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Manufacturing Jobs Index has second worst crash in history

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posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 08:24 AM
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For those who don't know what the NY Empire State Index is.
What Does NY Empire State Index Mean


A seasonally-adjusted index that tracks the results of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The survey is distributed to roughly 175 manufacturing executives and asks questions intended to gauge both the current sentiment of the executives and their six-month outlook on the sector.

Investopedia explains NY Empire State Index
The NY Empire State Index is a regional economic indicator published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and released around the middle of the month. It's considered to be an indicator of economic conditions in one of the most populated states in the U.S.


The June report (PDF) :
If you want to see graphs, go down in the document...

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated in June. The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since November of 2010, falling twenty points to -7.8. The new orders and shipments indexes also posted steep declines and fell below zero.

-7.8 on expectations of 12.0... big big big miss.

What about six months from now?

The six-month outlook was notably less optimistic in June than in May. The future general business conditions index fell thirty points, reaching 22.5, its lowest level since early 2009. While the index was still above zero—an indication that conditions were expected to improve in the months ahead—its June decline represented the second largest drop in the index in the history of the survey.

So we're back at EARLY 2009... guess what, early 2009 was the depth of the depression...

Not to mention, prices paid (by the manufacturers for making stuff) continued to go up, while prices received (price at which the stuff was sold) went down again... meaning their profit margin are getting tinier and tinier because if they raise prices, people won't just buy the stuff.

And the employee workweek dropped a big 25 points in ONE MONTH...From about 23 to -2.04! Less hours worked = less money...

Anyway the whole report is REALLY REALLY REALLY BAD.

But not only that...
Raging Stagflation: Inflation Higher As Empire State Mfg Index Tumbles, Confirms Contraction

CPI increased 0.2% in May, higher than expected 0.1%, and up 3.6% Y/Y. This is the 11th consecutive increase in inflation. And so much for the CPI ex-Food and Energy which came at +0.3% on expectations of 0.2%, up from 0.2% in April: "The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008.

"The food index rose in May as well. The food at home index repeated its April increase of 0.5 percent as four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased, with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising the most. In contrast, the energy index, which had been rising sharply, declined in May. The gasoline index decreased for the first time since last June, although the index for household energy increased. The upward trend among the 12 month increases of major indexes continued in May. The 12 month change in the all items index, which was 1.1 percent as recently as November, reached 3.6 percent in May. The energy index has increased 21.5 percent over the last 12 months, the food index has risen 3.5 percent and the index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.5 percent. All of these figures have been rising in recent months."


Yay for stagflation... right?
edit on 15-6-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)




posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 08:44 AM
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Another northern state bites the dust.

How long will it take the yankees to realize the South won the civil war?

Please New Yorkers, if you decide to relacate do so out West and don't come South pass the Mason-Dixon line.

Wait, after a seconds thinking ya'll nice folks do come South we have some real good deals for you to spend you money on.
Why stop the money train now?



posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 08:51 AM
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reply to post by dizziedame
 


It's not about NY state... it's about manufacturing jobs across the countries. NY state is just an example... representing the whole country... it could be better/worse than the other states, but generally, it's a good representative of the whole situation.



posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 09:05 AM
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I think a lot of it has to do with supply train interruptions stemming from the Japanese quake. Give it a quarter and see if it recovers before proclaiming it as part of a wider trend.



posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 09:46 AM
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I do IT for a small southern company -- we manufacture a specialty product (not saying what) that is used by manufacturers as a sub assembly or process part in a very wide variety of industries. Most of our business is in the US.

We have had the best 4 months in 25 years. Have even added an overtime shift to get caught up.

Things were good enough at the end of 2010 That everyone got raises and bonuses.

The only thing I can say is that manufacturers are ordering more from us than they have in twenty five years.

The biggest problem I see with manufacturing in the US is that the jobs are being replaced with robotics and more advanced materials handling equipment. Other jobs are being sent overseas and more importantly what is being sent offshore to support the cheap labor is fairly sophisticated technology revolving around machining and process equipment, once that is gone then we are competing with countries that have cheap labor and advanced process equipment.That is going to be a problem.

If you watch the series "how it's made", you will see that most of the jobs consist of moving parts from one machine to another, not demanding work and without union backing not well paid work. That seems to be the future of the american manufacturing worker.

The cold hard truth is that a robot can replace a person of average IQ fairly easily. Most of the working population is of average IQ. The math doesnt work out so well for regular folks.

If you are a non regulated free market capitalist, congratulations - this is what your utopia looks like.
edit on 15-6-2011 by spyder550 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 10:19 AM
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There is nothing but bad news all around yet the markets march on. its so crazy whats happening.

We had a family meeting yesterday on whats going on and are preparing for the SHTF



posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 10:39 AM
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Originally posted by camaro68ss
There is nothing but bad news all around yet the markets march on. its so crazy whats happening.

We had a family meeting yesterday on whats going on and are preparing for the SHTF


the markets march on because the stocks listed in the "market' are global, not national. manufacturing in the US will continue to decline, wages will continue to decline for the bottom 75% of the population, and safety net government benefits will also continue to decline. the republican governors in several states are working on that locally, and the republican house of representatives is continuing that nationally.



posted on Jun, 15 2011 @ 11:07 AM
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Originally posted by jimmyx

Originally posted by camaro68ss
There is nothing but bad news all around yet the markets march on. its so crazy whats happening.

We had a family meeting yesterday on whats going on and are preparing for the SHTF


the markets march on because the stocks listed in the "market' are global, not national. manufacturing in the US will continue to decline, wages will continue to decline for the bottom 75% of the population, and safety net government benefits will also continue to decline. the republican governors in several states are working on that locally, and the republican house of representatives is continuing that nationally.


The "safety nets" must be cut to save the country but cutting those will creat more unrest. its a catch 22. The goverment of These Untied States is bankruput. time to defalt




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