Sabato forecasts Republicans will keep their seats in North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska. And he thinks the GOP has a good chance to
snag Democratic-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Wins in all those races would give Republicans 54 seats in the Senate.
In addition, the GOP has a shot at Democratic seats in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, West Virginia, and Hawaii,
Sabato says. Wins in six of those races would give Republicans a filibuster-proof 60-seat presence.
California, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington are all locks for the Democrats in 2012. Mississippi, Tennessee,
Texas, Utah, and Wyoming are all locks for the Republicans in 2012. Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, and North Dakota are almost
guaranteed for the Republicans as well, that would be a pick-up of one (North Dakota). If Republicans do good in the election they should win over
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wisconsin, all of which should not be too difficult. Should the GOP do very well in the
election then you could add Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
If the Republicans nominate Moderate to Moderate-Conservatives in Connecticut, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
and West Virginia then all of those elections would be very competitive and basically toss-up. But if they nominate very conservative candidates like
they did in 2010 which cost them the Senate (Christine O'Donnell, Ken Buck, Sharron Angle) then their gains could be limited to only a few Senate
seats rather than a potential dozen.
Good candidates such as Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, and Mark Kirk are examples of moderate candidates who can win liberal states and should be
encouraged nationwide. If the GOP seeks to have ideological purity they will soon find themselves in a small minority. Americans do not want either
party to be purely ideological, each of the two should allow candidates of many stripes into their party nominations so long as they are good strong
edit on 6/26/2011 by Misoir because: (no reason given)