NEWS: Category 4 Storm Hurricane Charley Makes Landfall, Massive Damage and Casualty Reports

They're referring to it as "Parade of Storms" Hellmutt.

We normally only see 3 at the most but we can see 5 all lined up

Does anyone know what that hurricane guru predicted for this year? It should be noted that he does his predicting from CO, not the Gulf Coast.

With dopplers and predictors and whizzgidgets and doodahs it really doesn't matter where you do your hurricane plotting anymore.

Its going to be a rough season, thats all we know.

Originally posted by Nerdling
With dopplers and predictors and whizzgidgets and doodahs it really doesn't matter where you do your hurricane plotting anymore.

Its going to be a rough season, thats all we know.

I was pointing out that he does it from a safe distance.

[edit on 04/8/15 by GradyPhilpott]

The "Farmers Almanac" predicted 8 hurricanes in 2004, three of which will be classified as "intense," or major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Though individual hurricane landfall can not be accurately forecast for an individual year, for those living on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, there is a 52 percent probability of having a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale; more about this later) will actually reach land. This might not seem much, but it is greater than the landfall probability from last century, which was 31 percent. For the residents of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, the probability of landfall is slightly less -- 40 percent, compared to 30 percent last century.

Predictions

Named tropical storms - 14
Named tropical storm days - 55
Hurricanes - 8
Hurricane days - 30
Intense hurricanes - 3
Intense hurricane days - 6
Hurricane destruction potential* - 85
Net tropical cyclone activity - 125

*Hurricane destruction potential measures a hurricane's potential for wind- and ocean-surge damage.


www.almanac.com...


This is also a good link...

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND US LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2004

Nothing like a few thousand miles to make you actively watch danger. I'm in Scotland here and I couldnt keep my eyes off the storm.

Originally posted by Nerdling

Nothing like a few thousand miles to make you actively watch danger. I'm in Scotland here and I couldnt keep my eyes off the storm.

Ain't it a wonderful world, Nerdling. You in Scotland, me in New Mexico, USA, chatting about the weather. I'm of Scottish decent, by the way, with a dollop of Norwegian. I'm a Higgins. We came by way of Ulster.

Here's the guy I was talking about. He's had a good record based on his models.

I'll post some good news for the residents of Florida. If you can believe forecasts (they do deviate a bit at times), tropical storm Earl is most likely to hit the Yucatan Peninsula before possibly curving north towards Texas. Hurricane Danielle is expected to curve north out to sea and not be a problem for the US mainland.

As far as South Carolina goes, I didn't expect much damage and I haven't seen any damage pics. I'm glad the Hurricane down in Florida wasn't a real bad cat 5 hurricane or residents would be dead instead of talking about close calls. Anyone heard of any damage estimates? I heard someone say 20 billion in Florida but I don't see how this DJ could know that considering the damage estimates were likely not all in yet.

How are hurricane wind speeds measured? I'm thinking it's measured at certain altitudes and the rated wind speed of a hurricane is not necessarily what sustained winds at the ground will be. I've heard the winds get carried to the ground in the rain storms of a hurricane. I believe this may be true since I hear of a hurricane with sustained winds of say 90 mph but after the storm passed by you only hear of a max recorded wind gust of 62 mph.

Originally posted by orionthehunter
How are hurricane wind speeds measured?

I wasn't sure but after searching, I found a year-old article explaining a new way to measure hurricane winds from a safe distance.

Researchers have certified a new tool to measure wind speeds at the sea's surface during a hurricane from the relative safety of an aircraft flying thousands of feet overhead.

Scientists at the NOAA's Hurricane Research Center and the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences have been using the devices on research aircraft since 1985.

Researchers at the University of Massachusetts built the first instrument, called the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer, and have been working with NOAA scientists to refine the technology.

The device works by sensing the high radiation emitted in microwave bands from the sea surface. When hurricane-force winds blow over the ocean, the churning water creates foam, which radiates a higher-than-normal level of microwave energy. Over the years, researchers have been able to calibrate this microwave signature with wind speeds at the surface.

Using a receiver-computer about the size of a 27-inch television set, scientists measure the microwave signals over six channels, running them through models to fix wind speed even in the presence of heavy rain at the surface.

Combined in near-real time with other observations, the information is used to fashion a hurricane wind field map that plots wind speeds in different quadrants of a storm.

www.thesunlink.com...

Pretty interesting, I had no idea how they went about doing that.

NOAA: August 2004 Update to Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

[edit on 8-15-2004 by ProudAmerican]

Originally posted by WestPoint23
I was hoping charley got upgraded to a catagory-4 just because I want to see some kool pics of it in action. Sure some people will be pissed cuz their house got blow away but i live up in the northeast all I have to worry about is some rain

Anyone know what are the chances of Charley going up to Category 5?

That is just such an ignorant thing to say.

Dozens of ppl are dead and 1000's are homeless. I hope your house gets flooded from the rain.

[edit on 16-8-2004 by Tr33stump]

Anyone heard of any damage estimates?

Ive heard anything from 10 billion to 30 billion on the local news stations.
However, thats just for Florida. Charlie made it all the way up to the Carolina's and was still a Hurricane! I wouldnt be suprized if he does more damage than Andrew did over 10 years ago.

I think there going to retire that name. Ive heard talk about that already.

There are some isolated tonados touching down (S. Daytona) but not reports of injuries, etc. I am sure they are just all taking precautions.

I dont know what you mean by "isolated"? Im on the east coast. I live in north Fort Myers where the eye of the storm came when it was still a catagory 4. There are reports of "isolated" tornados in just my city and the surounding cities alone. We are approx. 6 hours away from S. Daytona. I had no clue there were tornados touching down on the other side of the state ( due to the fact I can only get local radio stations because of the large power outages. I am typing this from a hotel room in Sarasota). I would say that the tornados were a bit more than "isolated".

Also, I dont like to worry anyone but here goes, ive hear reports of at least 16 ppl dead in my area and they are expecting that number to go way up. People didnt take the warnings too seriously and have paid dearly in doing so, probably because this is the first major hurricane to hit the southwest side of Florida since hurricane Donna ( I believe ) in roughly 50 years. Noone expected, or even conceived this could happen.

[edit on 16-8-2004 by Tr33stump]

Originally posted by Tr33stump
I dont know what you mean by "isolated"? Im on the east coast. [edit on 16-8-2004 by Tr33stump]

I don't know what I meant by that either, other than that's the way they were described. I think it refers to the ones that form suddenly, touch down quickly and are concentrated in the damage (one house here and there), as oppossed to one that forms, can be followed and confirmed by a wide path of damage.

anybody know how bad Virginia was effected by the hurricane on saturday especially?? how bad did they get it?