'Major Result' on Sunspot Cycle to be Announced Tuesday

Originally posted by aarys
sc25.com...

I see there is going to be a major annoucement Tuesday about our solar cycle. Is this announcement from nasa? Anyone know. Maybe they might say that the flares have got a connection to these volcanos. Who knows.

This is it, right?
Sun Has Gigant Supersonic Waves

Humongous waves of hot plasma roiling on the surface of the sun appear to be moving at speeds as high as 4.5 million miles per hour, a new study found. The waves are so huge it would take up to 16 Earths, end-to-end, to match them. It's the first unambiguous evidence that the sun's lower atmosphere contains such superfast "magnetosonic waves," scientists said. The fast waves have velocities of 2.3 million to 4.5 million mph (1,000 to 2,000 kilometers per second), periods in the range of 30 to 200 seconds, and wavelengths of 62,000 to 124,000 miles (100,000 to 200,000 kilometers), equivalent to stacking between eight to 16 Earths on top of one another.

- - - - -

Stanford University scientist Wei Liu, a research associate at the Lockheed Martin laboratory, presented the findings today (June 15) at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society in Las Cruces, N.M. The researchers also detail their discovery in a paper to be published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.

reply to post by tomten


Nope. The announcement was that there will be few, if any, sunspots for potentially the next few decades.
The last time this happened was a period a couple centuries ago called the "little ice age".

What I am interested in is the approximate temperature range in that period.... what is to be expected in a so called "little ice age"?

reply to post by heartfulloftruth

I guess it depends on where you are. The Little Ice Age affected Europe mostly.

reply to post by Phage


I live in Serbia and next week moving to live on a mountain. Recently the temperatures in this part of our planet have been very chaotic. I don't mind the cold, but what I want to understand is are the changes in temperature going to be extreme to be hard for living or just colder then usual... if that happens?

reply to post by heartfulloftruth

The prediction of low solar activity is a theory. No one knows if it is accurate.
If it is accurate, no one knows what effect it will have on the climate.
If it does have an effect on the climate it is very difficult to say how it will affect any specific region.

No one knows.

reply to post by Phage


You are so right. It was silly of me to ask in such manner.

i cant wait to see!

reply to post by Essan

I see you’re taking your position on the B Ark team seriously, Essan. Well done. That’s what we appreciate at STARK: people who get with the programme and go the extra mile in the pursuit of excellence in a challenging business environment...

Originally posted by doubledutch
I really hope they are linking the cme's to earthquakes and volcano's - would be good to finally have confirmation of this!

I don't! That will mean a new tax!

Very interested in what this "result" is but.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by heartfulloftruth

 

I guess it depends on where you are. The Little Ice Age affected Europe mostly.

Really Phage?...

This is just one research several show that in China there was a LIA, as well as the Medieval Warming Period...

Humid Little Ice Age in and central Asia documented by Bosten Lake, Xinjiang, China
Chen, FH and Huang, XZ and Zhang, JW and Holmes, JA and Chen, JH (2006) Humid Little Ice Age in and central Asia documented by Bosten Lake, Xinjiang, China. SCI CHINA SER D , 49 (12) 1280 - 1290. 10.1007/s11430-006-2027-4.

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract
Short sediment cores retrieved from Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, were used to explore humidity and precipitation variations in and central Asia during the past millennium. The chronology of the cores was established using (CS)-C-137, Pb-210 and AMS C-14 dating results. Multi-proxy high-resolution analysis, including pollen ratios of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae (A/C), carbonate content and grain size, indicates that the climate during the past millennium can be divided into three stages: a dry climate between 1000-1500 AD, a humid climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (c. 1500-1900 AD), and a warm dry period after 1900 AD. On centennial timescales, the climate change in northwestern China during the past 1000 years is characterized by oscillations between warm-dry and cold-humid climate conditions. All the proxies changed significantly and indicate increased precipitation during the LIA, including increased pollen A/C ratios and pollen concentrations, decreased carbonate content and increased grain size. The humid period during the LIA recorded by the Bosten Lake sediments is representative of arid central Asia and is supported by numerous records from other sites. During the LIA, the water runoff into the Keriya River and Tarim River in the Tarim Basin increased, while the ice accumulation in the Guliya ice core increased. Additionally, the lake levels of the Aral and Caspian Sea also rose, while tree-ring analysis indicates that precipitation increased. We hypothesize that both the lower temperature within China and the negative anomalies of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during this period may have contributed to the humid climate within this area during LIA.

eprints.ucl.ac.uk...

The LIA (Little Ice Age) and Medieval Warming PEriods in Africa...

The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa


P. D. Tyson1, W. Karlén2, K. Holmgren2 and G. A. Heiss3.

1Climatology Research Group, University of the Witwatersrand
2Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University
3Geomar, Wischhofstr. 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany; present address: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), P.O. Box 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany, E-mail: [email protected]



Abstract

The Little Ice Age, from around 1300 to 1800, and medieval warming, from before 1000 to around 1300 in South Africa, are shown to be distinctive features of the regional climate of the last millennium. The proxy climate record has been constituted from oxygen and carbon isotope and colour density data obtained from a well-dated stalagmite derived from Cold Air Cave in the Makapansgat Valley.
The climate of the interior of South Africa was around 1oC cooler in the Little Ice Age and may have been over 3°C higher than at present during the extremes of the medieval warm period. It was variable throughout the millennium, but considerably more so during the warming of the eleventh to thirteenth centuries. Extreme events in the record show distinct teleconnections with similar events in other parts of the world, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The lowest temperature events recorded during the Little Ice Age in South Africa are shown to be coeval with the Maunder and Sporer Minima in solar irradiance. The medieval warming is shown to have been coincided with the cosmogenic 10Be and 14C isotopic maxima recorded in tree rings elsewhere in the world during the Medieval Maximum in solar radiation.

home.arcor.de...

ruby.fgcu.edu...

MEdieval Warming and LIA in the U.S.A.

Medieval Warming, Little Ice Age, and European impact on the environment during the last millennium in the lower Hudson Valley, New York, USA


Abstract
Establishing natural climate variability becomes particularly important in large urban areas in anticipation of droughts. We present a welldated bi-decadal record of vegetation, climate, land use, and fire frequency from a tidal marsh in the Hudson River Estuary. The classic Medieval Warm Period is evident through striking increases in charcoal and Pinus dominance from ~8001300 A.D., paralleling paleorecords southward along the Atlantic seaboard. Higher inputs of inorganic sediment during this interval suggest increased watershed erosion during drought conditions. The presence of the Little Ice Age ensues with increases in Picea and Tsuga, coupled with increasing organic percentages due to cooler, moister conditions. European impact is manifested by a decline in arboreal pollen due to land clearance, increased weedy plant cover (i.e., Ambrosia, Plantago, and Rumex), and an increase in inorganic particles to the watershed.

Link

These events were GLOBAL in nature...but keep claiming they only occurred regionally meanwhile the evidence says the contrary...

With respect to the Little Ice Age, Newton et al. report Specifically, the SST record shows a distinct cooling trend beginning at ~1400 AD and lasting for several hundred years, a period equivalent in time to the Little Ice Age (LIA). In particular, the lowest temperatures (~28°C) occur around 1700 A.D., during the period of reduced solar intensity known as the Maunder Minimum.” Further, they write “These results clearly indicate a climatic cooling during the LIA that extended well outside the higher northern latitudes. In fact, the recognition that that tropical Pacific warm pool temperatures were as much as 1.5°C cooler during the LIA must be considered an important factor itself in establishing what caused the climate to cool as it did...

www.worldclimatereport.com...

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by heartfulloftruth

 

The prediction of low solar activity is a theory. No one knows if it is accurate.
If it is accurate, no one knows what effect it will have on the climate.
If it does have an effect on the climate it is very difficult to say how it will affect any specific region.

No one knows.

I can't believe it... Is Phage at last aware of the fact that AGW science is poppycock?...

But wait...is Phage also saying that previous climate events bear no importance on what they could tell us about the future?...

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


You must of missed the part where he said mostly.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


The problem with the LIA is that it started in the N Atlantic region and then spread - some places were at the height of the MWP whilst the Greenlanders were freezing to death.

It's simply not, er, simple.

But we do know that reduced axial tilt should mean a steady decline in temps - such as we've seen over the past few thousand years. Whether the current increase is an aberation due to natural reasons or something else remains to be seen. But it's certainly odd. Either way, the next cold period should be colder than the last, And the current warm period should likewise be colder than the last. Hmmm....

(note: notwithstanding which, we are NOT entering a new ice age, as apart from axial tilt, the other orbital parameters are remaining fairly steady. We just don't expect a return to Hypsithermal/Atlantic Period conditions for a good while yet)

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse

I can't believe it... Is Phage at last aware of the fact that AGW science is poppycock?...

I hear he doesn't believe the world is flat, the center of the universe and was created in 4004BC, either. What an idiot!

Originally posted by Essan

I hear he doesn't believe the world is flat, the center of the universe and was created in 4004BC, either. What an idiot!

And I have to wonder why in the world you have to use religion on this thread, when NO ONE has brought it up...

I was responding DIRECTLY to a claim made by him. If you don't like it that your idol is being called on his claims, that's too bad, but instead of playing his mother, perhaps you should let him speak/write for himself...

Originally posted by Essan
reply to post by ElectricUniverse

 

The problem with the LIA is that it started in the N Atlantic region and then spread - some places were at the height of the MWP whilst the Greenlanders were freezing to death.

It's simply not, er, simple.
...

ALL Climate Changes are not....simple...

Even the warming we had been experiencing was more extreme in some areas than in others, but still, lots of research proves that the warming of the 20th-21st century was neither the most extreme, nor the warmest. In fact the Medieval Warm Period was warmer globally than at any time during the recent warming.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by ElectricUniverse

 

You must of missed the part where he said mostly.

IT was global event, which didn't happen mostly in Europe.

Perhaps you don't understand that the concept that such events, like the LIA and the Medieval Warm and Roman Warm Periods were GLOBAL in nature, and the research that supports the fact that they were global in nature do not corroborate the claim that "it happened mostly in Europe" because it happened globally...

2. Causes For The Little Ice Age:
...
5. Ocean-Atmosphere Conveyor System:
-Occurs only in the N. Atlantic ocean-atmosphere domain.
- Warm tropical Gulf Stream ocean currnts and winds are conveyed up to the north to meet cold Arctic waters and air.
- Within this area you have atmospheric lows and highs:
atm. lo: Forces air away from air mass center due to correolis effect. Outward tending winds will force ocean currents to diverge from the center as well.
atm. hi: Opposite of atmospheric lo.
- It is these divergent tendencies of the N. Atlantic that keeps the Gulf Stream powered. If an atm. hi replaced an atm. lo currents would converge, thus weakening the Gulf Stream which was thought to possibly have occured during the LIA.
- Lack of warm winds and currents reaching the north would not warm the cold climate of the north possibly producing snow and ice.
- This idea holds very sceptical because this event was localized, whereas the LIA was a global scale event.

www.atmos.washington.edu...

For years Phage has been pushing the claims of Jones, Mann, et al, the same scientists who were caught in the AGW scam, and Phage claimed, alongside some others, that the LIA, Medieval Warm, and Roman Warm Periods were only localized/regional events when the evidence from around the world says the contrary.

Glacial and climatic conditions of the LIA are most thoroughly documented in northern and western Europe by extensive historical accounts, instrumental data, and proxy climate indicators. This report, entitled “Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages,” provides a new glacial chronology that reinforces the notion of the Little Ice Age and other well documented Northern Hemisphere climate fluctuations were global in scope. As stated in the report:

Published chronologies of late Quaternary glacier fluctuations in the central Andes are based on a combination of radiocarbon, lichenometric, and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating methods. However, robust age control of Holocene glacial deposits remains notably sparse. Here, we report high-precision cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure ages of the two most prominent Holocene glacial episodes in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of southern Peru. This new glacial chronology augments nearby ice core, lacustrine, and marine paleoclimate records.

www.theresilientearth.com.../peruvian-glaciers-prove-little-ice-age-was-global

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
the Medieval Warm Period was warmer globally than at any time during the recent warming.

No it wasn't.

But the Hypsithermal/Atlantic Period was.

Axial tilt has changed since then, hence the decline in global temps. Whether the current upturn is natural or not remains to be seen. But it's not expected.

Edit: which doesn't change the fact that the LIA started in the N Atlantic regions and only reached the S Hemisphere 200 years later. Whatever you god tells you.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

- This idea holds very sceptical because this event was localized, whereas the LIA was a global scale event.

Pretty poor english. Maybe you should use a source other than an undergraduate student project.
www.atmos.washington.edu...


I didn't say the Little Ice Age was restricted to Europe. I said that it affected mostly Europe and that is true. I said that any effects would depend on where you are.

The term Little Ice Age is, instead, reserved for the most extensive recent period of mountain glacier expansion and is conventionally defined as the 16th–mid 19th century period during which European climate was most strongly impacted.

The problem with saying that the Little Ice Age was a global event is that the "global" effects are spread over a pretty wide time scale.

For example, the 17th century, the coldest century in Europe, does not appear to have been unusually cold in North America. By contrast, during the 19th century, as Europe was recovering from Little Ice Age conditions, North America was experiencing some of its coldest temperatures. There are reports, for example, that New York harbor froze over during this period of time.

A Little Ice Age is not as plainly evident in temperature estimates for Western Greenland (panel d), reinforcing the notion that the collapse of Norse civilization in Greenland was not simply a response to cooling temperatures.

www.meteo.psu.edu...

Here's what the paper used in the blog post you cited says.

Despite geologic evidence suggesting that the LIA was a global phenomenon (13), exact temporal relationships between worldwide glacier chronologies from this interval are poorly defined due to difficulties in establishing precise moraine ages. Glacial and climatic conditions of the LIA are most thoroughly documented in northern and western Europe by extensive historical accounts, instrumental data, and proxy climate indicators. The LIA maximum occurred across Europe within the past 500 years, but records show asynchronous
maxima in Scandinavia (~C.E. 1750) (23) and the Swiss Alps (~C.E. 1860) (24). The
10Be-dated culminations in the Cordillera Vilcabamba show similar timing and temporal variability and support broad coherency between glacier maxima in the tropical Andes and in
Europe during the late LIA. In contrast, a highresolution 10Be chronology of Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (25) reveals that the dominant glacial event of the last millennium occurred around C.E. 1400 and was followed by several more pulses before the final termination, highlighting a marked difference with the Peruvian record and implying a complex global pattern of glacial events during the LIA period.

www.unh.edu...
The question was

what is to be expected in a so called "little ice age"?

My answer was that it would depend on where you are. The climatological effects are not consistent. That was my point.

I can't believe it... Is Phage at last aware of the fact that AGW science is poppycock?

Can you point out where I have ever claimed that AGW is a fact? Can you point out where I have ever claimed it is poppycock?