M9.3 Solar Flare

www.solarham.com...

ALERT: Sunspot 1261 is at it again, this time producing a strong M9.3 Solar Flare at 03:57 UTC Thursday morning. It also turns out that yet another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced and you can see it in the still image below captured by STEREO Ahead.

Proton Levels did increase and is close to the S1 Minor Radiation storm levels.

www.spaceweather.com...

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a strong M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event. Stay tuned for updates.

INCOMING CLOUDS: At least two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are now en route to Earth, propelled toward us by eruptions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot 1261 on August 2nd and 3rd. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab have just produced a new 3-D model of the advancing CMEs. Click on the image to set the clouds in motion:

Who got the sun drunk?

All joking aside --

This should really setup for quite an interesting sky show. Not only that, but there may be some minor interference on radio frequencies and satellite transmissions. Might make people go outside and enjoy some fresh air if they're strong enough! I'll certainly be out watching for some violet aurora's.

Great post!

Important.

Timely.

Without spin.

I was just about to post a thread about this. you beat me by 1 minute
That's the third flare in 2 days. All 3 almost directly at Earth. Sunspot 1263 still has a chance of throwing a X-class flare at us, as well. and a 9.3M is pretty much an X, right?

I just looked again at sunspot 1263. It looks exactly like 1261 did the past 2 days, but maybe a little bigger. I think there's a really good chance it creates an X-class flare, soon.

Here's to hoping the power grid will hold up. The U.S. needs to upgrade the power grid infrastructure VERY soon to prevent nationwide blackouts.

Originally posted by DivineIntervention
Here's to hoping the power grid will hold up.

The U.S. needs to upgrade the power grid infrastructure VERY soon to prevent nationwide blackouts.

While I strongly agree that an upgrade to the U.S. power grid is needed. I don't think an M9.3 magnitude, or even an X magnitude solar event will cause any issues with it. It's sustained it before, I can't see it not going through it again. However, if it proves to be stronger, we may have some issues, especially on the coasts.

reply to post by Shugo


I thought the black out in New York some years back was linked to a flare.

Am I mistaken?

reply to post by dreamfox1


I clicked on your image but nothing happened???

reply to post by SpringHeeledJack


That was not conclusive if it was actually a solar event which caused the blackout. There are many theories which exist in front of that potential, including a system bug, a system malfunction, and infrastructural damage on a physical level. The absolute reason has never been officially identified, or if it was, not disclosed.

Originally posted by Shugo

Originally posted by DivineIntervention
Here's to hoping the power grid will hold up.

The U.S. needs to upgrade the power grid infrastructure VERY soon to prevent nationwide blackouts.

While I strongly agree that an upgrade to the U.S. power grid is needed. I don't think an M9.3 magnitude, or even an X magnitude solar event will cause any issues with it. It's sustained it before, I can't see it not going through it again. However, if it proves to be stronger, we may have some issues, especially on the coasts.

I see your point. Could you imagine if one of the grids got fried (East Coast for example), how much chaos and civil unrest there would be? I mean, you are basically going back to the stone age if that were to happen. Hopefully it won't because like you said, it's held up before. There's always a first for everything. lol

reply to post by Shugo

I wouldn't underestimate the power of the sun if I were you. But don't fear it. Love it. Without it you'd be dead. Marvel at its beauty and magnificence. But don't stare directly at it

Um, I'm pretty sure the last Xclass flare directed at Earth was March 9th, 2011. 2 days before the Earthquake in Japan.

here's a video uploaded on March 9th to Youtube.
It was an X1.5 flare.

reply to post by Ghost375


Never said it was impossible. Just said I don't think it's a likely issue this time around.
You can bet your top dollar they'd be springing some crazy notion into action if there was a true threat to the power infrastructure. The core of the issue lies on the east coast where there was a blackout in 2003, and on the west coast where rolling blackouts continue onward.

reply to post by SpringHeeledJack

Solar flares have never been linked to anything on Earth's surface.

CMEs (coronal mass ejections) cause geomagnetic storms which can cause problems with power grids.

A flare is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. A CME is a burst of plasma.

The two are often, but not always associated with each other. A powerful flare is usually associated with a powerful CME but the converse is not necessarily true.

A flare is emitted in all directions from its source. A flare anywhere on the hemisphere of the Sun which is facing Earth "hits" Earth.

A CME is directional. Many CMEs miss Earth entirely.

reply to post by Ghost375


Here we go!

It had to start some time





Are you about to make a prediction?

I've looked at the model, and it looks like we may have dodged the second burst.

iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov...

reply to post by DivineIntervention


First off: Thanks for sharing that site. New to me

Second: Is that updated in real-time? I just saw it spin.

Exciting. Like watching the grass grow but with a MUCH better ending.

reply to post by Phage


I see. Thank you for the lesson.

I had always thought there was some evidence but it was minor.

Definitely should have checked that as I'm sure you know the failings between "thought" and "fact."

To be honest, I'm a little disappointed now.

Originally posted by Ghost375
I was just about to post a thread about this. you beat me by 1 minute

That's the third flare in 2 days. All 3 almost directly at Earth. Sunspot 1263 still has a chance of throwing a X-class flare at us, as well. and a 9.3M is pretty much an X, right?

I just looked again at sunspot 1263. It looks exactly like 1261 did the past 2 days, but maybe a little bigger. I think there's a really good chance it creates an X-class flare, soon.

edit on 4-8-2011 by Ghost375 because: (no reason given)

Here, search the differences

this is ss 11263
11263 is now the largest spot
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6761620492c5.jpg[/atsimg]


this is ss 11261
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6f461606d6d6.jpg[/atsimg]
This region will continue to produce major flares because of its complexity in polarities.

magnetic structure of the spot
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1260 N18W62 358 0200 Cso 10 05 Beta
1261 N16W37 333 0300 Dki 09 15 Beta-Gamma
1263 N17W06 301 0600 Dki 10 16 Beta-Gamma-Delta
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by SpringHeeledJack


I don't believe it's updated in real time. I think it's just a model showing from the time of the CME, to the projected date(s) it will arrive at the various planets.