Sabato: GOP Likely to Take Back Senate

Link

Sabato forecasts Republicans will keep their seats in North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska. And he thinks the GOP has a good chance to snag Democratic-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Wins in all those races would give Republicans 54 seats in the Senate.

In addition, the GOP has a shot at Democratic seats in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, West Virginia, and Hawaii, Sabato says. Wins in six of those races would give Republicans a filibuster-proof 60-seat presence.

California, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington are all locks for the Democrats in 2012. Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming are all locks for the Republicans in 2012. Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, and North Dakota are almost guaranteed for the Republicans as well, that would be a pick-up of one (North Dakota). If Republicans do good in the election they should win over Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wisconsin, all of which should not be too difficult. Should the GOP do very well in the election then you could add Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

If the Republicans nominate Moderate to Moderate-Conservatives in Connecticut, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia then all of those elections would be very competitive and basically toss-up. But if they nominate very conservative candidates like they did in 2010 which cost them the Senate (Christine O'Donnell, Ken Buck, Sharron Angle) then their gains could be limited to only a few Senate seats rather than a potential dozen.

Good candidates such as Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, and Mark Kirk are examples of moderate candidates who can win liberal states and should be encouraged nationwide. If the GOP seeks to have ideological purity they will soon find themselves in a small minority. Americans do not want either party to be purely ideological, each of the two should allow candidates of many stripes into their party nominations so long as they are good strong candidates.

reply to post by Misoir


The scary thing is that most people do want a highly partisan official to run for an office. Just as Democrats love what Obama is doing, Republicans would be very happy with a far right president, senator, congressman, etc. The party that loses the election is fond of a moderate, not the party that voted the moderate in.

Give me someone that will stop bombing sovereign nations, remove our military from the 120 or so nations we're not currently at war with, rip up the Patriot Act, abolish the Federal Reserve and IRS. Those must be dealt with ASAP.

Other items, like Social Security, Medicare, the EPA, Department of Education, et al, I feel can be taken care of slowly and carefully.

Give us that person and America will prosper again.

/TOA

reply to post by The Old American


Ohhhh, you mean Ron Paul