posted on Jul, 30 2011 @ 06:39 PM
It's like when you're getting in the shower (A) and the phone rings (B). Most of the time it doesn't happen but when it does it's really annoying
and you are made particularly aware of it. Does it mean that getting into the shower induces someone (anyone) to call you at that moment? What about
all those times you get into the shower and the phone doesn't ring? Is something preventing those people from calling at that moment? Is the
correlation of (A) and (B) of any significance?
Now, let's say it's your birthday and you've got a lot of friends and family. All these people are calling to offer you their best wishes. You're
getting a lot more calls than you normally do. The chances are greatly increased that just as you step into the shower someone will call. On your
birthday the chances of (B) following (A) are increased.
Do you understand what's happening? Two unrelated events which, when they occur simultaneously, you notice more than you normally would. Now if you
increase the frequency of just one of those events. You increase the chances that both will occur at the same time.
Now, instead of getting into the shower we have an earthquake (A) and instead of a phone call we have solar activity (B). When there isn't much solar
activity (solar minimum) there are just as many earthquakes as there ever are. Sometimes an earthquake follows solar activity and sometimes it
doesn't. But what happens at solar maximum? That phone is ringing (B) a lot more often. Because there is more solar activity, the chances that an
earthquake will follow it are increased, even though the earthquake would have happened anyway. The correlation is dependent upon the frequency of
only one of the events. Now, if the occurrence of (A) and (B) increase and decrease together the correlation is stronger (though causation is still
not implied). But in the case of earthquakes and solar activity that relationship is not seen. All we see is that sometimes an earthquake occurs after
solar activity, the same way that sometimes the phone rings when you step into the shower.
Since we are moving toward solar maximum it can be expected that we will see more solar activity. Does that mean more earthquakes? Past evidence does
not seem to indicate so.