Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

Tropical Storm Arlene Forms

First named system of the Atlantic season.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2708ee2de58f.jpg[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6359c56dd382.jpg[/atsimg]

So it looks like it will miss us and we actually do really need some of this rain, see previous post regarding drought in our region.

Satellite loop

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


i was hoping for some of that storm here in s tx. we need it bad. never seen so many dead corn fields out here.

Arlene formed Tuesday evening in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is churning toward Mexico with an expected landfall on early Thursday as a strong tropical storm. However, there is some chance it could strengthen into a category one hurricane. Hurricane warnings have been issued for this possibility.

Outside of some welcome rainfall in far South Texas, Arlene will have no major impacts on the United States.

Well the track shows a jog to the north:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d3aef8224e1a.jpg[/atsimg]

But the projected path still shows Mexico as the primary recipient of this system:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e498844ccbc0.jpg[/atsimg]

Quote and image source

New Tropical Depression Forms

The third tropical depression of the eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed off the Mexico coast.

The center of the system is expected to remain offshore, however it could bring locally heavy showers and wave action to some coastal areas. Strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Calvin. Track this latest system using the maps below.

source

Map:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/50525049844c.jpg[/atsimg]

Track:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/731f1ac03aae.jpg[/atsimg]

And in the Atlantic Basin we have this:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c499a773c5f4.jpg[/atsimg]

Just a quick note of appreciation for your efforts and updates to this thread.

I'm glad someone is doing it ♥ Thank you ♥

National Hurricane Center Predicts Above Average 2011 Season

abcnews.go.com...

So far so good... where are they? The GOM is certainly heated up and ready.

Not much going on in the Gulf of Mexico presently:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4e7616dca2fa.jpg[/atsimg]

Historically we have this pattern for the current time period:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/65c7e39b53d5.jpg[/atsimg]

So we're not likely to see much along the Gulf if the pattern holds.

Even with the small amount of rain we've had locally, we are still under a sever drought watch:

OK so how did you get your topic tagged to the top of Fragile Earth then? Are you some kind of Moderator or what?

I would have thought it would have been courteous to have used the Hurricane 2011 Topic already started way back in January. (by me) for your observations.

Hurricane/ Cyclone/ Typhoon Watch 2011

Or change your title to what it really is about " Northern Hemisphere Hurricane Watch 2011"

Originally posted by muzzy
OK so how did you get your topic tagged to the top of Fragile Earth then? Are you some kind of Moderator or what?

I do not know, I never asked for it to be and quite frankly expected this one to be closed and no, I am not a moderator in any form or fashion. I've got too much going on IRL to be able to devote the requisite attention to such a task.

I would have thought it would have been courteous to have used the Hurricane 2011 Topic already started way back in January. (by me) for your observations.

Hurricane/ Cyclone/ Typhoon Watch 2011

I was entirely willing to do this after your thread was pointed out to me in this post as you can see by what I said in my reply to the previously linked post.

Or change your title to what it really is about " Northern Hemisphere Hurricane Watch 2011"

As you can see, I did indicate that I attempted a search but your thread did not come up in the results. I saw your thread some days after I made this one and by that time the expiration for edit-ability had passed and a few other posters had since replied.

No slight or offense was intended toward you or your thread in any way whatsoever. I have no problems at all if it is decided by the mods that this thread should be closed and will contribute to your thread in the same manner in which I have been involved in this and the other threads I post on in these forums.

And I do have some information on a few Pacific systems within this thread.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


OK then I didn't see that post inside your Topic, so nothing personal then eh
Not saying your work in not worthy in any way, what happens on the West Coast of Central America affects us too here on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, via El Nino/ La Nina patterns.
We all share the same Planet, and weather is not isolated to one particular country or region.

It would have been better to have both Hurricane seasons in the one thread, to be able to see the big picture.

I'll make a suggestion/ complaint to ATS management and see if they can either transfer your thread into mine or vis-versa, if thats OK with you.

Not holding my breath about it though, from what I have seen on ATS they are a bit tardy in keeping things tidy.

It pays to complain

See your topic has a new title "Northeren" Hurricane Watch 2011
Well done Moderators, only took a few hours, too bad you spelled Northern wrong
Thank you.

A victory for the little guy

Actually I'm not very little, 6ft 3"and 95kg

Now we have the categories sorted

Typhoon Ma-on (08W)

about to hit Japan in the next few days

www.usno.navy.mil...

Date Time Position Speed km/h Wind km/h Gust km/h Category Course Wave Pressure Source
2011-07-11 16:07:42 N 18° 6.000, E 157° 18.000 6 56 74 Tropical Depression 270 8 JTWC
2011-07-12 04:07:45 N 18° 30.000, E 155° 6.000 15 56 74 Tropical Depression 280 10 JTWC
2011-07-12 10:07:52 N 18° 42.000, E 155° 30.000 7 65 83 Tropical Storm 300 11 JTWC
2011-07-12 15:07:25 N 18° 54.000, E 154° 24.000 7 65 83 Tropical Storm 300 11 JTWC
2011-07-13 11:07:47 N 19° 42.000, E 151° 24.000 24 102 130 Tropical Storm 275 15 JTWC
2011-07-13 17:07:01 N 19° 48.000, E 150° 18.000 20 120 148 Typhoon I. 270 17 JTWC
2011-07-14 05:07:06 N 20° 6.000, E 147° 0.000 28 167 204 Typhoon II. 280 24 JTWC
2011-07-14 11:07:01 N 20° 6.000, E 146° 12.000 15 167 204 Typhoon II. 270 24 JTWC
2011-07-14 15:07:16 N 20° 12.000, E 145° 6.000 20 176 213 Typhoon II. 275 29 JTWC
2011-07-15 05:07:35 N 20° 24.000, E 142° 30.000 20 204 250 Typhoon III. 275 21 JTWC
2011-07-15 10:07:48 N 20° 36.000, E 141° 24.000 19 213 259 Typhoon IV. 280 16 JTWC
2011-07-16 05:07:08 N 21° 6.000, E 138° 42.000 17 194 241 Typhoon III. 290 18 JTWC
(current position)
2011-07-17 15:07:13 N 24° 24.000, E 134° 36.000 20 185 232 Typhoon III. 320 ° 18 JTWC
2011-07-18 06:00:00 N 27° 54.000, E 132° 48.000 Typhoon IV. 232 278 JTWC
2011-07-18 18:00:00 N 29° 48.000, E 132° 36.000 Typhoon IV. 222 269 JTWC
2011-07-19 06:00:00 N 31° 30.000, E 133° 12.000 Typhoon IV. 213 259 JTWC
2011-07-20 06:00:00 N 34° 0.000, E 136° 30.000 Typhoon II. 176 213 JTWC
2011-07-21 06:00:00 N 34° 24.000, E 141° 6.000 Typhoon I. 139 167 JTWC
2011-07-22 06:00:00 N 33° 0.000, E 147° 24.000 Tropical Storm 102 130 JTWC

reply to post by muzzy


This looks to be far enough south that any major damage from the wind field will be offshore. I would not be surprised to see minimal damage structurally in the Fukushima area unless any particular building or section thereof is previously in a weakened state.

The biggest issue will be the airborne radiation releases taken up by the storm itself from the westerly prevailing winds that are resultant from the cyclonic motion of the storm. The increased rainfall may keep some of the contaminants down, but will will wash more into the Pacific than has already been done.

Any further seismic agitation will only compound the problem.

btw, I 'm a huge fan of your posts in Quake Watch along with Volcano Watch and was quite impressed with what you and Puterman managed to winkle out with those seismos and the mystery quakes in the south.

Maybe next year we can have one central "Storm Watch" thread with various subsidiaries for specific storms, eh?

Tropical Storm Bret forms east of Florida

source

Looks like it came up quick:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/654aff08d0db.jpg[/atsimg]

Radar shows this:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ce8b6e354532.jpg[/atsimg]

But it looks to stay a fish storm:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1600f5eaf83c.jpg[/atsimg]

The east coast may see some increased wind and rain chances, but all in all this one looks not to affect us much.

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

National Hurricane Center

We need the rain!

We're still under sever drought conditions in the Texas Gulf Coast.

Shouldn't see a lot of development but anyone familiar with GOM storms also knows that they can intensify very quickly.

Update:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/95b2b1f56328.jpg[/atsimg]

NHC says:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

Looks like Central to Southern Texas Coast is going see some much needed rain. Winds will be moderate, so I don't expect extensive damage unless there is preexisting weakness of structure.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

This is good news when you look at this:



I'm headed to the beach in a bit to see if I can catch some surf!

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


Long term weather predictions for the USA, NZ and Australia (Melbourne and Sydney) are not good for around 25 September 2011.

reply to post by bluemirage5


Got a linky to share for that?

Had a great time at the beach by the way, my 4 year old tore it up on the boogie board and didn't want to stop!

ETA: I will say that the waters of the Gulf were very warm, which lends itself to the possibility of rapid strengthening so let's keep our eyes on Tropical Storm Don shall we?

Update:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/da1786f49bb3.jpg[/atsimg]


Looks to be taking a southern tack:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0742d21f4321.jpg[/atsimg]

The area just north of Brownsville looks to be the current target, this is indeed a good bit south of where it was expected to make landfall this morning.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/cc19d6e892e1.jpg[/atsimg]

Invest 91L looking interesting




NHC gives a 30% of becoming a TD in the next 48 hrs.