2 (Moderate) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2011 Aug 06

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 478
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 1602 UTC

CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted for UTC
Day 2011 Aug 05
Cancel Serial Number: 477
Original Issue Time: 2011 Aug 03 0448 UTC

Comment: This Watch will be superseded by a new Watch of A>50 for 05 August.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 46
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 1047 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 45
Valid From: 2011 Aug 04 0459 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2011 Aug 04 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 278
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 0656 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2011 Aug 04 0635 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

www.swpc.noaa.gov

reply to post by bellesgm


The CME will cause active to major geomagnetic storming. We will see the K-index reaching up to 6 maybe 7.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
ACTIVE
Geomagnetic levels such that AP is greater than 15 and less than 30.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM
Minor Geomagnetic Storm: Ap index is greater than 29 and less than 50.

Major Geomagnetic Storm: Ap index is greater than 49 and less than 100.

Severe Geomagnetic Storm: Ap index is 100 or more.

Ap INDEX: An averaged planetary A INDEX based on data from a set of specific stations.
A INDEX: A daily index of geomagnetic activity derived as the average of the eight 3-hourly a indices. It varies in value from 0 to about 400

We've had severe storms in the recent past reaching up to 200 and more.
It's normal these occur during solar maximum and as the cycle peaks.
31/03/2001 - 195
29/10/2003 - 189
08/11/2004 - 189
24/08/2005 - 110
14/12/2006 - 104

Some malfunctions and damages with satellites and ground equipment were reported.
Like the geomagnetic storm of March 1989 which caused the Quebec-blackout.

During the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, four of the Navy's navigational satellites had to be taken out of service for up to a week, the U.S. Space Command had to post new orbital elements for over 1000 objects affected, and the Solar Maximum Mission satellite fell out of orbit in December the same year.

As technology has allowed spacecraft components to become smaller, their miniaturized systems have become increasingly vulnerable to the more energetic solar particles. These particles can cause physical damage to microchips and can change software commands in satellite-borne computers.

Another problem for satellite operators is differential charging. During geomagnetic storms, the number and energy of electrons and ions increase. When a satellite travels through this energized environment, the charged particles striking the spacecraft cause different portions of the spacecraft to be differentially charged. Eventually, electrical discharges can arc across spacecraft components, harming and possibly disabling them.

en.wikipedia.org...
You may worry if you own a sattelite.

reply to post by Centurionx


G2 = moderate
wait till we hit G5

Link to classifications and space weather scales
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

you can follow here

Originally posted by SpringHeeledJack
Great post!

Important.

Timely.

Without spin.

Agreed! Just the facts