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Originally posted by redbarron626
Every link in your research is broken or not working except the wiki link to the comet??
What about the Great Flood of 1993? There was/is no data suggesting more earthquakes along the NMF. They said at the time that the 93 flood was a 500 year flood, in other words, a flood that happens only once in 500 years. If this type of flooding was the only one in the last 500 years or so, wouldn't that have triggered EQ's? I have lived in Missouri all my life and have family and friends in the New Madrid area. The only "strange" things anyone has seen recently are the governments ability to blow up perfectly good levees and the occasional sand spout that in reality happens more than reported.
1811 was the 11th session of Congress and 2011 started as the 111th session of Congress
Originally posted by waybehind
The Mississippi River flooded earlier this year but the Missouri River is the one that's flooding now, not the Mississippi.
Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by LDragonFire
There was flooding in 1823, his sources said it was bigger than 1811.
There was a comet in 1823 too....
Predictions usually occur as a result of some event supposed to be indicative of an earthquake occurring in the near future. Such an event may be a swarm of small earthquakes, increasing amounts of radon in local water, unusual behavior of animals, increasing size of magnitudes in moderate size events, or a moderate-magnitude event rare enough to suggest that it may be a foreshock.
Unfortunately, most such precursors frequently occur without being followed by an earthquake. This means that the forecast must be made in probabilistic terms. Estimates of such the probabilities seem to be no greater than one in three, to one in ten and hence the forecasts have low reliability. A succession of unreliable forecasts is likely to do more harm than good.
One might hope that before a major earthquake several such precursor would occur. This might increase the reliability of a forecast. An earthquake forecast was made in China several decades ago, based on small earthquakes and unusual animal activity. People were able to sleep outside of their homes and thus were spared when the main quake struck and caused widespread destruction.
However, unfortunately, many earthquakes are preceded by no precursory events whatsoever. The next large Chinese event was entirely unheralded and scores of thousands of Chinese died.