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SETI and the Drake equation

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posted on Jun, 11 2011 @ 06:41 PM
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Originally posted by PhotonEffect

Originally posted by Donegal_TDI

And in particular, prey on new naïve planets that have just started leaking radiation from their comms into space,
Like a big bright beacon alerting them to the newbie on the block,




I hear what you're saying. But please excuse my ignorance on this question only because I'm not well versed in the implications of leaking EM radiation into space...

We're so extremely tiny in the vastness of the cosmos that we can't even be seen. So how would our leakage of EM radiation be detectable at such a small scale? How bright of a beacon could we really be emitting out into space? My guess is not bright at all....


"Bright beacon", in this case,
can be considered a relative term,
any signal not naturally occuring
that raises it's head even slightly above
the cosmic noise floor,
sufficient for detection,
could attract attention if someone knows what to look for,
and what it would mean.
If there is a very old predatorial race in the cosmos,
they will know what to look for as, statistically speaking,
it is highly unlikely that we are the first to leak
radio signals, and they would have detected these
many times perhaps in our quadrant of the galaxy.
Once our location is on someone's "radar" so to speak,
it would only be a matter of time until they get around
to us on their list, how this manifests itself in our reality,
is anyones guess, as once again we are dealing
with the unknown mixed with a lot of suppositions.
But to me, it is a very real potential threat.
As well as domestic radio leakage, there is also
a very specific em signiature
blasted out into space from all the nukes that were tested
from the mid 40's on,
and this may have relevance to the massive increase
in UFO sightings from that time forward.
Anyway, my keyboard is small and my thumbs are very big,
so, more later.




posted on Jun, 11 2011 @ 07:55 PM
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Originally posted by Donegal_TDI
"Bright beacon", in this case, can be considered a relative term,
any signal not naturally occuring that raises it's head even slightly above the cosmic noise floor, sufficient for detection, could attract attention if someone knows what to look for, and what it would mean.
If there is a very old predatorial race in the cosmos, they will know what to look for as, statistically speaking,
it is highly unlikely that we are the first to leak radio signals, and they would have detected these
many times perhaps in our quadrant of the galaxy.
Once our location is on someone's "radar" so to speak, it would only be a matter of time until they get around
to us on their list, how this manifests itself in our reality, is anyones guess, as once again we are dealing
with the unknown mixed with a lot of suppositions.
But to me, it is a very real potential threat.


That's an amusing campfire story you have there. However, given both the modern and historical accounts of visitations, it's pretty evident that many alien races are out there and have known about us for as long as our history records. I don't think we're in any danger from radio signals leaking out.

The greys and their allies have near total control of this solar system and of our species. There have apparently been other myriads of different visitors, which is neat, but it seems that very short and infrequent visits are all they can manage. Likely occurring in defiance of the greys/reptilians.



posted on Jun, 11 2011 @ 09:07 PM
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Originally posted by Donegal_TDI

Originally posted by PhotonEffect

Originally posted by Donegal_TDI

And in particular, prey on new naïve planets that have just started leaking radiation from their comms into space,
Like a big bright beacon alerting them to the newbie on the block,




I hear what you're saying. But please excuse my ignorance on this question only because I'm not well versed in the implications of leaking EM radiation into space...

We're so extremely tiny in the vastness of the cosmos that we can't even be seen. So how would our leakage of EM radiation be detectable at such a small scale? How bright of a beacon could we really be emitting out into space? My guess is not bright at all....


"Bright beacon", in this case,
can be considered a relative term,
any signal not naturally occuring
that raises it's head even slightly above
the cosmic noise floor,
sufficient for detection,
could attract attention if someone knows what to look for,
and what it would mean.


But how is it that our minuscule EM leakage (when compared to the enormity of space) is sufficiently strong enough to be detected above the cosmic noise floor? We're atomic in size. Wouldn't it be swallowed up (so to speak) by all the other radiation in space?

Not to mention, as another poster pointed out already, that we're constantly moving through space. How would we be found?


If there is a very old predatorial race in the cosmos,
they will know what to look for as, statistically speaking,
it is highly unlikely that we are the first to leak
radio signals, and they would have detected these
many times perhaps in our quadrant of the galaxy.


Quite speculative. If they're predatory, and have zeroed in on our corner of the galaxy, certainly we would've been attacked already... And if it's statistically possible (based on the drake equation I guess?) that there are all these other civilizations out there blasting out radio signals right in our corner of the galaxy, then why haven't we detected any of them yet?

How long do you think it takes before just one signal is even detected? Then you've got to get to it. Except the source of the signal won't be there when you arrive.


Once our location is on someone's "radar" so to speak,
it would only be a matter of time until they get around
to us on their list,


How much time? Since there doesn't appear to be any civilization within hundreds of light years in all directions of us, how long will it take to be found. If they can even find us. The chances have to be so tiny..



posted on Jun, 12 2011 @ 04:42 PM
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Originally posted by Observer99

Originally posted by Donegal_TDI
"Bright beacon", in this case, can be considered a relative term,
any signal not naturally occuring that raises it's head even slightly above the cosmic noise floor, sufficient for detection, could attract attention if someone knows what to look for, and what it would mean.
If there is a very old predatorial race in the cosmos, they will know what to look for as, statistically speaking,
it is highly unlikely that we are the first to leak radio signals, and they would have detected these
many times perhaps in our quadrant of the galaxy.
Once our location is on someone's "radar" so to speak, it would only be a matter of time until they get around
to us on their list, how this manifests itself in our reality, is anyones guess, as once again we are dealing
with the unknown mixed with a lot of suppositions.
But to me, it is a very real potential threat.


That's an amusing campfire story you have there. However, given both the modern and historical accounts of visitations, it's pretty evident that many alien races are out there and have known about us for as long as our history records. I don't think we're in any danger from radio signals leaking out.

The greys and their allies have near total control of this solar system and of our species. There have apparently been other myriads of different visitors, which is neat, but it seems that very short and infrequent visits are all they can manage. Likely occurring in defiance of the greys/reptilians.

I started off this post with the quote "a dose of reality".
Reality is what both seti@home and the SETI intitute are all about,
finding irrefutable proof about the existance of off world intelligence.
Both organisations rely heavily on volunteer time and donations
and there are many unsung heroes doing stalwart work in the background,
as well as countless volunteers around the world
devoting computer time and resources.
This is the real world of science, proof, and it ain't easy.
Unsubstantiated claims are well and good,
and no one more than me would be happier to greet a friendly alien,
if they are visiting us.
I know off world intelligences exist.
I would bet my eternal soul on it,
but speculation is only that,
and until some breakthough takes place involving
our elusive visitors breking their silence,
I'm happy crunching numbers.



posted on Jun, 12 2011 @ 05:22 PM
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Originally posted by Donegal_TDI
I started off this post with the quote "a dose of reality".
Reality is what both seti@home and the SETI intitute are all about,
finding irrefutable proof about the existance of off world intelligence.
Both organisations rely heavily on volunteer time and donations
and there are many unsung heroes doing stalwart work in the background,
as well as countless volunteers around the world
devoting computer time and resources.
This is the real world of science, proof, and it ain't easy.
Unsubstantiated claims are well and good,
and no one more than me would be happier to greet a friendly alien,
if they are visiting us.
I know off world intelligences exist.
I would bet my eternal soul on it,
but speculation is only that,
and until some breakthough takes place involving
our elusive visitors breking their silence,
I'm happy crunching numbers.


SETI, to me, seems schizophrenic. "We refuse to believe any claims of aliens on Earth. The massive mountain of eyewitness reports, pictures and video contains no proof. We will find aliens ourselves, sending us messages from light-years away. That will be proof." Huh??

I'm sorry, but there have been far too many credible people that have come forward with personal, eyewitness accounts of encounters with ships / beings. Police officers, ex-military, etc. "Eyewitness accounts are not proof." OK, never? Not from anyone, not in any quantity even? And nowadays with our computer tech, essentially any video or picture could have been faked. So there is no video or picture which could ever qualify as "proof" either. I could be sitting here with a camcorder randomly running as I type this, have an alien ship land in my yard, tape them leaving the craft, post it on here and some people will still be like "cool video bro, what program did you use?" The people who refuse to believe will continue to refuse to believe.

I fail to see how SETI has more credibility than police officers and ex-military. Say they claim they receive a signal. How do I know they aren't lying? Now it's also corroborated by other ground-based stations. How do I know they aren't just faking it together? I would need to be able to receive the signal with my own, personal equipment. That is likely not going to be possible. And even if it were, it could still just be from some manmade transmitter, either near earth, or launched years ago and sent out to the edge of the solar system in the direction of some star. Even if you tried to use parallax to prove that it wasn't a distant source -- the satellite could be programmed to move proportionally with the earth, to give the appearance of proper parallax.

The point -- any evidence can be discounted, if you are sufficiently intent on disbelief. To me, as a rational, intelligent skeptic, looking at the body of evidence, I find it nearly impossible that it's ALL false.



posted on Jun, 12 2011 @ 05:41 PM
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Seti has found evidence but is covering it up



posted on Jun, 13 2011 @ 08:11 AM
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Originally posted by fishspeaker
Seti has found evidence but is covering it up


This is NOT true.
I know some of the people in the SETI Institute,
and this is most definitely not the case.
They live and breathe what they do
and no way in Gods earth could they be suppressed.

They are very very clever people,
and know what to look for,
and the man made/celestial signals to ignore.
They certainly are not in it for the money and fame,
which is most peoples motivation for doing anything.

What other people see in the sky I am not discounting in any way,
and I have a very open mind to such things.
But unfortunately this field is riddled
with pseudoscience, religious nuts, prophets and hoaxers,
and it is hugely difficult to sift the hay from the chaff.
But sufficient numbers persist in that if only a tiny fraction are true,
there could be profound implications for us all.

I have suggested here before that ATS should have a vault
for evidence that posters can vote on potential entries to,
and the only way content can be included to said vault,
is if the majority consider that it is not manufactured evidence.
There are enough experts on here whose views are respected
that a qualified decision could be made.
edit on 13/6/11 by Donegal_TDI because: addition



posted on Jun, 13 2011 @ 10:35 AM
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And in particular, prey on new naïve planets that have just started leaking radiation from their comms into space,
Like a big bright beacon alerting them to the newbie on the block


I'm a lot less worried about this than Mr. Hawking....and here's why.

Why do people fight?

Seriously....no matter what the CLAIMED reason, there is really only ONE reason.

Control over resources. Simple as that.

However, if a race had the capability of traversing the stars....what resources would they possibly need that they can't get without contest elsewhere? The answer is...NOTHING.

If they wanted water, they could process an Ice world. If they want metals, mine metallic worlds, etc. No fuss, no muss, no war.

So, it would stand to reason that interstellar travelers probably won't have conquest on the mind. Of course, doesn't mean all aliens would think like us, but until we have another benchmark, that's all we've got for comparison.



posted on Jun, 13 2011 @ 01:38 PM
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Originally posted by Donegal_TDI
A dose of reality for a little while.

I’m an active participant in the seti@home project and having recently passed my 10,000,000th work unit
It has heightened my curiosity as to why the cosmos in our vicinity is so quiet from an detectable elecromagnetic/radio point of view.
I have been kicking an idea around for some time in my head,
(snip)
I understand the Drake equation, but there may be an additional factor which could be included.
(snip).

Opinions?


Kick this "idea" around but don't take too long! Frank Drake is given a lot of press for his "equation" which is a lot of rubbish. Frank is just one human being on this planet. He has no extraordinary knowledge and anyone from a school student can come up with an equation just a as viable as Frank's. He uses numbers an he guesses. He has no verifiable evidence of any life similar to ours anywhere but on planet earth. Anyone who uses his "equation" is just being as big a fool as he is.

Here's my equation: Zero plus zero equals zero!



posted on Jun, 13 2011 @ 01:56 PM
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Originally posted by Gazrok

And in particular, prey on new naïve planets that have just started leaking radiation from their comms into space,
Like a big bright beacon alerting them to the newbie on the block


I'm a lot less worried about this than Mr. Hawking....and here's why.

Why do people fight?

Seriously....no matter what the CLAIMED reason, there is really only ONE reason.

Control over resources. Simple as that.

However, if a race had the capability of traversing the stars....what resources would they possibly need that they can't get without contest elsewhere? The answer is...NOTHING.

If they wanted water, they could process an Ice world. If they want metals, mine metallic worlds, etc. No fuss, no muss, no war.

So, it would stand to reason that interstellar travelers probably won't have conquest on the mind. Of course, doesn't mean all aliens would think like us, but until we have another benchmark, that's all we've got for comparison.

All good points.
But elements and minerals are a fairly static lot. don't change much and most likely prevalent among "dead" worlds, and if that's what they are after,
I agree with you, they would most likely follow the least line of resistance.
While I believe life is common place on a galactic scale, earth may be of interest in other areas, flora & fauna have had a long time here to play out and evolve, genetics could be their area of interest in both plant and animal life. Earth itself could be a jewel they desire, as it has a pretty stable habitat long term, and could be quite a rarity. Most likely our technology would be like cheap tat to them. Who knows what they could be after,
maybe our souls



posted on Jun, 13 2011 @ 02:38 PM
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Originally posted by Donegal_TDI
A dose of reality for a little while.


I understand the Drake equation, but there may be an additional factor which could be included.
IMHO, it’s a statistical certainty that there are many technologically advanced civilisations in our Galaxy at various stages of development.



Not sure what you mean by "various" stages of development. The Drake equation is only estimating the number of civilizations that could be sending radio signals that the SETI program would detect. It's not clear to me that you are proposing a new factor. It is overwhelmingly likely that such a detectable civilization would be far older than hours, and presumably more advanced, although what "stage" this represents is anyone's guess.

As to the hostility of said civilizations, a good review of the arguments is here: Sentient Developments



posted on Jun, 14 2011 @ 05:53 AM
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Originally posted by disownedsky

Originally posted by Donegal_TDI
A dose of reality for a little while.


I understand the Drake equation, but there may be an additional factor which could be included.
IMHO, it’s a statistical certainty that there are many technologically advanced civilisations in our Galaxy at various stages of development.



Not sure what you mean by "various" stages of development. The Drake equation is only estimating the number of civilizations that could be sending radio signals that the SETI program would detect. It's not clear to me that you are proposing a new factor. It is overwhelmingly likely that such a detectable civilization would be far older than hours, and presumably more advanced, although what "stage" this represents is anyone's guess.

As to the hostility of said civilizations, a good review of the arguments is here: Sentient Developments


Excellent link, btw.

I agree, there isn't anything revolutionary in the Drake equation,
anyone with a science background could have come up with it,
but he DID come up with it,
and put it before the scientific community
and even allowed his name to be associated with it,
only a brave person does this in an area of science
that unfortunately is perceived by many as to be in the realm of wackos.

Why do I agree with Stephen Hawking's view that visitors may not be benovelent?
Put it this way.
To come up with the technology in the first place for interstellar travel,
a species would have to invest really major bucks and resources so to speak.
Ask yourself who on our planet has the big bucks, yes, the military.
Who protects the technology with secrecy and prosecution, yes, the military.
Who has the ultimate say as to how the technology is used, the military.
Who has the power to run black projects and get the fools you and I to pay for them, the military.

Now when the military get to play with their toys when deployed in a theatre,
it isn't associated with flower arranging, tree hugging and posy waving,
they go there to kick ass whatever the agenda is.

So if an alien armada is deployed from their homeworld to somewhere in the Galaxy,
the payoff would need to be huge.
I still don't know what that payoff might be and at the moment is only speculative,
as is most things in this thread.

On the other hand advanced aliens might be self sufficient,
need nothing from us,
but are out in the Cosmos to do good,
maybe to do mischief, contain territory or play God with genetics.
Maybe they consider themselves missionaries, spreading truth,
sure as hell we need some hard facts in this area, bring it on!
Maybe they are exploring the mystery of conciousness,
and trying to attain immortality.

Genetics, could be the ultimate technology,
as I am constantly bewildered as to what it can come up with naturally.
I think there is a much much bigger story here than we are remotely aware of.

But at the moment I will settle for genetic engineering and immortality of consciousness
as being high up on the space faring alien agenda.

Stay well.

edit on 14/6/11 by Donegal_TDI because: typo



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