Scratch another scenario: Scientist's predict rare "Hibernation" of sunspots

Check out this AFP article on Yahoo.com:

WASHINGTON (AFP) – For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications, GPS systems and even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection in the Earth's direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period 2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar fluctuations. "A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7 Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the latter half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted for only several decades or a century at most."

Linky

So now we have the Sunspot cycle ending for who may know how long. While this presents us with a "Calmer" set of scenarios for 2012, can we assume that this will last for how long? What its effects on our planet will be, as well as the other celestial bodies of our system? Will it act as a dramatic pause to preface the so-called "calm before the storm"?

Discuss!

reply to post by xacto


Yeah great thread, you know a little of your own opinion wouldn't go a miss. Anywho ever heard the saying "calm before the storm!".

ALS

reply to post by ALOSTSOUL


Lol! Epic look back, i posted right at the same time with some of my own and a reference to the very same quote!

reply to post by xacto


That is interesting, I was looking at this earlier today.
That being said, is there a reason that you posted a wall of text?
Just curious.
S&F

Originally posted by snowen20
reply to post by xacto

 

That is interesting, I was looking at this earlier today.
That being said, is there a reason that you posted a wall of text?
Just curious.
S&F

Ah, how rude of me. I fixed it, i also offered up some questions in the following post.

reply to post by xacto


Wasn't complaining, Just lost my place a couple of times and had to reread.
I'm reading it again though, thanks.

At the beginning I was mmmh. Then I found the article was one yahoo ... yeh right ... This whole thing is definitely ridiculous when you consider what just recently happened. Furthermore, it comes from washington, which makes it even worse. Calming down the masses as well here on ATS always has been the trick to keep us up in the box. This trick won't work for so long because the truth will be revealed soon my fellow ATSers.



Thruthseek3r

reply to post by thruthseek3r


So how long is long? I can't wait to see you eat crow! You might want to look up the locations of the observatories to see if any of them are from Washington. I've visited one where you can look at the screen and see the live image of the Sun. That was Kitt Peak in AZ.

I have a dog that does the same thing. Call it and it runs in the opposite direction. Researchers find something and a few people just have to run in the opposite direction. Be careful. My dog has been hit by cars due to its reckless contrarian habits.

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by thruthseek3r

 

So how long is long? I can't wait to see you eat crow! You might want to look up the locations of the observatories to see if any of them are from Washington. I've visited one where you can look at the screen and see the live image of the Sun. That was Kitt Peak in AZ.

I have a dog that does the same thing. Call it and it runs in the opposite direction. Researchers find something and a few people just have to run in the opposite direction. Be careful. My dog has been hit by cars due to its reckless contrarian habits.

You are very funny. On this subject, I ain't going to start any predictions saying that in a certain amount of time will hapen this and that. Personally I have nothing to prove, what I know and am sure of is definitely enough.

About your concer for contrarian habits, I would think we need more and more people who simply reconsider so easily anything they read as an ultimate truth, exceptionally from yahoo. Let me tell you that maybe one of your dog may have been hit by a car due to his contrarian habits, but you cannot stop the future. What has to happen will happen whether you like or not. How the world would be like if nobody would say '' hey can this be a mistake, or something totally made up ? ''

There are many ways to make statistics and studies say what you want to say. What we would need out there is a definite proof of an unbiased study, which would be hard to obtain, especially in this time frame. I'm waiting for your reply.


Thruthseek3r

reply to post by thruthseek3r


Here is what you posted.

This trick won't work for so long because the truth will be revealed soon my fellow ATSers.

So what is soon? Is this a day, a week, a year, or a decade, or longer?

What has to happen will happen whether you like or not.

Not sure if you are suggesting fate, but I do not believe in fate.

There are many ways to make statistics and studies say what you want to say.

Where are you going with this comment? Are you saying that the sun is, or is not going to "hibernate"?

What we would need out there is a definite proof of an unbiased study, which would be hard to obtain, especially in this time frame. I'm waiting for your reply.

There were 3 independent studies here. Are you suggesting 1 or more is biased?

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by thruthseek3r

 

Here is what you posted.

This trick won't work for so long because the truth will be revealed soon my fellow ATSers.

So what is soon? Is this a day, a week, a year, or a decade, or longer?

What has to happen will happen whether you like or not.

Not sure if you are suggesting fate, but I do not believe in fate.

There are many ways to make statistics and studies say what you want to say.

Where are you going with this comment? Are you saying that the sun is, or is not going to "hibernate"?

What we would need out there is a definite proof of an unbiased study, which would be hard to obtain, especially in this time frame. I'm waiting for your reply.

There were 3 independent studies here. Are you suggesting 1 or more is biased?

First question: When I say soon, it could be weeks or months. I am no Nostradamus so do not expect any precision for predictions as I said earlier. I only can tell you important changes are to come so prepare yourself to be open-minded.

Second: Mmh, sadly that you don't have such a belief. You could start experiencing synchronicity. You would realize that ain't no such thing as coincidences nor luck, only part of what has to happen. Altough my point isn't to convince you, you'll do whatever you want of it.

Third: Yes, I cannot say it won't, only telling you that studies can be manipulated to say whatever ones want the others to see. Maybe it's not the case maybe it is, who knows. Only pointing this out for you to consider this type of view.

Fourth: They could or not. Again there is no way I can prove it is biased nor you can prove it isn't. The point is I believe right now that a massive cover-up to what is really happening around the globe is in function. Too many things happening at the same time. One day it's doom and gloom and the other day they say everything is alright, then no it is not many weeks later. I say let's wait and see because we, little people with not much 100% certainty informations have a hard time knowing the ultimate truth.

US and UK still making preparations for controlled power grid shutdown in the event of a massive solar storm heading this way. I think that maybe we have a quieting period comming up but at the moment a damaging storm is still a real possibility. To take the conspiracy approach; Maybe the PTB want us to think that all is well and keep us from taking appropriate precausions, planning and preparing. Either way the threat of a solar induced catastrophic event seems to still be a cause for concern.

reply to post by thruthseek3r


So really you are making an open ended prediction that is so vague that anything that happens could fit this claim. I could suggest the same such as new cures, new technologies, new governments, new discoveries, ... blah, blah, blah, blah and I would be right because these are normal things to happen.

I was asked if I watched movies the other day> I thought I could have some fun and watch the Celestine Prophecy. What a pathetic movie. The filming is bad. The acting is atrocious. The backdrop for Peru is Patagonia. The tropical plants are in some cases African calla's. Then there is all of this synchronicity stuff. It's not realistic.

You would realize that ain't no such thing as coincidences nor luck, only part of what has to happen.

It's just apophenia . Of course there are coincidences. I do not believe in fate.

only telling you that studies can be manipulated to say whatever ones want the others to see.

And that is one of the reasons for peer review.

You have no proof of bias, but you suspect it. You probably have no idea how to find it or detect bias, but you are certain it is there. Why not do the hard work and show bias? Do you have the background to do it or is it easier to make baseless accusations?

2 magnets 1 more charged then other, other still charged
place them near each other BOTH effected 1 may be charged up by the others energy why the other seems calm
pull them near and the energy from both seems drained or compressed seperate them again 1 loses charge other originally charges BACK UP.

reply to post by Ophiuchus 13


Don't think you understand magnetism. Besides, what does this have to do with anything being discussed here?

Originally posted by stereologist
reply to post by Ophiuchus 13

 

Don't think you understand magnetism. Besides, what does this have to do with anything being discussed here?

When you place + and - charged mags together what happens.

there is a pull between the 2 mags. The pull isnt even pull if 2 mags not same material or size and especially density

Pull occuring between the 2 mags. 1 attracts the other with the more powerful charge (again + and - charges not same 1 is more powerful and 1 weaker).

Now when you pull them apart after attraction what happens you feel a lil snap between the 2 mags. This snap is both mags regathering their original energies. Notice the snap has FORCE when you seperate the 2 mags. Visualize this on a BIGGER SCALE INCLUDING THE "SNAP" and you got a mag/SOL and perhaps another ??
Be well

reply to post by Ophiuchus 13


Electricity is +/- while magnets are N/S. Quite different.

Now when you pull them apart after attraction what happens you feel a lil snap between the 2 mags. This snap is both mags regathering their original energies.

You do not understand magnetism. You are feeling not a transfer of energy, but of force. Quite different.

reply to post by stereologist


Ok very well my friend

reply to post by Ophiuchus 13


I totally get your point Opi. Don't try to explain further, I think he is limited to what you are talking about.