what kind of damage would happen from a object this size?

great,
a drill
and next we will have an event,.
didnt we have a drill when 9/11 happened?

Agreed. On 9/11 they were having a drill that matched exactly the type of attack that took place. Same with 7/7 in the U.K.. And I believe there were drills in Norway only days before that attack.

Either they know something we (the general public) don't, or the guy who plans these drills is the unluckiest bastard on the planet.

As can be seen we will have more then one visitor that day, we will also be passing through Elenins tail and debris at that time...Won't they effect each others orbits being so close together and to us...

hmmm,.
Me wonders how accurate,... or inaccurate the simulation really is,.
what if it hit the moon?

As these objects pass by other bodies in our solar system their speed has to be affected. I imagine there is no way to know exactly to what degree they will be affected. These models that show the path in relationship to Earth's orbit are purely speculation at best. Should get interesting as these objects get closer.

Originally posted by IamAbeliever
As these objects pass by other bodies in our solar system their speed has to be affected. I imagine there is no way to know exactly to what degree they will be affected.

The existence of Neptune could be predicted by speed variations in the orbit of Uranus in the early-mid 1800's by hand calculations - now we have computers on our phones that can do that in a fraction of a second!

the effect of the gravity from known objects is somewhat trivial for astronomers to calculate today - it is only unknown ones that hold any mystery.

And unknown ones with any significance would reveal themselves by their effects on existing bodies such as other planets.

Remember - in the mid 1800's there was enough math to predict where Neptune would be based upon irregularities in the orbit of Uranus.

that is why we know elinin is jsut a little comet and not some hulking great brown dwarf, and why we can be pretty sure about where this one will go.

These models that show the path in relationship to Earth's orbit are purely speculation at best.

No - they are the result of a great deal of observation and calculation.

Should get interesting as these objects get closer.

the main variable that remains unknown is the mass of the comet itself - but it is so small compared to that of any planet, or even teh moon, that it could vary by a massive amount and still have little or no effect.

none-the-less, as it gets closer the observations will get more precise and the trajectory refined with less and less potential error - but don't expect any massive changes.