Hi and dont let the name fool you. I am open to all ideas. I have always been a believer in throw out the high and the low, or the far right and far
left, and somewhere in between your gonna have the average, or something that resembles the truth. I am also a believer, in that, history is some
form, does repeat itself. So it is important to study it and research it. May not happen the exact same way, but I am sure that physics and the
butterfly effect has many topics on this site and no reason to talk about that on an introduction board.
I have watched this board, off and on, for many of year. Decided to become a member for the above reasons. Now, as a disclaimer, I am not saying that
I am predicting or forecasting an earthquake of the New Madrid fault on what I am to post below. What I am doing is showing a past comparison of a
precedent set of similarities of the 1811-1812 to the 200th year anniversary of the great quake to this year going into 2011-2012. It goes as
With this image, Just thinking out loud here. Thinking of all the flooding lately, and the recent problem in Minot and the Missouri River that will
lead into the Mississippi. Plus recent rains that have swollen rivers that flow into the Mississippi River. So I looked at the area where those rivers
meet, and was kinda in the general area of the New Madrid Fault. Now just as a thinker, all that rainfall and extra water. Would or could all that
extra water cause compaction or compression on the soil adding extra pressure to the fault line? Like I said, just thinking out loud. Sort of like a
sponge, becomes heavier once you add a bunch of water to it.
So I did some researching and found this:
Heavy rain can trigger earthquakes
13:44 25 February 2008 by Catherine Brahic
Huge downpours of rain can trigger earthquakes in landscapes riddled with caves and channels by increasing pressure within underlying rock, suggests a
It was already known that rainfall could cause tremors, but the amount of water needed is much more than previously thought, says Steve Miller, a
geologist at the University of Bonn, Germany.
In recent years, geologists have documented small earthquakes that occurred after heavy rainfall in Germany, Switzerland and France. All were low in
magnitude - meaning they could be detected by seismographs, but not felt by humans.
Some experts have suggested that although the rainfall was heavy, the fact that rain could trigger an earthquake at all suggests that it takes
extremely little to produce a tremor. They concluded that the Earth's crust in a delicate balance, teetering on the edge of a slight shake-up at any
Now, in the new study, Miller disagrees, pointing out that all the three documented events happened in a specific type of landscape known as karst.
Other geologists studying rain-triggered earthquakes did note that they occurred in karst geology, but they did not delve into the possible
Karst landscape features a distinctive topography of soft carbonate rock riddled with deep fissures, underground channels and cave systems (see photo,
These characteristic features are carved out when carbonate bedrock - typically limestone or dolomite - is dissolved slowly by the action of slightly
acidic rainwater over thousands of years. And these structures, says Miller, are key.
On non-karst land surfaces, rainfall presses down on the Earth in a relatively uniform fashion, and is generally fairly swiftly carried away by
surface rivers and streams. As a result, the pressure of the rainfall on any underlying fault is small.
But in karst, rain pours into the channels and caves. It does not run off the rock but runs into it, like water running through a complex plumbing
network. As a result the pressure of the rain builds up inside the "pipes". And this, says Miller, is what is making rain trigger earthquakes.
He explains that increasing water pressure inside a rock is one of three ways to break it (squeezing and stretching the rock are the other two).
Water pressure acts like a hydraulic jack, pushing the rock apart and allowing the pieces to slide past each other. If this happens on a large scale
at a fault line, it can trigger an earthquake.
Previously, in 2006, Sebastian Hainzl of the University of Potsdam in Germany and colleagues studied two clusters of rain-triggered earthquakes, all
below 2.4 on the Richter scale, that occurred at Mount Hochstaufen in Germany in 2002.
The rainfall had been heavy: over 100 litres of water had pounded on each square metre of land during each deluge.
They calculated that the downpour caused a 300-pascal increase in pressure on a seismic fault beneath the mountain. "Three hundred pascals is very
little," says Hainzl's co-author Joachim Wassermann of Munich University, Germany.
The calculation led Hainzl to the conclusion that "the Earth's crust can be so close to failure that even tiny pressure variations associated with
precipitation can trigger earthquakes" (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027642).
Now, Miller has revisited data from the same event in Germany. His calculations, unlike Hainzl's, take into account the structure of the karst
By factoring in the stresses of the huge vertical pressure of water building up in the landscape's caves and internal channels on underlying rock, he
finds that the heavy rainfall at Mount Hochstaufen resulted in about one mega-pascal of additional pressure on the fault - 3000 times more than
"The reality is probably somewhere in between," says Wassermann.
Wassermann and his colleagues are continuing their studies of rain-triggered earthquakes by refining their observations and calculations and taking
the structure of the land into account, much as Miller has.
Journal reference: Geophysical Journal International (DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03735.x)
Now, I went digging some more for some more similar comparisons to this year and to 1811. According to past historical records, there were in 1811,
record amounts of rainfall and flooding in the same areas as this year and in about the same time, the month of June. Read below:
The Great Floods of St Louis
"THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.
part of the natural order of events that these great
rivers should discharge successively. But when, under
circumstances over which there exists no control, the
ordinary order of successive discharge is changed for
a simultaneous pouring out of all the tributaries, then
comes the "year of great waters," like 1785, 1811,
1823, 1826, 1844, 1858, and 1881. "
"There were high waters so as to overflow the low
grounds and fill the lakes and sloughs on the Ameri-
can Bottom at other seasons subsequent to 1785, but
none that deserve attention until that of 1811. It
was in the summer preceding the " shakes," as the
earthquakes were called. "
"The flood of 1811 was much greater than any that
followed until 1823,"
You can read the rest at :
Apparently there was a major flood in 1811 and occured in June of that year. As well as 1813 and again 1815 afterwards.
So we have a couple precedents for that. Now not only did we have just 3-4 weeks ago, an article came out how scientist were baffled of how quiet the
sun was when it should be in a very active period, also, the harsh winter Europe had just came off of. I had done some more digging and came up with
this historical reference. Note the author mentions the sun in a 13-year cycle and not the 11-yr cycle we are taught today:
"The most recent major cooling in Europe early in the 19th century, during the three weakest, prolonged (12 or 13 long) cycles of solar activity
(1798-1883). This cooling occured during the weakest, 13-year cycle of sunspots, from 1811 till 1823, during the absolute centennial minimum since
With regard to the Solar System, 1811 was a unique year, as at that time the Sun's distance from the centre of the Systems mass was the smallest (0.14
of the Sun's radius), and the Sun's acceleration was the highest (Boryczka, 1998)"
Just to throw this in, 1811 was the 11th session of congress and 2011 was the start of the 111th session of congress.
Also, 1811, tensions was heating up politcally and militarily with leading to the war of 1812. Just as tensions rising in 2011. Now if you want the
kicker. In 1811, there is what was know as the Great Comet of 1811. It was discovered in March and was seen with the naked eye for 260 days. And it
was at its brightest, yep you guessed it, mid-October.
So as of now so far:
Comparisons (weirdly) of whats going on now to 1811 of the great New Madrid earthquake.
1) Some type of great flooding or long period of heavy rainfall leading to large river rises occured. Like in 2011, it also occured in 1811 in the
month of June, in the same places.
2) 1811 was the 11th session of Congress and 2011 started as the 111th session of Congress
3) An article was published a couple weeks ago where scientist were baffled as to why the sun was going quiet, when it should of beginning its
maximum period. In 1811, it was quoted in the link above, 1811 was a unique year for the sun for its quiet period. Note: They tell us today its a 11
year cycle, the paper quoted a 13 year cycle)
4) Europe has just come off possibly the coldest winter in its history, same article above quoted the cooling of Europe in 1811, due to the suns
activity. We are still in facts.
5) In 1811, the new moon occured on Dec 15th, the morning of Dec 16th, the earthquake struck. In 2011, we have a new moon on Oct 11th. I will explain
why October shortly (speculation part, but also fact, not conspiracy, just head scratching).
6) Most geologist and scientist believe that most earthquakes occur during new and full moons. With new moons the most likely. But when you have new
and full moons on days that also equal their apogee or perigee, then you have a "supermoon", this is what some of them, Jim Berkland for example,
believe is the window for the most dangerous.
7) Stay with me here, no conspiracy, just facts and honest comparisons, with a little head scratching. Now, in Oct. we have a full moon on the 11th,
with the moon apogee on Oct 12th. We have a new moon on Oct 26th, but we also have the moon perigee on, yep, Oct 26th. Now, the JPL say that comet
Elenin will make its closest approach on Oct 16th. Right in the middle of the full and new moon and the apogee and perigee, leading up to the 26th
that is the new moon, perigee, and passing comet all on the same day. Not saying it means anything but kinda makes you wonder. If that doesnt, I will
entice you a bit more.
8) There was what is known as The Great Comet of 1811. Its was seen with the naked eye for 260 days. It was first noticed on March 25th, 1811, and
made its closest approach (estimated) but became its most brightest in mid-October.
9) The date of the strongest and first New Madrid quake was on a 16th and the closest approach of this already famous comet noone has even seen yet is
on a 16th. October 16th
So am I saying the New Madrid is going to have another major quake on Oct 26th? Sometime between Oct 11th and the 26th? NO, not predicting anything,
forecasting anything, just some research, a bit of history, and some strange comparisons, plus something to think about. Because, if anything, it is a
bit of odd repeat of history on the 200th anniversary.
Thanks for reading and thanks for allowing me to be a member
edit on 2-7-2011 by sdebunker because: (no reason given)