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Silver could hit $150 this year

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posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 04:39 PM
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Silver could hit $150 this year





"I own silver, but if it keeps going up, it could turn into a problem if it goes parabolic," If it hit $150 it would look "very dangerous" says Jim Rogers.

"I do not have any prices in my targets. If suddenly World War III breaks out, then I would not sell silver at $200 this year. So it depends on what is happening and what is causing this," he said.

"I certainly hope silver goes down for a while. If it goes down, I hope I would buy more, and if it goes up too much too fast, then I have to sell."


jimrogers-blog.blogspot.com...

 




posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 04:51 PM
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I think don't that Silver hitting $150 is likely to happen.

There's a new law going into effect in July that makes it illegal for people living in the US to trade in Gold or Silver.

Sounds to me like TPTB are taking the bull by the horns so to speak.

Read about it here...
Gold/Silver OTC trading illegal for US residents after July 15, 2011?
edit on 19-6-2011 by LazyGuy because: wording change for clarity



posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 05:03 PM
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the july 15 law will never stick

the streets would burn the next day



silver will hit 150 by years end

and by april of next year be at maybe 135

it will go to over 175 before it stabilizes and correct itself to a new high of 165 + or - a few



posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 05:05 PM
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Originally posted by LazyGuy
I think don't that Silver hitting $150 is likely to happen.

There's a new law going into effect in July that makes it illegal for people living in the US to trade in Gold or Silver.

Sounds to me like TPTB are taking the bull by the horns so to speak.

Read about it here...
Gold/Silver OTC trading illegal for US residents after July 15, 2011?
edit on 19-6-2011 by LazyGuy because: wording change for clarity


Please show me this law. Did you read it? I believe it pertains to OTC leveraged derivitives of 10:1 or more.

If silver hits $150 an ounce this year and gold rises respectively you would likely see a full collapse of the economy.



posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 05:57 PM
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Originally posted by QuantumDisciple
Please show me this law. Did you read it? I believe it pertains to OTC leveraged derivitives of 10:1 or more.

If silver hits $150 an ounce this year and gold rises respectively you would likely see a full collapse of the economy.


I didn't know that you could get leveraged derivitives OTC. I thought you had to have a prescription.

OTC does mean Over The Counter right?

I provided a link to an ATS thread where there's plenty of info on the subject in my OP.
If you want more remember that Google is our friend...
www.google.com...

I seriously doubt that TPTB are going to let a little thing like the Silver & Gold markets topple the economy.
They may want to bankrupt the US, but they don't want the World economy to be taken down with it.



edit on 19-6-2011 by LazyGuy because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 06:06 PM
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reply to post by LazyGuy
 


In finance OTC has a meaning of it's own.

OTC Finance
I dont usually use wiki but it should suffice.

This act also included oil. Do you think you will no longer be able to buy oil at the gas station?

I will say that the language use of OTC does concern me. The fact that Barney Frank had a hand in the Act has me concerned as well. This is something to keep an eye on. My gut tells me they used the term OTC to test the reaction of the people or to numb people so if they do want to stop the physical market they can allude to OTC as a play on words.
edit on 19-6-2011 by QuantumDisciple because: (no reason given)

edit on 19-6-2011 by QuantumDisciple because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 10:28 PM
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reply to post by LazyGuy
 


Dont fear-monger. The law only applies to highly leveraged paper markets like the XAU. While this law shows that they are trying to ween out those in the precious metals market, it by no means prohibits the sale of precious metals in the U.S. Although that day IS coming, but maybe not for another year (or less).

I do agree with Rogers assertion about the silver price. My own target for (physical) silver by years end is between $120 and $150. I have cataloged the reasons why in my thread here:



To your second point about the price of silver by the end of the year let me say this: It is a very tough call. The reason is that once silver is solidly past the $50 mark (probably around $55) there will be nearly no one selling silver because no one ever has bought it for higher than $50. This will cause the silver short squeeze out into the open, and the price will skyrocket. It is impossible to tell where it will stop because this is a once in a lifetime phenomena. Where ever it does stop will be the new floor for silver, and it will not be as low as it is now for at least the next 50 years.

Let me also say that my predictions are based on the physical price of silver (not spot). If spot price is $35 but retailers are selling a monster box for $50/ounce, then the real price is $50. Although once JP Morgan implodes the spot price will probably sync up again with the physical

So my prediction is that the price will be around $120-150 an ounce by the end of Q4.

But again, picking that number is near impossible, its like trying to count all the stars in the sky. You know there are a lot, but you can never get an accurate count


Jp Morgan will default on it's silver contracts by August 5, 2011



posted on Jun, 19 2011 @ 11:46 PM
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$150?

Really?

A 400% increase?
This would make Gold approx $6,100.00 /oz

If silver hits $150 the price of shiny metal coins will be the least of your worries.
And I assure you.. if the economy collapses and only those with shiny coins are left with real wealth you couldn't possibly trade with it .. I think at that point the last thing you want to advertise to a population of millions of desperately poor people is that you have even the perception of wealth.


Put it into perspective..
From 2005-2011 Gold has increased 300% .. and it took the single worst financial calamity along with the largest inflation methods ever undertaken by the Reserve to get that result. To add an additional 400% increase would mean a massive debasing of the currency, leading to price inclines across the economic spectrum of 100-200% .. Gasoline would cost $12.00/g bread and milk and other staples would be to expensive to buy. Wages wouldn't rise with the inflation creating a deflationary spiral sending the economy in a tailspin. We would have to see a credit crunch twice as bad as 2008, we would have to see capital infusion 3x what the fed did in 2008-2009. And these would be conservative estimates.. in short, even approaching these types of price fluctuation would result in a total, complete, systematic failure of the entire global economy.
edit on 6/19/2011 by Rockpuck because: (no reason given)


Not to mention if you actually look at spot prices from 2000-2011 you can see an obvious run on silver or perhaps institutionalized manipulation especially from mid-2010 to now. Blatantly. I would say right now the real value of silver somewhere around $18-20/oz
edit on 6/19/2011 by Rockpuck because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 12:10 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


I agree 150 seems unlikely. I think that silver is no longer entirely related with hedging against inflation. China has been buying up silver for industrial use. Silver is used in an array of green technologies, and top end electronics. Silver could begin to be a mix of a rare earth metal, and an investment against inflation.

The manipulation is definitely real, but I think it is keeping the price artificially low. The crash from 50 to 34 was due to overnight margin changes. Once the Hong Kong exchange gets going, and if the morg cannot short both gold and silver simultaneously we could see a move up. 150 though is extremely optimistic by any indication.



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 12:52 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 





From 2005-2011 Gold has increased 300% .. and it took the single worst financial calamity along with the largest inflation methods ever undertaken by the Reserve to get that result. To add an additional 400% increase would mean a massive debasing of the currency, leading to price inclines across the economic spectrum of 100-200% .. Gasoline would cost $12.00/g bread and milk and other staples would be to expensive to buy.


I don't know where you are looking but we are having massive debasement in our currency right now! It is very possible, look how fast the German Hyperinflation took off. We may last longer than them because we are the world currency but it will happen


But you have to understand, Silver is FAR more manipulated than Gold. Although it is 14 times more plentiful in the Earth's crust, Right now it is valued at about 35:1.




Not to mention if you actually look at spot prices from 2000-2011 you can see an obvious run on silver or perhaps institutionalized manipulation especially from mid-2010 to now. Blatantly. I would say right now the real value of silver somewhere around $18-20/oz


Not to mention adjusting for inflation, in which case silver would be at about $142

if you are talking about paper spot price I agree, but the physical metal will be far higher than $50



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 01:03 AM
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reply to post by stephinrazin
 





I agree 150 seems unlikely. I think that silver is no longer entirely related with hedging against inflation. China has been buying up silver for industrial use. Silver is used in an array of green technologies, and top end electronics. Silver could begin to be a mix of a rare earth metal, and an investment against inflation.


All of these reasons point to silver getting much higher! You are correct, it is a hybrid metal: used for industrial purposes and as a precious metal




The manipulation is definitely real, but I think it is keeping the price artificially low. The crash from 50 to 34 was due to overnight margin changes. Once the Hong Kong exchange gets going, and if the morg cannot short both gold and silver simultaneously we could see a move up. 150 though is extremely optimistic by any indication.


I think you are underestimating the impact high inflation and JP Morgans huge shortage of silver combined. You should really take a look at the thread in my signature



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 02:10 PM
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reply to post by stephinrazin
 


Artificially low? Really?

Silver traded for $4/oz before the 2000 recession, before we debased the currency by 25%+ from 2000-2007 and from there it only shot higher due to further monetary debasing. Metals are relative to a currency's strength, because the Dollar weakens the metals increase but their actual "value" never changes minus supply and demand (which in metals is minuscule). The real value of silver, given the level of debasing our currency has seen is only around $18-20/oz keeping in mind that this is still a 500% increase from just 10 years ago. Silver at $150/oz is a 3700% increase. You can always mark metals as compared to inflation however with silver there is far to much manipulation to accurately determine inflation, and thus it's harder to determine the real value. Unlike Gold, silver is cheap enough that certain funds could move millions of oz's one way or the other.

regardless, without an economic collapse silver will never see $150/oz or else we would have to see a very prolonged period of high inflation at least over a 10 year period.

reply to post by Skerrako
 


Hi. When you can have a discussion about economics without quoting, sourcing, or talking about in anyway the weimar republic I'll talk to you. It has nothing to do with anything except .... the weimar republic.

And by the way adjusted for real inflation Silver would only see an increase around 10-15% at most per annum.



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 02:57 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


18 to 20 based on what info

i have studied pms for about a decade while buying

silvers real price should be some where in the area of 65 to 75 an ounce



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 04:34 PM
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reply to post by Truther9111776
 


Silver is cheaper for several reasons. It's relatively easy to find. It has few industrial uses as it's a poor conductor. It's aesthetic qualities are preferential instead of luxurious. Ontop of easy to find it's also easy to mine, and it's mined in abundance compared to other precious metals.

Which is why Silver has always been incredibly cheap.. as I said, before 2001 it averaged $4/oz.

since then we've had some pretty bad inflation .. but "Real Inflation" sits at approx 10% to 20% depending on the year, and what is included. For silver you take inflation minus production and consumption to get the value of rarity. The end result is a cheap metal. Hell the only reason I even say it's as high as my estimate (max $20/oz) is because so many people are buying. If you take the rush into silver away given the levels of inflation and production silver would sit at around $10/13/oz

Same thing is happening with Gold .. it's no so much following actual inflation or the actual level of debasing as it is the level of fear in the economy as those with the money that can rush into metals. To me this is a new phenomenon that I attribute to sale and trade of futures in metals.. metals should only be traded in physical form. Because these markets exist where metals can be traded without actually seeing the metal we can only determine that a huge level of disorientation in the actual market is occurring. It would lead to either a large overpricing or underpricing .. in this case over pricing as not only do you have to calculate buyers buying above average for metals that may not even exist, but that it's being used a commodity would to guestimate the level of economic anxiety by manipulating the metal ... just like oil. We know oil isn't worth what it's selling for.. but because it's easy to trade on the systematic belief that it will rise or fall the price is distorted.



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 07:37 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 





Hi. When you can have a discussion about economics without quoting, sourcing, or talking about in anyway the weimar republic I'll talk to you. It has nothing to do with anything except .... the weimar republic.

And by the way adjusted for real inflation Silver would only see an increase around 10-15% at most per annum.



Well I always have this urge to back up my arguments with facts, if you don't like it too bad.

I like how you work, since you can't refute anything I say, you just dismiss the entire post. Ingenious

Where are you getting that 10-15% number from? Shield your eyes because here comes more of those pesky facts to back up my correct argument: The highest price silver has ever been was $50 in 1980. Even though from 1980 until now the rate of inflation change is 147.2%, silver has fallen in price, even though it should be up in the triple digits. Do the math yourself: www.usinflationcalculator.com...

History always repeats itself, and the rules of economic work for every country, even though the Bernake et.al seem to think (as you do) they do not. The lines between Weimar Germany and the U.S. are not the same, but they are parallel. Or do you think they are completely different? And if so please tell me why you think that

Edit to add: When you say "silver was 4 dollars an ounce" you are refering to the highly manipulated spot price. Back in 2000 you could not find silver for that price. The bullion and bar dealers simply didn't sell untill the price went up or their shelves would have been empty . If you did fine silver there was a $10 premium on it.

And do you think it was by mistake that silver started rising right when the bubbles started busting and the bailouts started happening?
edit on 20-6-2011 by Skerrako because: for the win



posted on Jun, 20 2011 @ 07:52 PM
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reply to post by Skerrako
 


Why was the price of silver so high in 1980?

In 1980 the price of silver was escalated due to the US Reserve issuing $2 billion ounces of silver as a loan (theoretically to banks or other nations) when the economy collapsed in the early 80's, which was a global recession, there was a rush into metals. At the time the Government exhausted it's own reserves of metals by infusing them into the markets as loans, this in effect actually doubled the existence of silver but meant only 50% of the silver in the market was "real". When people began buying Silver and never got a delivery there was a sudden panic resulting in a sort of "run on the bank" for all metals, including silver and gold.

The REAL price of Silver, had the Reserve not tried to manipulate the market would have been roughly $10/oz due to the economic times and inflation pressures. The Reserves intent was to be the middle man between large purchases in the order of 1million+ oz per order at a time .. usually to banks. This helped the markets stabilize because massive sales would technically be "off the market" .. the problem came when banks borrowed form the Reserve to make a sale, then loaned the silver to another buyer who then sold it .. creating a web of silver that doesn't exist.

WOW .. what do you know .. this is exactly what I described as happening several post ago today .. the markets we establish for spot pricing silver and selling "certificates" creates a myriad of issues. .chief among them being distorting the real value of the metal because the actual supply is unknown, resulting in volume that would otherwise be impossible.

Economics is not a universal law, every situation is entirely different.. certain principles do repeat and some never so .. the issues with the Republic were exclusive to the Republic .. in theory it could happen to any country but the likelihood is almost impossible that the same scenario would repeat. You have to understand the "why, how, when" and so on of certain situations to come to conclusion as to why they happened. Our current predicament economically speaking has never happened before, it's entirely new.. the closest thing to have occurred before was the 1929-1935 credit contractions. That scenario however was in no way related to the Republics issues either. Same thing with Zimbabwe, Hungary, Argentina, etc etc etc all different, all for different reasons so STOP for the love of god trying to say "well this is going to happen to us because it happened to the Weimar Republic!"

So .. conclusion:

Silver is only as high as it is because of market manipulation by banks, just like what occurred in 1980. If you want a freaking history lesson head this: Silver will crash.



posted on Jun, 22 2011 @ 03:30 PM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


So when this year is silver going to drop to 20-25 dollars???

And are you going to admit you were wrong when price is over 50 dollars this autumn???

Another "less than expected" forecast by the CNBC cheerleaders, who are constantly wrong yet get all the attention?!
edit on 22-6-2011 by john124 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 22 2011 @ 09:42 PM
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When it comes rising Silver prices and rates of inflation, some people are so US centric in their thinking, they totally neglect conditions in so called "emerging market economies". China and India, with massive populations and escalating inflation rates of 6% and 9.06% respectively, are presently competing neck & neck for the title of world's largest Silver consumer. Consider the effect of this massive supply off-take on the global pool of above ground silver stocks.

The 1980 peak & pop occured in January, before congress authorized the treasury to auction off what was left of the US Strategic Silver Stockpile.....sold at the behest of the commercial Silver lobby I might add, but that's another story.

And folks, I don't think you can have an intelligent conversation about the run-up to the Jan 17, 1980 peak without discussing the Hunt Bros, and the heavy handed regulatory attack that subsequently collapsed the market when Silver was forced "Sellers Only".


H.L. Hunt's Boys and the Circle K Cowboys

In the fall of 1979 the silver price doubled from $8 to $16/oz in only two months. Other syndicates with big money behind them started buying silver. The COMEX and the CBOT started to panic. In late 1979 the warehouses of the two exchanges only held 120 million oz of silver and that amount was traded in October alone.

Late in 1979 the CBOT changed the rules and stated that no investor could hold over 3 million oz of silver contracts and the margin requirement were raised. All contracts over 3 million oz per trader must be liquidated by February of 1980.

Bunker accused the COMEX and CBOT board members of having a financial interest in the silver market themselves. Investigations later found that many had substantial silver short positions. Bunker knew that a shortage now existed or they would not be screaming so loudly. He bought even more. The price on the last day of 1979 was $34.45/oz.

Finally on January 7th of 1980 the COMEX changed their rules to only allow 10 million/oz of contracts per trader and that all contracts over that amount must be liquidated before February 18th. The CFTC promptly backed up the ruling. On January 17th silver hit $50/oz, Bunker had continued to buy. At that point in time the Hunt's silver position was worth $4.5 billion dollars bringing their profits in silver to $3.5 billion dollars. On January 21st the COMEX announced that it was suspending trading in silver. They would only accept liquidation orders. - Full Text


I for one appreciate posters that can provide links to support random assertions. Along with adding credibility and authenticity to the writers position, linking to relevant material can also aid the reader when he's attempting to follow paragraph after paragraph of a seemingly random, mish-mashy, incoherent thought process.

Carry on gentlemen &

GL


edit on 22-6-2011 by OBE1 because: Very light housekeeping



posted on Jun, 23 2011 @ 01:17 AM
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reply to post by OBE1
 


Emerging markets have their own markets for precious metals.. If I were to go to India, or the ME, I could purchase Gold far cheaper than if I purchased here in the States. Not surprising that most jewelers and minters buy their gold and jewels from SE Asia and the ME.

Not to mention to get the rates of inflation in the price of silver we would have to see world intake go up 500% less we count inflation, which even then comes nowhere near to the actual demand for silver. That can only mean fear and manipulation are causing the prices to rise which in turn means unless the economy gets infinitely worse, at some point silver (and Gold) will crash.



The 1980 peak & pop occured in January, before congress authorized the treasury to auction off what was left of the US Strategic Silver Stockpile.....sold at the behest of the commercial Silver lobby I might add, but that's another story.


The Auction and the Lease of silver held by the Reserve are two entirely different things. The Reserve held 2 billion ounces in continuous circulation through loans via banks, the result was anywhere from 2-3 billion oz in certificates floating around the COMEX that didn't have physical backing.
www.essortment.com...
www.silverbearcafe.com...
www.marketoracle.co.uk...

Everything points to the price of silver being purposefully manipulated up and down through large institutions, mainly the Fed and the largest banks. There has been a sudden spike in the price of Silver and Gold in 2011 that was unfounded given the levels of consumer consumption and levels of inflation.. basically institutions are riding the metals as a bubble that will eventually collapse. It has to, eventually they'll just short the market to the point it crashes anyways.



Along with adding credibility and authenticity to the writers position, linking to relevant material can also aid the reader when he's attempting to follow paragraph after paragraph of a seemingly random, mish-mashy, incoherent thought process.


Linking a site that doesn't source is saying someone else holds more credibility over me .. For those of lesser intelligence that need either main stream news sources or other peoples assertions to go in concert with my own I'll give you some links. Of course, you could have always asked politely instead of being an ass.



posted on Jun, 23 2011 @ 05:13 PM
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Hey RP, could you put this paragraph into context as it relates to my previous post.


Originally posted by Rockpuck
Emerging markets have their own markets for precious metals.. If I were to go to India, or the ME, I could purchase Gold far cheaper than if I purchased here in the States. Not surprising that most jewelers and minters buy their gold and jewels from SE Asia and the ME.



Originally posted by Rockpuck
www.essortment.com...


A few quotes from your link:


What Was The Price Of Silver In 1980?

Ever since the Great Depression the United States had held two billion ounces of silver in the U.S. Strategic Stockpile.

In other words, the government loaned out, over time, two billion ounces of silver metal in return for two billion ounces of paper silver (IOUs).

Then the U.S. government demanded payment in some of its silver loans only to find that the silver had been consumed. All it got back was paper money, but little silver. - Full Text


Let me see if I have this right. By the 1980 top, the US had depleted it's Silver inventory through a series of [unsecured] loans to various counterparties...counterparties that ultimately defaulted...Silver that was never returned.

Is that more or less correct ?

You're paraphrase from post #16:


Originally posted by Rockpuck
At the time the Government exhausted it's own reserves of metals by infusing them into the markets as loans....


I'd really like to have this discussion but I need a little clarification first.

Thanks



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