South Korea braced for North Korean 'provocation' as tension mounts

South Korea braced for North Korean 'provocation' as tension mounts

www.guardian.co.uk

South Korean military preparing new rules of engagement for troops as Seoul threatens tough response to any attack

Around the edge of the baseball field at Camp Bonifas, South Korean marines under the United Nations Command are busy building four bomb shelters.

The American and Korean troops at the camp are just 400 yards from the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) that has divided North from South Korea since the 1953 armistice. It has always been a tense place, ringed by razor wire and minefields, but now there is a particular urgency to the military spadework.

(visit the link for the full news article)

They are predictable and right on time as usual, as soon as Middle east get all the attention, they always get jealous and will start another provocation.

North Korea has carried out two major military attacks on the South in the past 15 months, and is widely believed in Seoul to be planning a third, in an attempt to extract diplomatic and economic concessions.

"So they will probably react. North Korea is not getting what they want [diplomatically] so they will probably use their usual trick of rising escalation.

"North Korea has been trying this peace offensive for the past seven months. Now is the time for the North Koreans to change their mode towards more a conflictual approach," a former South Korean official and government adviser predicted.

Also potentially:

North Korea's next move to grab Washington's attention may also come in another form, a third nuclear test.

And this time round it may get worse:

A South Korean counterattack would target not just the North Korean units involved in any future military action but command posts as far away as the North Korean capital. Officials in Seoul even talk of a future incident as "an opportunity" that would allow them to "restore" a working level of deterrence. But it is a high-risk strategy.

"We are now in the most dangerous moment in Korean history over the last 25 years," said Andrei Lankov, a Russian professor at Seoul's Kookmin University. "South Korea has already committed itself to a strong reaction to a future North Korean provocation so many times and so loudly that if they don't do it they will lose elections and be shamed.

www.guardian.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)

edit on 28-6-2011 by john124 because: (no reason given)

Nothings going to happen....move along...

reply to post by TheLogicalist


Hopefully nothing happens...

"Both sides are afraid of war and if they see that the probability is real they will go to a lot of highly humiliating concessions to prevent it," Lankov said.

"That is because North Korea knows that it is going to lose, and South Korean knows it is going to win but at a cost that is unacceptable, and it doesn't know what to do if it does win."

This is news? Hell I've been expecting a new NKorean provocation for several months now.

If America doesn't approve food aid, the decision is due soon, you'll see a provocation.

A nuclear test or a missile test. Nothing much serious.

The South Korean military is meanwhile preparing new rules of engagement for its frontline troops which would allow it to respond "robustly" to an attack without immediately consulting the government in Seoul.

This is several months old news. They are not preparing anything. It's already in effect.

A South Korean counterattack would target not just the North Korean units involved in any future military action but command posts as far away as the North Korean capital.

This is dangerous because of the political situation in the South AND in the North... Elections in the South... and transfer of power in the North.

However, some observers doubt whether South Korea's political leaders and military commanders, when the moment came, would actually order a response that risked triggering a full-scale war. "I don't know if there is real political will," the former official said. "The new order being given to commanders is 'shoot first and then call' [Seoul]. But I don't know if the field commanders will shoot.

Yep... they probably won't do it. Too costly economically.

"Both sides are afraid of war and if they see that the probability is real they will go to a lot of highly humiliating concessions to prevent it," Lankov said.

"That is because North Korea knows that it is going to lose, and South Korean knows it is going to win but at a cost that is unacceptable, and it doesn't know what to do if it does win."

+1

reply to post by Vitchilo

Yep... they probably won't do it. Too costly economically.

North Korea is in terrible shape economically. But that is one of the reasons I think they will probably attack south Korea within the next year or so. IMO North Korea has been getting more and more desperate, the sanctions against them have so effected the people (who have already been extremely indoctrinated) that at the call to war they will be ready and willing.

I believe they will realize the only choices they have are to..

1: reconcile with SK (which would be admitting defeat) and begin a massive political reform towards democracy. Or

2: Attempt to take SK through force.

I really hope this does not happen. All we need is another excuse for the US to go to war for an ally (again).

Originally posted by john124

They are predictable and right on time as usual, as soon as Middle east get all the attention, they always get jealous and will start another provocation.

Just so we're clear and on the same page.You are refering to the UN right ?

Originally posted by TheLogicalist
Nothings going to happen....move along...

I totally had to LOL at this
I said the same exact thing when the first plane hit on 9/11
I still say it all the time but I was wrong that day..

North Korea won't go to war without the blessing and protection of China so that is where the focus needs to be if your trying to figure out what's going on.

I don't see China supporting a war with South Korea at this time but they may throw their weight behind getting some of the concessions done for North Korea.

reply to post by kro32


Thats a very good point.

Thinking about it, what is the possibility of North Korea joining the PRC after Kim Jong-ill dies? I think they might, due to their poor economic situation. It would be the only choice other than succumbing to democracy or going to war.

It might even be something that China really wants. They have wanted control over the Korean Peninsula for almost 100 years.

North Korean army is starving, how could it possibly go to war?

Footage shot inside North Korea and obtained by the ABC has revealed the extent of chronic food shortages and malnutrition inside the secretive state.

www.abc.net.au...

reply to post by Openeye


It's a possiblity I suppose but I have to ask myself why North Korea hasn't joined by this point. Obviously it would be their leaders opposition to it and his son who's poised to take over is a complete idiot from what i've read so this is an interesting scenario.

Not sure what effect this would have in regards to South Korea however since if China really wanted the Korean country's there's nothing stopping them now. Either way they risk open war with America and they certainly stand more to lose by doing that then they would gain from the aquisition of South Korea.

I could definetly see them bringing North Korea into the fold however. Good point

reply to post by bestintentions


With help from China it is more than possible. Like I states in one of my above posts, they are getting to the point where they have almost nothing to lose.

So I think its going to be a war of desperation if there is one.

reply to post by Openeye


It is also interesting to note that their military hardware is not being replaced on a continuous basis meaning it is slowly degrading reducing their effectiveness if open conflict happens.

www.globalfirepower.com...

While they have alot of hardware it's getting to the point of use it or lose it. South Korea is much more well maintained so I think if they are going to take action it would be sooner rather than later. They simply don't have the money to keep it state of the art.

The only scenario I see for them is a mass rush into South Korea and holding it long enough to sue for peace and concessions from the western powers. If things are really getting desperate in the north than this may likely happen.

Although North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has spent a week-long trip to his closest ally China, and 'sealed their alliance in blood', China does not seem to be interested in war.

www.abc.net.au...

China opposes any act undermining peace of Korean Peninsula

news.xinhuanet.com...

reply to post by kro32


It looks like they are not confident enough yet to try to push right through SK. That might be why they have done some questionable things lately, to try and edge SK and the US into becoming the aggressor which might convince the PRC to supply aid if not full military support.

I have also heard rumors (by no means from official sources) that the military in NK may stage a coup upon Kim Jong-ils death and attempt to reach out to SK and re-initiate the reunification process. I really hope this happens, I have wanted to see a unified Korea for a long time.

I have also heard rumors (by no means from official sources) that the military in NK may stage a coup upon Kim Jong-ils death and attempt to reach out to SK and re-initiate the reunification process. I really hope this happens, I have wanted to see a unified Korea for a long time.

so do I !! and i do think there is a good chance.

reply to post by Openeye


That is a very possible scenario. But militarily I don't know of anyone who believes that South Korea could stop the North if they launch a full scale attack. How long they can hold the land before reinforcements arrive is another matter but the actual push into the south shouldn't be a problem.

reply to post by kro32


Yeah I agree. They would walk all over SK. I think they know they can take the whole country, however any nation knows that if you mess with a US ally (especially one we have a permanent military presence in) your going to get messed up.

I mean the US pacific fleet would be there within a day.

If an army of 3 million just across your border is stealing food to eat every day,just how long do you think "peace" is going to last