ATS Members in Florida

91 knots was the maximum wind speed the last image I saw. I wonder how that translates to surface winds? Or is that surface winds? I don't remember. I think that storm has potential (if it stays on a more northward path for 24 hours) to strengthen quite a bit before landfall. Don't be shocked to see this at 130+ mph at the time of landfall.

Originally posted by Indy
91 knots was the maximum wind speed the last image I saw. I wonder how that translates to surface winds?

That's between 105-110 mph. Medium grade. Always prudent to take ANY storm seriously, they can change at any time. Especially if there is a water base that it can draw from, like the ocean. Good luck friends, hope it doesn't stall.

Here are some buoy reports of interest to monitor as this storm moves north.

Sand Key, FL
www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

Dry Tortugas, FL
www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

Off Shore (Ft. Meyers area I think)
www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

Off Shore (wsw of Tampa)
www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

Anna Maria, FL (by the bay)
www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

The water temps are RIPE in this area. 85 to 86 degrees. The eye is clearly defined and the storm is obviously expanding when you look at the latest IR loop.

www.intellicast.com...

Here is a water vapor loop. There is no dry air within about 400 miles of the center. The conditions look good for further development.

www.intellicast.com...

This water vapor loop has a little better definition in it than the last link.

weather.unisys.com...

Looking at this image I wonder if the storm will make it as far north as Tampa Bay. I'm guessing closer to Sarasota right now.

Edit:

Here is a Key West web cam.
www.fla-keys.com...


[edit on 8/13/2004 by Indy]

Well, we got one of the first outermost bands come through this morning, and it's still a ways away from us. But, if that band is any indication, not good....

Gusts were around 30mph, and this is hundreds of miles away yet. The newest track has it still heading right for us here in Tampa Bay, and latest sustained winds at 110mph, making it 1mph shy of a cat 3 (big whoop, 1mph) This was hours ago, so it's surely a cat 3 now, as the gulf temp is in the 80's.

We're battened down though, and we have metal awnings that can come down over the windows (working on that this morning). We've got some friends staying with us too, in lieu of going to a shelter, as they were in an evac zone. We went to get even more supplies last night, but no water anywhere. We have enough, but would have been nice for the extra safety margin. Plenty of food, alternative light sources, radio, etc. and lots of sterno/charcoal for cooking, so even when we lose power (when, not if) and water, we'll still be pretty good.

I'll let you know how things go as long as we have a connection, but it'll be sporadic, as I'm still doing last minute things to ensure our safety, and that of our guests. Right now.....just the calm before the storm.

I've only been through a cat 2 (Elena) and that sat offshore. Not sure what to expect, but preparing for the worst...

This storm is looking stronger by the hour, hope all is well for you Gazrok, you sound like you ready. My grandparents evacuated from Largo(just south of Clearwater) to my aunt's in Safety Harbor and they are having 2nd thoughts about not evacuating. The latest sattellite and radar show the storm going almost due north now which means the Tampa Bay area might get spared with it making landfall south of the Bay, only time will tell. I am glued to weather and will be all day and night, currently it is cloudy but calm and we are under a tornado watch, the covers all of Florida south of Cape Canaveral.

stay safe gazrok and also any of our members on the west coast, especially tampa. we had a feeder band or two pass thru early this morning, i woke up because of the wind blowing the rain against the window, sounded pretty nasty. right now its partly sunny but very windy in Fort Lauderdale, but they are expecting the weather to get a little nasty around midday. My only major concern for my area right now is this damn tornado watch and all the extra rain that we don't need. anyways stay safe and be prepared, it looks like it charley will pack a punch where ever it makes landfall.

Originally posted by Gazrok
I've only been through a cat 2 (Elena) and that sat offshore. Not sure what to expect, but preparing for the worst...

Then you remember how the bay rose to cover Bayshore Blvd. That 's purely due to its winds swirling CCW and pushing water up. That will be nothing if this one comes through the bay or just left of it. I plotted the 5AM coordinates and it looks to run right over Pinellas county. Not good for my brother (Feather Sound), worse for the rest of my family who will be east of that path and in the way of the rising bay and Alafia river.

My sister said the news last night said that TECO is planning proactive shutdowns of their grid. Makes sense since most of Tampa proper will be underwater tonight. No sense energizing the flooded streets with downed lines.

Here are some snaps from Accuweather Professional:

img.photobucket.com...

img.photobucket.com...

The arrows refer to storm vectors. Here is the storm table.

KEYW Storm Attributes Table

08/13/2004 13:42 - 32 STORMS DETECTED - TOP 20 Shown (SHOW MORE: 50 | 100 | ALL)

ID# AZM RNG DIR SPD TVS MESO PSH POH MXSZ VIL DBZ HGT TOP
T6 286 55 200 60 NONE UNCO 0 60 < 0.50 22 53 5.00 22.00
T7 209 18 195 43 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 16 53 6.80 16.60
Y2 295 12 186 55 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 11 52 8.00 12.90
I3 278 55 NEW NEW NONE 3DCO 0 20 < 0.50 7 51 15.90 27.20
D7 236 80 235 11 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 14 51 8.50 17.20

A5 26 77 156 26 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 14 51 7.90 16.20
T2 14 73 161 37 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 13 51 7.30 14.80
Q5 227 56 233 45 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 13 51 5.00 21.30
F3 307 16 186 53 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 9 51 2.70 16.60
G4 322 38 165 46 NONE UNCO 0 0 0.00 8 50 2.70 11.10
D3 316 22 182 50 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 12 50 5.80 14.70
V4 28 68 163 35 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 11 50 6.60 13.70
Z0 30 77 148 48 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 12 49 16.20 16.20
F5 342 84 142 52 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 11 49 9.10 17.80
U1 227 65 237 36 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 9 49 6.20 12.70
O0 6 79 153 32 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 9 49 8.30 16.90
S4 263 25 209 43 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 8 49 1.80 13.90
J1 283 54 NEW NEW NONE NONE 0 40 < 0.50 5 48 21.50 26.60
X9 218 89 237 24 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 10 48 10.00 19.50
T1 340 91 152 42 NONE NONE 0 0 0.00 10 48 10.30 19.70

Some info on this table from Accuweather:

What Is The Storm Attributes Table With Storm Timer(tm)?

The NEXRAD Doppler radar Storm Attributes Table shows information about the severity of specifically identified storms. The information in the table is generated solely by the NEXRAD radar. The NEXRAD radar also identifies and tracks individual thunderstorms. The StormTimer projects the movement of the storm. If the NEXRAD data analysis process has found no storms, the message "No Storms Detected" will appear in place of the Storm Information Table.

How Does The Storm Timer Tell Storm Movement?

The Storm Timer product predicts the movement of storms based on their current velocity (direction and speed). The arrow points in the current direction with each square at a set time (0, 15, 30, 45 minutes ahead) and the arrowhead representing the storm's destination in 60 minutes.

What Do Each Of The Storm Table Columns Mean (TVS, MESO, etc.)?

The colums in the Storm Information Table are explained as follows.

ID# (Identification Number) - The storm ID identifies individual storms that have been designated as such by the NEXRAD radar. Each Radar site assigns their own storm ID even though the same storm may be seen by two or more radars. The storm ID appears on the Storm Timer layer as a two letter code. Although there may be more ID's in the Storm Information Table, only the first 8 are marked on the Storm Timer layer because of clutter problems.

AZM (Azimuth) - The direction, in degrees from the radar site, in which the storm is located. Not to be confused with DIR (Direction) which is the direction from which the storm is moving.

RNG (Range) - The distance from the radar site to the identified storm in miles.

TVS (Tornadic Vortex Signature) - TVS or ETVS (Elevated Tornadic Vortex Signature) is a signature of a potential tornado indicated by the NEXRAD radar. NEXRAD will indicate "TVS" or "ETVS" if the rotational shear that has been calculated by the NEXRAD radar is judged strong enough that the storm may produce a tornado or "NONE" meaning no tornado vortex signature is detected (there is either no rotation or the rotational shear is not of sufficient strength to result in a tornado) as judged by the NEXRAD radar. The National Weather Service will issue tornado warnings based on the strength of the TVS or ETVS signature.

MESO (Mesocyclone) - MESO (Mesocylone identified), UNCO (Uncorrelated Shear (2-D) identified), or 3DCO (3-D Correlated Shear identified) will be present if the NEXRAD radar indicates rotation on a slightly larger scale then the TVS signature within a thunderstorm. Mesocyclones are the parent rotation for tornado development. Seen at the surface, a mesocyclone is the wall cloud in the southwest part of a supercell thunderstorm. NEXRAD will indicate "MESO", "3DCO" or "UNCO" if rotation has been detected or "NONE" if no rotation is detected.

PSH (Probability of Severe Hail) - This is the probability that the identified storm contains Hail that meets the National Weather Service's criteria for a "Severe Thunderstorm", which is a diameter of 3/4" or larger.

POH (Probability of Hail) - Stands for the probability of hail within a thunderstorm based on measurements from the NEXRAD radar. The probability of hail is used in conjunction with the probability of severe hail to provide information on the potential for hail damage.

MXSZ (Maximum Predicted Size Of Hail) - This is calcuated by the radar to provide a prediction of the maximum size of hail occurring in the identified storm at the time of observations.

VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) - Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) shows the amount of liquid water contained in a vertical column over each point on the display. The data is measured in kilograms per square meter, a measure of volume. The computer programs that create the Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) product use as their input the reflectivity data gathered from all the elevation angles surveyed during the volume scan (as is displayed in the four tilts of the Base Reflectivity product and the Composite Reflectivity product). The computer programs assume that all reflectivities are from liquid water and then use equations to convert the reflectivities to liquid water content. Hail has unusually high reflectivities (much higher than the largest raindrops) which can cause this product to overestimate the amount of liquid water actually contained in the clouds. For this reason, very high VIL values in thunderstorms are a good indication that hail may be occurring. VIL data is useful in distinguishing thunderstorms from rain showers. The thunderstorms will tend to have relatively higher VIL values, although the threshold VIL value for the difference between a rain shower and a thunderstorm will differ from one location to another, due to differences in atmospheric conditions and climate. Also, as thunderstorm development progresses, relative VIL values can help differentiate between strong thunderstorms that may be severe and thunderstorms that are not likely to be severe. However, VIL data must be used in conjunction with the other NEXRAD products and weather data other than radar data to determine the likelihood that a particular thunderstorm may produce severe weather. Furthermore, the relationship of VIL to the occurrence of severe weather is different and needs to be defined separately for different atmospheric conditions and climate regimes. The correlation that can be made using VIL data is that the precipitation areas with the highest VIL data levels are the strongest echoes within the radar's coverage area. For a line of thunderstorms (a squall line) examination of the VIL values can help determine which storms in the squall line are the strongest and have the highest potential for producing severe weather.

DBZ (Maximum dBZ Level) - This is defined as the maximum dBZ reading with in a storm as detected by NEXRAD radar. For more information on dBZ see here.

HGT (Maximum dBZ LevelHeight) - Height of the maximum dBZ or reflectivity, in thousands of feet. For example, 14.6 means the highest reflectivity level detected in the storm is at an altitude of 14,600 feet.

TOP (Storm Top) - Indicates the height of the top of the storm in thousands of feet above the radar's antenna. The NEXRAD computer typically gives the height of the top of the 30 dBz reflectivity which may not always correspond with the top of the storm's cloud. For example, an entry in the TOP column of 14.8 indicates the top of the 30 dBz reflectivity in the storm is at an altitude of 14,800 feet above the radar.

DIR (Direction) - The direction (in degrees) FROM which the identified storm was determined (by the radar) to be moving. Subtract 180 degrees to get the direction in which the storm is moving TO. Or, even better, just check the StormTimer, which shows arrows based on this direction information.

SPD (Speed) - The speed at which the identified storm was determined (by the radar) to be moving, in knots. This information is used to create the AccuWeather StormTimer.

and it looks to run right over Pinellas county

Pretty much sums it up...

Finished the rest, so now just sitting tight.... I figure in about 6 hours, we likely won't have power...

Update: max winds picked up by key west are 122 knots in the eastern side of the storm.

img.photobucket.com...

[Edit]: Changed max wind speed but have not uploaded new image.

[edit on 8/13/2004 by titian]

13,000 in South East florida, Dade and Broward counties without electricity, and we only had a few feeder bands pass thru. It's getting alot more windy out there now too as the storm is passing closer and more feeder bands are expected within the next few hours.

and Depression#4 has formed, so this hurricane season is getting busy in quite a hurry.

Anyone from the Orlando area? I have some friends down there that I can't get a hold of.

Storm just upgraded to Catagory 4 hurricane. My friends in the Tampa/St pete area (right next to the bridge that connects them) were planning to stay, now they are heading to a shelter. Apparenlty this is going to be one of the worse to hit a heavily populated area in a long time. Said the local news there is basically freaking out with this latest upgrade. Concern is it could even concievably hit catagory 5 by this evening.

Originally posted by Jonna
Anyone from the Orlando area? I have some friends down there that I can't get a hold of.

The satellite in the Orlando area doesn't look that bad yet....This recent upgrade was enough to make me call my family down in Tampa and make sure they are getting to safety tho, but I couldn't reach them either.

Well nativeokie, I hope they stayed. This was supposed to be the big one, the one we all dreaded. For many it was, but not the bay area. I feel like someone I don't even know took a bullet for me.

We had, get this.....NO bad weather, just a few sprinkles!!! And, according to the radar, we were only 10 MILES from the eyewall!!! Thing is, we were in the northwest quadrant of the storm. Thats where it wraps around the eye, so really, kind of a big nothing there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm thankful, and I'm glad we did the prep...but kind of like getting dressed up for nothing, you know? Still though, I'm glad I didn't go to Orlando, as I was originally thinking... Seems we have an invisible hurricane shield over the bay area. I thought it was the end of our luck streak, but I guess not. Friday 13th always has been a lucky day for me, hehe....

Looks like there are other storms soon on the way though. If the satellite pictures of the Atlantic are any indication, could have as many as three more on the way!!! Glad we stocked up....seems to be picking up steam after few storms this season....

There are already reports of several deaths in some of the towns that were hit. Right now, estimates are fairly low, mostly those in trailer parks who didn't evacuate. Had it gone through the population center of the bay area though, as a cat 4 hurricane, there'd have been dozens....

Well, today I'm taking the boards off the windows, opening the shutters back up, etc. They lifted the evac last night, so we took our friends home, had some dinner, and celebrated our luck.

Don't have many picks, as nothing really happened here, unless you want to see my battened down home, hehe....

My thoughts go out to those affected though...hope all is well with you and yours.

Well its monday. Like i said before, I live in Naples and i have friends in Punta Gorda, Charlotte county.

Its bad.

I have been without power since 2 PM Friday, so i went up to Punta Gorda to help people clean up and get food. It is a war zone. The news media isn't even showing half of what it is really like. My friends houses are gone, and one was a very new house, build 2 years ago. I litteraly someone holding their severd arm as they were hauld out of debris and taken to a hospital.
Speaking of hospitals all three in up there are close, to much damage.

I went to Homestead Fla. after Hurricane Andrew and I must say Charley was on par if not worse, because the damage was more wide spread.

Tonight I am going back up there with my local JayCee chapter to help some more. I you guys have any questions I'll do my best to answer them.

145 MPH winds. Not cool.