It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

SETI and the Drake equation

page: 1
6
<<   2 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 06:13 AM
link   
A dose of reality for a little while.

I’m an active participant in the seti@home project and having recently passed my 10,000,000th work unit
It has heightened my curiosity as to why the cosmos in our vicinity is so quiet from an detectable elecromagnetic/radio point of view.
I have been kicking an idea around for some time in my head,
And I thought I would share my views if you have the time.
I understand the Drake equation, but there may be an additional factor which could be included.
IMHO, it’s a statistical certainty that there are many technologically advanced civilisations in our Galaxy at various stages of development.

Now why don’t we easily see/hear evidence of this?
It is my view that only civilisations like ours will be leaking EM radiation out into the cosmos,
A civilisation that has only “recently” acquired technology and has had no widespread contact with any extra-terrestrial species,
And as such may not be aware of the reality that potentially exists out there.

As in all things in nature, there are predators and prey in the food chain.
Our esteemed friend Stephen Hawking has iterated that some spacefaring ET travellers are likely to be not that friendly,
May prey on worlds they encounter for resources,
And in particular, prey on new naïve planets that have just started leaking radiation from their comms into space,
Like a big bright beacon alerting them to the newbie on the block,
Ripe for the picking and unlikely to be capable of putting up much of a fight.
No more kicking around dust ridden dead worlds for them.

If this scenario exists, other worlds, once clued in, would have taken remedial action to contain what they leak out,
Hence our quiet skies. It may not be a healthy policy long-term for any civilisation to declare their whereabouts to all and sundry.
An ape hiding in the undergrowth from a predator in unlikely to spontaneously break into a few bars of Bohemian Rhapsody,
Not a wise long-term bet for survival of their genes.

If this scenario is true, there is a second point, and that is for the first time since we evolved from a common ape ancestor,
that we are likely in some real danger from a predator that is not earth based.

The good guys out there could let us know,
But in so doing would be giving away their own location
And likely not prepared to suffer the risk.

As to whether the above merits inclusion to the Drake equation in some form,
Based as it is on assumptions,
Is up to those in the know.
But if it is true,
It would greatly reduce the amount of worlds we could potentially detect using current means.
As well as applying to radio signals,
This would also apply to lasers
Or any other technology that would leak energy out into interstellar space
Which could be traced back to the point of origin.

Opinions?




posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 06:23 AM
link   
So, how would civilizations shield their em leakage? Would there be no mass media? No "over the air" radio and tv broadcasts? No satellite communications? Do you think their planets would be covered in fiber optics or something? Or do you suppose some sort of massive em shield covering the planet and any off world outposts?



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 06:46 AM
link   

Originally posted by sonofliberty1776
So, how would civilizations shield their em leakage? Would there be no mass media? No "over the air" radio and tv broadcasts? No satellite communications? Do you think their planets would be covered in fiber optics or something? Or do you suppose some sort of massive em shield covering the planet and any off world outposts?


It's amazing how innovative one can get with technology if the need exists


One of the only good things to come out of the arms race is the technology we have today.

If there was a provable risk that we would get our collective asses kicked from an off world threat,
then it WOULD happen. All comms would be limited to cable, fibre or very narrow beam point to point microwave radio.
Omni directional radio transmissions would be banned.

Ronald Reagan hinted at this threat and inferred that all our petty squabbles would disappear,
so that we could work together for once.
Now what did he know, as Commander in Chief,
that we don't.
edit on 10/6/11 by Donegal_TDI because: typo

edit on 10/6/11 by Donegal_TDI because: typo



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 07:05 AM
link   
How would those "shielded worlds" know they should hide? Who gave them this advice? It couldn't be other worlds, because, like you said, they would be giving away their positions, and it is very unlikely that they would find out by themselves before it was too late, don't you think?



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 07:07 AM
link   
Thinking outside the box there is an argument to be made for a species that is noisy. Any civilisation "blasting" signals out into space may be doing so to attract the attention of a predatory species in order to eliminate it. Something to ponder over.



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 07:17 AM
link   

Originally posted by Raven_Heart
How would those "shielded worlds" know they should hide? Who gave them this advice? It couldn't be other worlds, because, like you said, they would be giving away their positions, and it is very unlikely that they would find out by themselves before it was too late, don't you think?


Perhaps a little friendly advice from a benevolent visitor?


They would need, however, to convince some very important and influential people,
to make this happen.



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 07:22 AM
link   

Originally posted by PW229
Thinking outside the box there is an argument to be made for a species that is noisy. Any civilisation "blasting" signals out into space may be doing so to attract the attention of a predatory species in order to eliminate it. Something to ponder over.


They would need to be packing some serious firepower to pick a fight with the unknown.

Compare our weapons technology today,
with that which we had just 100 years ago,
there would be no match.

Malevolent Alien weaponology most likely would be 10's of 1000's of years more advanced,
particularly if thay have rapid interstellar travel capabilities.



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 07:26 AM
link   

Originally posted by Donegal_TDI

Originally posted by PW229
Thinking outside the box there is an argument to be made for a species that is noisy. Any civilisation "blasting" signals out into space may be doing so to attract the attention of a predatory species in order to eliminate it. Something to ponder over.


They would need to be packing some serious firepower to pick a fight with the unknown.

Compare our weapons technology today,
with that which we had just 100 years ago,
there would be no match.

Malevolent Alien weaponology most likely would be 10's of 1000's of years more advanced,
particularly if thay have rapid interstellar travel capabilities.


Would you, as a warmongering species (humanity), attack another planet that you don't know anything about? Just because you've got advanced weapons, doesn't mean that you're indestructible. Then again, warmongers rarely stop to rationalize.

Besides, I like the idea of interplanetary fishing!



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 07:36 AM
link   

Originally posted by SpongeBeard

Would you, as a warmongering species (humanity), attack another planet that you don't know anything about? Just because you've got advanced weapons, doesn't mean that you're indestructible. Then again, warmongers rarely stop to rationalize.

Besides, I like the idea of interplanetary fishing!


Exactly! Something I called "The Nemesis Principle" many many years ago, in fact over a decade ago now. Wish I could find the article I wrote but quite a few moves, changed computers, change ISP's etc has caused it to be lost into the ether and I can't be bothered to write it again.

Basically it boils down to this, any space-faring predatory race is on the road to a beating at some point. To coin a cheap phrase, "No matter how tough you think you are, there is ALWAYS someone tougher." A predatory race only has to come across that "tougher" race once and that's it, game over.



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 08:08 AM
link   

Originally posted by PW229

Originally posted by SpongeBeard

Would you, as a warmongering species (humanity), attack another planet that you don't know anything about? Just because you've got advanced weapons, doesn't mean that you're indestructible. Then again, warmongers rarely stop to rationalize.

Besides, I like the idea of interplanetary fishing!


Exactly! Something I called "The Nemesis Principle" many many years ago, in fact over a decade ago now. Wish I could find the article I wrote but quite a few moves, changed computers, change ISP's etc has caused it to be lost into the ether and I can't be bothered to write it again.

Basically it boils down to this, any space-faring predatory race is on the road to a beating at some point. To coin a cheap phrase, "No matter how tough you think you are, there is ALWAYS someone tougher." A predatory race only has to come across that "tougher" race once and that's it, game over.


Would like to have read that article.

The catch with technology of most kinds,
is that it has the inconvenient habit of becoming redundant,
superceded by the newer potent thing.
Staying "current" for a techy predatory race
would be a big deal.

Then again,
a race that relies heavy on their clever stuff,
that could be their undoing.
It's unlikely those using the weapons,
would have the brain power of those that created their latest pea shooter.
Might be a few ctrl-alt-del moments

edit on 10/6/11 by Donegal_TDI because: typo



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 08:43 AM
link   
We are the parasite,we are the problem,we are directed by a evil race .The more you read the more you will understand the control system.If you really understand what is happening on this planet you will understand
our system of corporations is resource explorers and evil entities.The VATICAN is at the head of the beast.
We are a Geo engineered planet,and race.The aliens have been here for a long time.
If you knew how long you could live without the parasite corporate turnover ,you would believe the position we are all in now .



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 09:29 AM
link   
reply to post by Donegal_TDI
 


Why do we assume that they would need to have developed radio to have reached high technology?

Maybe they use another form of communication. Perhaps one that we deny exists. ESP? I'm sure there are things we don't know just yet.

This is why, in my opinion, SETHI is a complete waste of money. Spend some cash on exploring Europa/Titan. Maybe put it towards building one of these new super dupa high earth orbit telescope array thingemies that keep getting cancelled. If we can 'see' the planet, we can 'taste' the atmosphere, we can determine if life is present. Next, we try to communicate if we so wish.

Not knocking you for using SAH, OP. I just reckon there are higher priorities.

effeness....

Laze xx



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 09:35 AM
link   
reply to post by madjetxe
 


Cheer up, fella. It may never happen



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 09:39 AM
link   

Originally posted by PW229
Exactly! Something I called "The Nemesis Principle" many many years ago, in fact over a decade ago now. Wish I could find the article I wrote but quite a few moves, changed computers, change ISP's etc has caused it to be lost into the ether and I can't be bothered to write it again.


Google it !



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 09:52 AM
link   
There are actually many variations on the Drake equation...



It has heightened my curiosity as to why the cosmos in our vicinity is so quiet from an detectable elecromagnetic/radio point of view.


It's simple really. It's all about windows of time.

Not only do we have to be listening in the right direction, and on the right frequencies, but also with the right technology and exist in the right time.

Here's an example.

Say alien civilization A did use radio waves to call out to the stars. Their first signal was 500 years ago and the last signal was 100 years ago (since then, they went to a different mode of communication we cannot yet fathom or detect). So, that signal is on it's way, but even if they are relatively close to us, that first signal sent 500 years ago could STILL be on it's way to us!

Flip side. Alien Civilization B used the radio 10,000 years ago, and their last signal got to us 500 years ago. We didn't have radio then, so missed out.

Another angle. Alien Civilization C STILL uses radio, with their first signal sent 1 year ago. Let's say they are real close, and it takes only 100 years to get to us. Well, won't be here for a while, and by then, WE may not be using radio anymore, and will simply miss the low-tech signal.

So, the galaxy could be TEEMING with life and even radio communication, but with the vast distances in space, it's all about being in the right TIME window to detect another's broadcast.

It's like looking for a particular grain of sand in all of the beaches of the world, and not knowing which beach to start with. That's basically the challenge of SETI.

Of course SOMEONE has to win the lottery too, and beat those odds, so good luck ladies and gentlemen!



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 01:07 PM
link   

Originally posted by LexiconV

Originally posted by PW229
Exactly! Something I called "The Nemesis Principle" many many years ago, in fact over a decade ago now. Wish I could find the article I wrote but quite a few moves, changed computers, change ISP's etc has caused it to be lost into the ether and I can't be bothered to write it again.


Google it !


If only it were that simple
The article was one of the first I had ever written (in fact I'm pretty sure it was only the second I got paid for after an article on building your own telescope for Astronomy Magazine in the early 90's). It was written as part of a bizarre new idea Compuserve had, a page with a variety of links to news and exclusive content, yep, you guessed it, a portal! Back in the 90's! The article was for their "Sci-Fi" section and I was paid the princely sum of $15 for it (wow, I celebrated THAT night I can tell you!) Suffice to say it is still out there somewhere, where even the tentacles of the GoogleBot cannot reach.

Slightly off topic I know, Mods, my humble apologies.
edit on 10-6-2011 by PW229 because: Proof read BEFORE posting dammit! Added an "a."



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 01:24 PM
link   

Originally posted by Gazrok
It's simple really. It's all about windows of time.

Not only do we have to be listening in the right direction, and on the right frequencies, but also with the right technology and exist in the right time.



Snipped the quote, hope you don't mind Gazrok.

Anyway, very good point and excellent example of the paradox of listening at the right time. One thing I would like to add that builds on your comment is the problem of technologically advanced races becoming increasingly silent due to increases in the efficiency of their technology.

In the past it was necessary to literally bombard the airwaves with a signal so it could be picked up by inefficient television and radio receivers. As our technology has advanced the efficiency of receivers has increased to the point where now we can send very low power, highly directional signals. If one looks at satellite television you see a perfect example, the signal is aimed downwards, towards our planet and the reflected signal is minuscule. Eventually ALL television will be digital/ satellite and we will effectively fall silent.

So looked at in this perspective it fits neatly into your hypothesis. The actual time that humanity has been broadcasting its presence is going to end very soon. The first radio broadcast took place in 1906, humanity will be effectively "silent" by 2020, 114 years. On the cosmic time-scale this isn't even a blip, it's not even an atom in the ink of the word "blip."



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 02:22 PM
link   

Originally posted by Gazrok
It's simple really. It's all about windows of time.


It is not just looking in the right place at the right time, it is also about existing at the right time. If lower estimates for the Drake Equation are accurate, it is possible we as humans represent the current pinnacle of advanced civilization. That is, we may not be truly alone but functionally alone by virtue of the state of development of other species. It may be that other intelligent species have not yet developed the means to communicate over the vastness or that we are living in a sort of galactic dark age.

And in facing the (seeming) galactic silence, we must also consider the Great Filter concept, that something, some universal principle, somewhere along the timeline of a species' development, acts to stunt or destroy a species before it becomes too advanced. The scary part of it is, this principle, this agent, is not known and where it lies on that timeline is unknown; we could be past it or it be waiting for us. It could be advance species do themselves in or that the universe is a very dangerous place, with all sorts of natural cosmic disasters wiping out species.
edit on 10-6-2011 by WingedBull because: (no reason given)



posted on Jun, 10 2011 @ 05:32 PM
link   

Originally posted by WingedBull

Originally posted by Gazrok
It's simple really. It's all about windows of time.


It is not just looking in the right place at the right time, it is also about existing at the right time. If lower estimates for the Drake Equation are accurate, it is possible we as humans represent the current pinnacle of advanced civilization. That is, we may not be truly alone but functionally alone by virtue of the state of development of other species. It may be that other intelligent species have not yet developed the means to communicate over the vastness or that we are living in a sort of galactic dark age.

And in facing the (seeming) galactic silence, we must also consider the Great Filter concept, that something, some universal principle, somewhere along the timeline of a species' development, acts to stunt or destroy a species before it becomes too advanced. The scary part of it is, this principle, this agent, is not known and where it lies on that timeline is unknown; we could be past it or it be waiting for us. It could be advance species do themselves in or that the universe is a very dangerous place, with all sorts of natural cosmic disasters wiping out species.
edit on 10-6-2011 by WingedBull because: (no reason given)

I totally agree guys about the time window, as crucial an element as any other factor in the search, maybe even the most important of the lot. In the cosmic time scheme, our little hundred years or so that we have had radio receiving capabilities is almost meaningless and would require a huge element of luck to be listning at the right time for planets in our neighbourhood. Anyway, more replies on Monday as I'm at home now out in the sticks where theres no broadband, only GPRS and a tiny keyboard



posted on Jun, 11 2011 @ 03:12 PM
link   

Originally posted by Donegal_TDI

And in particular, prey on new naïve planets that have just started leaking radiation from their comms into space,
Like a big bright beacon alerting them to the newbie on the block,




I hear what you're saying. But please excuse my ignorance on this question only because I'm not well versed in the implications of leaking EM radiation into space...

We're so extremely tiny in the vastness of the cosmos that we can't even be seen. So how would our leakage of EM radiation be detectable at such a small scale? How bright of a beacon could we really be emitting out into space? My guess is not bright at all....



new topics

top topics



 
6
<<   2 >>

log in

join