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Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

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posted on Aug, 31 2011 @ 09:05 PM
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Originally posted by berkeleygal
We better hope this one doesn't hit and cause way more damage.

Didn't I hear that FEMA is out of money? And they are appealing to the government to give them more? There seems to be a huge fight about it. I mean really? They can give hundreds of millions of dollars to rebuild Iraq and they can't be bothered to help US CITIZENS who need help NOW?

I am disgusted with it all.


They are almost out of money.They have put a hold on all new claims from previous disasters,like the Joplin tornado.
I agree,bring our troops home,stop spending our money overseas,and spend it hear.
But this is not the thread for that,we should start another one addressing this topic.




posted on Aug, 31 2011 @ 09:11 PM
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...some real old covered bridges were destroyed by the floods too...


www.nytimes.com...



posted on Aug, 31 2011 @ 09:18 PM
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Originally posted by Wyn Hawks
...some real old covered bridges were destroyed by the floods too...


www.nytimes.com...


Yeah,I'm sorry for their loss but there is still flooding going on,people are stranded with no food or water,homes destroyed.45 people have lost their life so far.
And people on here and everywhere balked at the idea that a cat 1 hurricane would do any damage.
Where are they now?



posted on Aug, 31 2011 @ 10:11 PM
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Originally posted by kdog1982
And people on here and everywhere balked at the idea that a cat 1 hurricane would do any damage.


..."would do ANY damage"?... i doubt few if any actually said that... what i saw was people who had been thru many hurricanes being skeptical of all the sensationalism and rightfully so... however, thats a topic for another thread - not this one, imo...

...i posted the article about the old covered bridges being destroyed because i have an artistic / emotional attachment to them and figured someone else might to...



posted on Aug, 31 2011 @ 10:28 PM
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Originally posted by Wyn Hawks

Originally posted by kdog1982
And people on here and everywhere balked at the idea that a cat 1 hurricane would do any damage.


..."would do ANY damage"?... i doubt few if any actually said that... what i saw was people who had been thru many hurricanes being skeptical of all the sensationalism and rightfully so... however, thats a topic for another thread - not this one, imo...

...i posted the article about the old covered bridges being destroyed because i have an artistic / emotional attachment to them and figured someone else might to...


And you fail to mention the loss of life,loss of property,people stranded without food and water,and you are worried about some covered bridges?

I'm sorry for being insensitive to your artistic/emotional loss.Those bridges were much needed for those communities that they served .
edit on 31-8-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 12:19 AM
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I been posting a lot in other threads. Figured I would come to the main thread as well.

I just checked out the latest report on Katia and it looks like they are expecting a more North Westernly type of turn in the next few days. This could put it on a track to impact the US. However, there is still a lot of ocean and a lot of time between then and now so it can still change course. That being said, a NW turn does concern me.


The hurricane is expected to remain in a low shear environment and over warm water during the next day or so...which should favor additional strengthening.


In my opinion you can take that Cat 3 by Saturday projection to the bank.


The initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a subtropical ridge during the next 2-3 days. After 72 hours... Katia will be nearing the southwestern portion of the ridge. This should result in a reduction in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the northwest.


Source

Now there is a second low that has a high probability of forming into a tropical storm. I have been watching this for a couple days now and every day the chances are climbing that it is going to form. This storm is off the coast of Cuba and appears like it will make a home in the Gulf of Mexico. It is forming in the same area which Hurricane Mitch formed. It is worth keeping a close eye on this over the next day or two.

NOAA



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 01:18 AM
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Honestly i expect katia to take a more northerly twist later on, and drift back east. Although anything is possible, GFS shows this one staying away from land.



The stir in the gulf is my biggest concern right now.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:47 AM
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reply to post by JackBauer
 


I am right with you. I have been watching that disturbance in the Gulf for a couple days now. It started off as a 10% chance to form, went up to 30% and now it is greater than 60%. The water in the Gulf right now is 90+ degrees.. plenty warm enough for this thing to come together. Also as I have mentioned before, at least I think I mentioned it once in another thread, this is the same location where Hurricane Mitch formed. As a resident of the Gulf Coast I will have my eye on this storm.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 08:57 AM
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M wife showed me a video of one of those bridges being swept away. It broke my heart.

This affects the areas the bridges are in a number of ways; socially, economically, aesthetically, transportationally. I think it highly appropriate that it be mentioned along side the general flooding, wind damage, power outages, etc. All are affects attributable to Irene.

Any deaths caused (by any natural disaster) fall in to their own category as those will have very personal and long-term effects. the human aspect of any situation should always be considered.

 


I've got my eyes on the new depression forming in the GOM as well. Keep the updates coming folks!



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 12:19 PM
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So now there's a 80% chance of a tropical storm in the Gulf...

And a 50% chance of a tropical storm in the atlantic near the eastern coast.

And Katia will probably get to Cat.2-3 this week-end...

Worst case scenario, 2 tropical storm and one hurricane cat 3 hits the US at roughly the same time.

And another one is forming near Africa.

Gulf Storm Prompts Evacuations as Hurricane Katia Heads West

A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will probably strengthen into a storm that may threaten energy production, while Hurricane Katia is forecast to grow into a major storm in the Atlantic this weekend.

Meteorologists led by Matt Rogers at Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland, said in a note to clients today that the Gulf system has a 30 percent chance of becoming a Category 3 major hurricane that would disrupt oil and gas output.

At AccuWeather Inc., in State College, Pennsylvania, meteorologists forecast “that this will be an extensive, slow- moving system, capable of affecting the same area for days with downpours, stormy seas and rough surf conditions,” Alex Sosnowski, expert senior meteorologist, said on the company’s website. Ten to 20 inches (25 to 51 centimeters) of rain may fall on the north-central coast, he said.

“If that storm develops, it will likely sit in the Gulf for a couple days,” said Sean Miller, project manager for Kinetic Analysis Corp., a Silver Spring, Maryland-based firm that predicts the effects of disasters. “Right now, the models are pretty divergent as to where it will make landfall, but it will probably be somewhere in southern Texas.”

Holy...
Anyway, Texas needs the water... they haven't had rain since last fall...
edit on 1-9-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 01:39 PM
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edit on 1-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)


Been trying to upload a sat pic of all three systems,finally got it to work.




www.goes.noaa.gov...
edit on 1-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)


Another of the water vapor.




www.ssd.noaa.gov...
edit on 1-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 02:51 PM
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The latest threat for this weekend for the gulf coast.
The mayor of New Orleans just had a press conference about being prepared for flooding.





At this early juncture, the primary threats appear to be torrential flooding rain and at least some coastal flooding, high surf and rip currents (a vastly underrated killer, by the way). We outline those areas most at risk in our "threat level" graphic below



This tropical system could "loaf and lollygag" (technical term) for several days along or near the Gulf Coast.



Residents and those with plans along the Gulf Coast late this week into the Labor Day weekend and next week should monitor the situation closely. There have already been evacuations of some personnel from offshore oil rigs.


www.weather.com...
edit on 1-9-2011 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 03:14 PM
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reply to post by kdog1982
 

Not New Orleans again...


Hopefully the storm doesn't turn into a hurricane...



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 03:29 PM
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Originally posted by Vitchilo
reply to post by kdog1982
 

Not New Orleans again...


Hopefully the storm doesn't turn into a hurricane...


I don't think going be anything other than a tropical depression just hanging around dumping a bunch of rain.
Hope those levees hope up in NOLA.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 03:31 PM
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reply to post by kdog1982
 


Well about the levees...
New Orleans levees get a near-failing grade in new corps rating system

A new Army Corps of Engineers rating system for the nation’s levees is about to deliver a near-failing grade to New Orleans area dikes, despite the internationally acclaimed $10 billion effort to rebuild the system in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, corps officials have confirmed.

Larger events, however, would cause flooding, they found. Reviewers estimated those events could kill as much as 3 percent of the area’s population and inundate as many as 191,180 structures, resulting in $47.7 billion in damage.

I don't know if the rain coming down on NO in the next few days (10 to 20 inches (25 to 51 centimeters)) is above the 100 year event flood... but I hope not...

So better hope the levees hold... even if it's ``just`` a tropical storm or New Orleans is screwed for good this time.
edit on 1-9-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 03:37 PM
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Here is the latest spaghetti models on where the disturbance in the gulf is going:



they are saying it's possible we'll get 20 inches of rain by Monday!



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 05:52 PM
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Ok... there are now 3 systems to watch.

#1. The depression in the Gulf of Mexico. Weather Underground has put up some models on this depression which runs a VERY high risk of forming into a tropical storm. You can see the model at the link below. The model appears to show this thing making landfall around Saturday or Sunday in Louisiana.

Weather Underground Model

#2. Tropical Storm Katia. This is expected to turn into a hurricane around 2am Friday. Still plenty of ocean and warm waters. Still worth keeping an eye on.

The GFS...ECMWF...and hfip consensus models are in good agreement for the first 3 days. After that there is more uncertainty in the forecast as the model spread increases. Some models suggest a turn toward the west as the subtropical ridge rebuilds to the north of Katia...while others suggest that the weakness will persist...bringing the cyclone farther north. The official forecast lies between these scenarios and is very close to the hfip consensus.


Link to full report as of 5pm 9/1/2011

#3. There is a new low forming off the coast of the Northeast States. It currently has a 50% chance to form and can be seen in the image if you click the link below.

Link

My obvious concern is for the storm in the Gulf. The models suggest this thing is coming straight for my backyard.
edit on 1-9-2011 by MrWendal because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 06:24 PM
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You guys, what would happen of the TS in the gulf pushes north east, and the Katna pushes north west, so they both meet just south of NY, even tho they won't be hurricanes what would happen under this scenario ???



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 06:28 PM
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



posted on Sep, 1 2011 @ 06:54 PM
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Originally posted by rancher1
You guys, what would happen of the TS in the gulf pushes north east, and the Katna pushes north west, so they both meet just south of NY, even tho they won't be hurricanes what would happen under this scenario ???

Won't happen.

Anyways. It is now a tropical depression.... and will be a tropical storm tomorrow... chances of hurricane are slim IMO... maybe a category 1...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.


Watch out if you are in New Orleans and that area...

What I'm concerned with is the oil... still leaking from BP's well... and COREXIT... I bet there's still lots of it in the Gulf...
edit on 1-9-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)



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