'Major Result' on Sunspot Cycle to be Announced Tuesday

Originally posted by HappyBunny


Last winter is nothing compared to the 70's. When the 80's rolled around and the weather got warmer, we were glad because we didn't have to wear a hundred layers of clothes just to go outside.

I'm sure many people here remember the global cooling scare. It was going to be Death by Ice.

Funny how the same scaremongers then are the same scaremongers pushing global warming, isn't it?

Exactly. I had a Geology Professor in the early 70's who ranted continuously about the coming Ice Age, that most trees would be dead within 30 years, oil would be gone by now, materials to fuel reactors would be gone before now and right now we should be living in some kind of apocalyptic hell. I often wonder how well his serving of Crow went down and if it was tasty or not. But then he also predicted our ability to feed ourselves would end soon and by now half the earths population would have starved or be starving to death. Ironically they now produce many times the food on far less land.

Sadly the truth is that they push whatever keeps the research funding rolling in. I expect the doom and gloom cycle to bounce between warming and cooling every couple of decades, depending on what the fear of the hour happens to be. Global Warming is dead; long live Global Cooling!

Fear mongering has been a popular pastime among academics it would seem. I'm off to look for summertime bargains on insulated underwear.

reply to post by The Great Day


WOW! All I can say is get in touch with this guy...........He may be on to something!!

Wonder what the news will be. Giving me something to look forward to this evening!!

Originally posted by ExScientiaVeritas
These "scientists" really don't know what's going to happen as a result of what they thought might happen, but won't...at least they're not sure.

The sun's new solar cycle, which is thought to have begun in December 2008, will be the weakest since 1928. That is the nearly unanimous prediction of a panel of international experts, some of whom maintain that the sun will be more active than normal.

www.newscientist.com...

Analysis by scientist of detailed sunlight readings taken from 2004 to 2007 by NASA's (SORCE) satellite found that:

...although the Sun was putting out less energy overall than usual, in line with observations showing decreased sunspot activity, it actually emitted more in the key visible-light and near-infrared wavelengths.

www.theregister.co.uk...

Hence, we saw additional warming of the Earth due to the increase in energy from the Sun reaching us in visible wavelengths.

So...a decrease in sun spots sometimes makes for an increase in global temperatures. Yet we are now being told that a decrease in sun spots, likely signaling a solar minimum some have compared to The Maunder Minimum, might actually result in a decrease in global temperatures.

To me what they're saying sounds something akin to the daily meteorological prognostications we are bombarded with, that are either right or they're wrong and hey, sometimes the weather changes right?! They simply don't know! What's more is that so many people make a big deal of these predictions (educated guesses) and try to fool us into believing in consequences of something that may or may not exist.

I think the scientists would be much better off, and suffer less criticism and harm to their reputations, if they simply made their solar observations and left the guessing to the weather folks. At least when the weather guy gets it wrong, the world won't unexpectedly come to an end.

ESV

Couldn't agree more!

Here's the thing: When the B gauss reading of sunspots hits 1500, we won't be able to see them because they won't have enough contrast to be visible.

That being said, extrapolation to zero is a dangerous thing to do. If you pick any previous downward trend and extrapolate it till it reaches zero...did that zero actually occur? Ditto for any previous upward trend. The spots may be there, but if they're below 1500 we can't see them. The magnetism is still there, etc., but we just can't measure it.

We need to accept that our mere existence on this little blue speck is at the mercy of forces beyond our control. To think that we can outdo Mother Nature is just arrogant and naive.

reply to post by Blaine91555


Our short little lives, driven by the need to survive, often have a hard time seeing the big picture. I wonder what our take on all of this would be if the average Human life span was say...

1000 years.

In the meantime I don't want another ice age! Everyone always looks for wintery on top of mile high glaciers.

Originally posted by Blaine91555

Originally posted by HappyBunny


Last winter is nothing compared to the 70's. When the 80's rolled around and the weather got warmer, we were glad because we didn't have to wear a hundred layers of clothes just to go outside.

I'm sure many people here remember the global cooling scare. It was going to be Death by Ice.

Funny how the same scaremongers then are the same scaremongers pushing global warming, isn't it?

Exactly. I had a Geology Professor in the early 70's who ranted continuously about the coming Ice Age, that most trees would be dead within 30 years, oil would be gone by now, materials to fuel reactors would be gone before now and right now we should be living in some kind of apocalyptic hell. I often wonder how well his serving of Crow went down and if it was tasty or not. But then he also predicted our ability to feed ourselves would end soon and by now half the earths population would have starved or be starving to death. Ironically they now produce many times the food on far less land.

He must have been reading Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren.

Global warming would give us that extra land...something the fearmongers don't want to deal with. They've never been able to explain why warming is a bad thing.

If we should enter another Little Ice Age (doubtful, although if the sun goes quiet for awhile it'll get cooler, but probably not that cold), we have something they didn't have then: the technology to mitigate it and keep casualties to a minimum. Thankfully most of the world's poor already lives in the warm regions which might not even notice the difference. During the LIA some places were reduced to cannibalism just to survive.

Sadly the truth is that they push whatever keeps the research funding rolling in. I expect the doom and gloom cycle to bounce between warming and cooling every couple of decades, depending on what the fear of the hour happens to be. Global Warming is dead; long live Global Cooling!

Exactly.

reply to post by Helmkat


Even then people would freak out anytime there was a change in the weather.

There is a preservation society for the grand canyon.

A structure formed through erosion has a preservation society, go figure.

Man is only happy when there is no change, when everything is just exactly as they remember it, but that's never going to happen.

It's another reason why most people are so poorly prepared for disasters. Psychology calls it the "Normalcy Bias", if something hasn't happened before we assume it never will.

To mach fishy organizations we have in World today, we need our informations ..
Long Live Internet ..

Here some of NASA EVIDENCE ..

"Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."

"Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. "
Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms.

"Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect."

"Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. "The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future," says Hathaway. A picture is worth a thousand words:"
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4c451b77fb46.jpg[/atsimg]

"Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient."

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/96a2ce07c73c.gif[/atsimg]


science.nasa.gov...
www.ucar.edu...

Lo00ol..
theintelhub.com...
www.independent.co.uk...

"If we are right," Hill concluded, "this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."

And who said that the flares dont affect the earths climate. As for space travel for the Russians. ( because the US is not a player in space travel anymore.) How is this going to affect travel in space.

I'm very interested to see the the big news is... and if it is some knid of warning that gets downplayed.

I wonder if something is going on with the sun, and it effecting the earth's magnetics. The graph looks like it is going a bit crazy right now.
The magenometer here: 137.229.36.30...

This is what it usually looks like :137.229.36.30...

and: 137.229.36.30...

So what was the big announcement?

Meetings been over for a bit? anything? nothing?

Originally posted by GalacticJoe
Here is something else i saw about this last year:

Since 1990, Matthew Penn and William Livingston, solar astronomers with the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona, have been using a measurement known as Zeeman splitting to study the magnetic strength of sunspots. The Zeeman splitting is the distance between a pair of infrared spectral lines in a spectrograph taken of the light emitted by iron atoms in the atmosphere of the sun. The wider the distance, the greater is the intensity of the magnetic field.

Penn and Livingston examined 1500 sunspots and found that the average strength of the magnetic field of the sunspots has dropped from around 2700 gauss to 2000 gauss. (In comparison, the Earth’s magnetic field is below one gauss.) The reasons for the decline are unknown, but Livingston said that if the strength continues to decrease at the same rate it will drop to 1500 gauss by 2016, and below this strength the formation of sunspots appears to be impossible.
source

I thought this was really weird last year, but now they are being born out...

And these guys are most likely right. They have been predicting this since 90s and so far the data agrees.
This article also got some interesting graphs: wattsupwiththat.com...

reply to post by Helmkat


Considering where I live, I admit I'm not to keen on worse winters myself. Time to move to Florida I guess but then I'll just get wiped by a Hurricane. We can run but we cannot hide.

reply to post by HappyBunny


Like your name "HappyBunny", I fear no evil though I walk through the valley of warming/cooling debates as I am a happy guy.

I see the real shame here that science has been forced to engage in the never ending political game to secure funding. It excludes honesty from the whole equation.

I was looking forward to the global warming and longer warmer summers here. What a shame.

reply to post by tinker9917


reply to post by Shadowalker


Should try reading the thread. It's only 6 pages.

The Announcement

This is actually a rather interesting announcement. I told my parents that we might be in for some colder winters down the road, and dad told me to stop listening to "those stupid websites".

I might have to learn how to skate. Though, we can pretty much walk across Halifax Harbour already, no matter how cold it is.

Originally posted by Blaine91555
reply to post by HappyBunny

 

Like your name "HappyBunny", I fear no evil though I walk through the valley of warming/cooling debates as I am a happy guy.

Thanks! For I am the baddest bunny in the valley!

I see the real shame here that science has been forced to engage in the never ending political game to secure funding. It excludes honesty from the whole equation.

I think so, too. Even the ones who might want to speak out can't. They'd lose their funding and their careers in a heartbeat.

I was looking forward to the global warming and longer warmer summers here. What a shame.

It's mid-June and we're wearing jackets today. I'll take warmer winters, though. I don't mind summer at all.

reply to post by CLPrime


I did read the thread, and am speculating as are others.

Originally posted by CLPrime
reply to post by tinker9917

 

reply to post by Shadowalker

 

Should try reading the thread. It's only 6 pages.

The Announcement

Thats It? they were forecasting that for years.

More tripe to get people to pay for American Astronomical Society membership.

reply to post by Shadowalker


The big deal associated with this announcement is that, the last time this sort of lull occurred, the earth experienced a period known as the "little ice age". Interestingly enough, that period was also associated with an increase in volcanic activity.

Well in relation to the topic of the thread:

Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years. The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated. The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.

Visit the link for the whole shebang!
Even with this in mind, does anyone think that the solar max could be worse/less/flat-line that what is discussed here? I really wish I knew more about the sun's solar cyle(s) and the like so I could make an informed decision. =/