Solar Climate Change: Public Warning for 27th June 2nd July- Piers Corbyn

Originally posted by kro32

Because I know geology and there is no scientific evidence in the slightest that solar activity has any effect on earthquakes whatsoever.

Do you know the amount of solar anything it would take to move something the size of one of the earths plates. It is simply not possible.

You are in for a RUDE awakening... In fact sir you are completely wrong. There are tons of research that point to the fact that Solar activity does increase earthquake and volcanic/magmatic activity on Earth.

Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes
Simpson, John F.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 3, p. 417-425.

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.
DOI: 10.1016/0012-821X(67)90071-4

adsabs.harvard.edu...

Annales Geophysicae (2003) 21: 597–602
c European Geosciences Union 2003

High-energy charged particle bursts in the near-Earth space as
earthquake precursors
S. Yu. Aleksandrin1, A. M. Galper1, L. A. Grishantzeva1, S. V. Koldashov1, L. V. Maslennikov1, A.M. Murashov1,
P. Picozza2, V. Sgrigna3, and S. A. Voronov1
1Space Physics Institute, Moscow State Engineering Physics Institute, Kashirskoe shosse 31, 115409 Moscow, Russia
2Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Rome ”Tor Vergata” and INFN Sez. Rome2, via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, I–00133 Rome, Italy
3Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Rome ”Roma Tre”, via della Vasca Navale, 84, I–00146 Rome, Italy
Received: 21 July 2001 – Revised: 21 May 2002 – Accepted: 11 July 2002

Abstract. The experimental data on high-energy charged
particle fluxes, obtained in various near-Earth space experiments
(MIR orbital station, METEOR-3, GAMMA and
SAMPEX satellites) were processed and analyzed with the
goal to search for particle bursts. Particle bursts have been selected
in every experiment considered. It was shown that the
significant part of high-energy charged particle bursts correlates with seismic activity. Moreover, the particle bursts are observed several hours before strong earthquakes; L-shells of particle bursts and corresponding earthquakes are practically the same. Some features of a seismo-magnetosphere connection model, based on the interaction of electromagnetic emission of seismic origin and radiation belt particles, were considered.

Key words. Ionospheric physics (energetic particles,
trapped; energetic particles, precipitating; magnetosphereionosphere
interactions)

hal.archives-ouvertes.fr...

ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON
SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES:
LONG-TERM FORECAST
*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)
It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic
and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been
made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic
activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for
the period 2012-2015.

[url=http://www.khalilov.biz/pdf/About%20possible%20influence%20of%20solar%20activity%20upon%20seismic%20and%20volcanic%20activities%203.pdf]Link[/url ]

BTW, if you want to know who Elchin Khalilov (Khalilov E.N.) is here are a few facts that anyone can corroborate...

Dr.Prof. Elchin Khalilov (Azerbaijani: Elçin Xəlilov (born On April, 26th 1959, Baku, Azerbaijan) is a famous scientist in the sphere of geodynamics, seismology and tectonics.

en.wikipedia.org...

Solar activity and global seismicity of the earth

Journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics
Publisher Allerton Press, Inc. distributed exclusively by Springer Science+Business Media LLC
ISSN 1062-8738 (Print) 1934-9432 (Online)
Issue Volume 71, Number 4 / April, 2007
Category Proceedings of the XXIX All-Russia Conference on Cosmic Rays
DOI 10.3103/S1062873807040466
Pages 593-595
Subject Collection Physics and Astronomy
SpringerLink Date Wednesday, May 16, 2007

S. D. Odintsov1, G. S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi1 and K. Georgieva2

(1) Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow oblast, 142190, Russia
(2) Laboratory of Solar—Terrestrial Coupling, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sophia, Bulgaria


Abstract Results of studying the character and possible succession of cause-effect relations (in going from a disturbance source on the Sun to a response in the lithosphere in the range of periods from several days to the 11-year solar cycle) have been presented. It has been indicated that the maximum of seismic energy, released from earthquake sources in the 11-yr cycle of sunspots, is observed during the phase of cycle decline and lags 2 yr behind the solar cycle maximum. It has been established that the maximum in the number of earthquakes directly correlates with the instant of a sudden increase in the solar wind velocity.

Original Russian Text © S.D. Odintsov, G.S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi, K. Georgieva, 2007, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Fizicheskaya, 2007, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 608–610.

www.springerlink.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Next time instead of just claiming you are a geologist and you know better do some real research instead.

Originally posted by Pilot
reply to post by Phage

 

Lately it seems like the entire globe ought to be on alert for something!

Don't pay attention to Phage, some of us have been showing what REAL scientists have been and are saying, and that there would be an increase in earthquake and volcanic/magmatic activity worldwide and Phage claimed, and obviously is still claiming "nothing is going to happen and all it's normal"... And then he claims he has been right...

BTW, I am not saying that Corbyn must be right, but to keep watch just in case he is right, which he could be.
We don't have a long time to wait anyway.

Just a quick comment - University of London? That includes every college in the University of London, so it's a bit random. For some real credential power, I'd take "Imperial College London", "King's College London', University college london, etc.

reply to post by purplemer


I have to support kro32 in this particular case. We have had at least 2 members of ATS look at any correlation between solar activity and earthquakes and basically there is none.

I would be very interested to find some evidence of this is as I subscribe to the Electric Universe theories for the most part and these would suggest that there may be a link.

One of the major problems here is that the earthquakes being talked about (Mag 6-6.9) happen every couple of days anyway so it is not very difficult to make a prediction of a mag 6 somewhere in the world in a one week period. Damn, even I can do that!

I have not looked at what he predicted as far as the Japan earthquake goes, but I very much doubt that it was an accurate prediction of the magnitude and place. That earthquake took all the experts by surprise. It was not even in the area that the Japanese Met Office was expecting 'the big one' - which they are still expecting.

Piers should stick to weather predictions. He is good at that.

Unless we do get a 6+ in the next few (12) hours I am afraid his prediction is a failure, and even if we do - well we have not had one for several days - in fact since the 26th so we are well overdue for one.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

and that there would be an increase in earthquake and volcanic/magmatic activity worldwide

Can you direct me to where REAL scientists are saying this, because it basically is not the case and I am not aware of any REAL scientists saying it. There is a period of slightly increased activity in terms od earthquakes from the 70s up to now, but this activity is way below the 1960s in terms of energy release which spawned the largest earthquakes in the world. (1957, 1960, 1964). In terms of volcanism there are about the same number of volcanoes active now that there are normally in any given year.

The current earthquake level will drop off again as we go past the top of what I consider to be a 30 to 40 year activity cycle. More of that later.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


Further more by the way, quite aside from the fact that this research is demonstrably wrong (scientists respected or otherwise do not always get it right), the solar cycle is declining therefore according to that premise there should be fewer earthquakes yet in a very low period of solar activity we have had a 9.

No sorry, epic fail on the part of those scientists who have failed to look outside their data. It is easy to correlate earthquakes to solar data - I can do that. What I cannot do is relate earthquake activity that happens when there is not solar activity, and they have failed to do that. Phage has an excellent analogy of this. You should ask him to produce it.

I see he did

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Well the guy seems to be very good with long range forecasting.
He predicted the last two severe winters here in the UK when the BBC or anyone else didn`t have a clue.

reply to post by PuterMan


Not to question what you are saying, because you know a TON more than I do about earthquakes. But, I wanted to throw this out there.

On the 24th of June, when we had a CME, I believe, there was some activity on quite a few of the seismographs in this area. See link HERE - USGS Seismographs

The very first one in VA shows activity and most of them on listed show activity for the 24th. Is there at least some connection?? I could be way off base here, but there seems to be quite a bit of activity. And USGS does not show any activity except an EQ in South Carolina on the 24th.




Interesting that it is showing as far away as Columbus, OH (862 km) and it was only a 2.3?? And what is more interesting is that the helicorder plots show more significantly in VA than South Carolina?? Could be very wrong on this, but look...

How did I ever miss this thread about my dear friend Piers?*

Originally posted by PuterMan

One of the major problems here is that the earthquakes being talked about (Mag 6-6.9) happen every couple of days anyway so it is not very difficult to make a prediction of a mag 6 somewhere in the world in a one week period. Damn, even I can do that!

And there you have summed up exactly how Piers Corbyn does his forecasts.

Like most charlatans he's learnt how to word his predictions in such a way that whilst appearing to the uninitiated to be very specific, they are actually extremely vague - to the point (in the case of his monthly weather forecasts) of being totally useless. After all, when was the last time there was a day when no big thunderstorms occurred in North America?

Some may also find this of interest regarding one of his more notable 'misses' - one which nonetheless he still claimed was a highly accurate forecast!

weatherearthnews.blogspot.com...

And when even Piers can't reinterpret his forecast and manipulate the facts to prove a 'hit' he just resorts to pseudo-science mumbo-jumbo and promises that this has been incorporated into his new advanced super SLTv74b (solar lunar technique version 74b) meaning he'll be even more accurate next time.



* note: sarcasm. He, er, doesn't actually like me very much. Dunno why?

reply to post by lambros56


No he didn't.

But he did predict the severe flooding in London in August 2007.

(think about it )

And having seen that it was going to be cold in December 2010 he did then go on to predict that January and February would also be extremely cold. Of course, Feb was one of the warmest on record ...... Oops, didn;t see that coming Piersy, did you?

reply to post by MountainEnigma


The big signature on those is the 3.09 in Alaska coming through.

The other looks like normal weather patterns to me.

Don't get me wrong here. I have proven that solar activity can affect the seismograms and that in some areas can make huge patterns on them, but these are not earthquakes. They are effects on the transmission of the data. I have even matched the magnetometer readings to the seismograms and demonstrated that they are the same signals. This however shows no connection to earthquakes as such other than coincidental happenstance. (A scientific term for "You got lucky chap!")

Edit to add: KMSC BHZ (the last seismogram) is showing definite weather signs, but I think that also might be registering solar activity, but nothing seismic there other than the mess at the top which is Alaska.

You know what? i'm getting tired of the doom and gloom on ATS!!!!!

I'm tried of the opinions in the editorial section of the newspaper. Give me the news. That's all I want. I don't want your opinions. Opinions can have all their facts right and still be wrong. They can have all their facts wrong and still be right. So shut up already and give me what I asked for not more blowhards!

Tjhis site is not much different than that. Sijimarly is retarded or something.

This site is like a institution for the paranoid and confused. Most of this is BS. We'd all be much better off reading a science magazine. All of the news in there is up to date and good. It's forward looking. It won't make you bleak and hide in the corner in a shadow waiting for the guys in dark suits to take you away. I think everyone is addicted to fear and mystery because their real lives don't keep them interested or they're trying to escape from it. So the problem is they need to fix their real lives, not the perceived dangers and threats they've created in their minds.

If the end of hte world happens then take it like a man! Live your goddamn life now, not after you're dead. This fear will never go away! The mysteries never end! So you won't live, ever...

There's a universe out there and inside us. W're too busy with our fears and chasing after ghosts to notice. All the while time slips away and before you know it you're a pile of bones...

Some reality here:
spectrum.ieee.org...

Ain't that interestin? It's better than 99% of the bunk that passes for 'quality' on this site.

reply to post by jonnywhite

We'd all be much better off reading a science magazine. All of the news in there is up to date and good. It's forward looking.

Really? Actually I find that these days the scientists are well into the business of doom and gloom, and that is why it is in the media.

On ATS it gets reported, and it gets dissected and analysed and very often thrown out. This thread. for example, is about the predictions of a weatherman - guess what - a scientist. Since I tend to stick to the fragile earth forum as that is where my interests lie, I can't speak about the other forums but I would say that mostly we eventually arrive at the truth in fragile earth, and often it goes against what the 'scientists' say.

Science magazines are not up to date by any means and not all good either. Scientists are not all up to date either and all science publications suffer from dogma and the need to provide a living for the family of the scientist, which suppresses freedom of thought.

No, you will actually find much more accurate ideas theories and information on ATS than you will in any science magazine and at least amongst the doom and gloom you will also find the truth if you wish to see it.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by jonnywhite

 

We'd all be much better off reading a science magazine. All of the news in there is up to date and good. It's forward looking.

Really? Actually I find that these days the scientists are well into the business of doom and gloom, and that is why it is in the media.

On ATS it gets reported, and it gets dissected and analysed and very often thrown out. This thread. for example, is about the predictions of a weatherman - guess what - a scientist. Since I tend to stick to the fragile earth forum as that is where my interests lie, I can't speak about the other forums but I would say that mostly we eventually arrive at the truth in fragile earth, and often it goes against what the 'scientists' say.

Science magazines are not up to date by any means and not all good either. Scientists are not all up to date either and all science publications suffer from dogma and the need to provide a living for the family of the scientist, which suppresses freedom of thought.

No, you will actually find much more accurate ideas theories and information on ATS than you will in any science magazine and at least amongst the doom and gloom you will also find the truth if you wish to see it.

Doom and gloom is in the media. Scientists have answers and gloom/doom is not their business. Science is about observing and understand the universe, it's not about creating fear and mystery. The media focuses too much on those things and forgets that its role is just to report the news. We'd all be happier people if we were more like scientists and focused more on observing and understand then on creating sh** to cause sensationalism or chaos.

reply to post by jonnywhite

Some reality here:

Yes indeed and as you say interesting. Why did you edit to add that after I has replied to you?

By the way if you really think that scientists don't paint pictures of doom and gloom, how about eggs, butter, climate change, algal bloom, CO2 etc etc. It is not all interesting stuff, and like Piers Corbyn, the subject of this thread, they also do preach doom and gloom.

reply to post by PuterMan


True. But I wouldn't compare a scientist with the likes of PC It's like comparing Jimi Hendrix with a 5 year old trying to play a recorder for the first time and not doing very well at at

reply to post by Essan


Ha Ha Essan! Anyway whatever he is, one thing is for sure - he is wrong.

The window has passed and the earthquakes has not happened despite - as mentioned by Spaceweather - that there was a 30% to 40% chance of us being hit by a MILD solar flare.

I guess you are not tot taken with Mr Corbyn and his predictions then!
(Yes I did see your web page)

reply to post by PuterMan


Lets just say that Piers and I don't exactly see eye to eye. On everything

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by Essan

 

Ha Ha Essan! Anyway whatever he is, one thing is for sure - he is wrong.

The window has passed and the earthquakes has not happened despite - as mentioned by Spaceweather - that there was a 30% to 40% chance of us being hit by a MILD solar flare.

I guess you are not tot taken with Mr Corbyn and his predictions then!

(Yes I did see your web page)

edit on 2/7/2011 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

i dont know if it counts of not, but there was is a large volcano going off in Indonesia.. Started on the second, so in the correct time frame...

Officials have established an 8-kilometer exclusion zone around Mount Soputan in South Minahasa, North Sulawesi, after the volcano erupted Sunday morning. The eruption started around 6 a.m. Sunday, not long after the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center (PVMBG) increased the volcano's status from "caution" to "alert" - one step below the most serious level of "danger", according to Surono, the government's top volcanologist. “Mt. Soputan has erupted 6,000 meters into the air and has sent searing clouds moving westward,” Surono said in a text message sent to tempointeraktif.com.

www.thejakartapost.com...